Skip to comments.Not surprisingly Democrats are falling behind in enthusiasm as Election Day gets closer
Posted on 10/09/2012 10:37:13 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A just released Politico/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll (PGWUBTP) says Barack Obama is leading 49/48 a statistical tie reached before The Debate. That is the extent of the good news for Obama. This is another poll whose underpinnings fall short of delivering hard data to justify a lead for Obama.
Here is the really bad news for Obama: Democrats who Rasmussen reports are registered at a rate 2.6% less than Republicans (in 2010 Republicans enjoyed an edge of 1.3% and the roof fell in on the Democrats) are only 73% extremely likely to vote.
Republicans who are sitting on that lead already are 86% extremely likely to vote.
This produces an actual lead of 52/46 for Mitt Romney among those extremely likely to vote a 9 point swing in his favor in the last two weeks when Obama was leading 50/47.
But how is Obama doing among his key voting blocs?
White voters who will make up 2/3 of voters favor Romney by 15% and are 82% extremely likely to vote.
By contrast PGWUBTPs survey message said this about other major groups, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do.
And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the extremely likely to vote category. This is not good for Obama and his Party.
Then there is the question of how independents will vote. PGWUBTP answered decisively.
Its findings revealed independent voters favor Romney by 16 points 51/35 which is an improvement of 4 points in just one week. This is a number that has held steady for at least a month.
The 14 point of undecided voters suggests that when the votes are finally counted Romney will get over 60% of this blocs votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
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