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October Surprise: Consumer Confidence Gets Back to Sept 2007 Level (Bush) - Did The Fed Contribute?
Confounded Interest ^ | 10/12/2012 | Snakeeyes Econ

Posted on 10/12/2012 8:22:33 AM PDT by whitedog57

As a long-time Ohio State Buckeye football fan, I have never been a fan of University of Michigan. And the recent University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index seems to be measuring optimism about Michigan Wolverine football than the economy. Seriously, as real GDP growth hovers barely above 1% and the crash in durable goods orders, this is a surprise.

According to University of Michigan, consumer confidence has risen to Bush-era levels of September 2007.

Just to put it into context, I put a yellow line through the 100 level. We still have a long way to go to get to 100 from 83.1.

Perhaps consumers are reacting to The Feds driving mortgage rates down to historic low levels. Are consumers confident about what The Fed is doing?

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: confidence; consumer; fed; obama
Good point by this economist. Most economic data stinks and mortgage rates (thanks to The Fed and Europe) are at all time lows. Maybe The Fed is responsible for the rise in consumer confidence.
1 posted on 10/12/2012 8:22:40 AM PDT by whitedog57
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To: whitedog57

Does the QE spending give us false economic estimates?

2 posted on 10/12/2012 8:25:35 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: whitedog57

Seriously, as real GDP growth hovers barely above 1% and the crash in durable goods orders, this is a surprise.
A lot of suspicious economic numbers coming out just one month before the election. Isn’t it curious how they all magically work to the benefit of the Dems?

3 posted on 10/12/2012 8:26:32 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: Starboard
The Average Voter doesn't even know what it is and every voter believes his or her eyes instead of some survey
4 posted on 10/12/2012 8:35:58 AM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: mountainlion

One silver lining to the utter disaster that has been our monetary and fiscal policy in recent decades, is a renewed interest in Austrian economics — and particularly the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle. A good summary is found here:

Yes, cheap credit policies by the central bank send out false signals to market participants, and create the boom-bust cycles we’re all too familiar with now — dot-com bubble in the 1990s, the real estate bubble in the 2000s, and currently the stock market has been inflated with newly created money.

5 posted on 10/12/2012 8:38:06 AM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: whitedog57

I don’t believe this but I wish it were true. Our e-commerce business is growing despite the economy but we feel as if there is a boulder about to drop on our heads at any moment. Means a lot of sleepless nights.

6 posted on 10/12/2012 8:39:54 AM PDT by albionin
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To: albionin

My 26-year-old production hand-manufactured business has been up starting last November. This will be my best year since 2008, but still below 2007.

My husband’s medical massage practice is about the same as last year, but he is seeing an increase in new clients and this is with a lot of competition in both areas where he has clinic hours.

That said, we have the same impending doom sense that you describe. I think it depends on what your target demographic might be. Medical and academic professionals and retirees all seem to be doing ok, along with accountants.

7 posted on 10/12/2012 9:32:33 AM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: whitedog57

As Romeny’s chances increase, so does economic optimism.

8 posted on 10/12/2012 9:40:11 AM PDT by conservative sympathizer
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To: whitedog57

Go Bucks! And don’t be surprised to find some extraordinarily good economic news and numbers mysteriously cropping up over the next few weeks. After all, unemployment suddenly dropped below 8%, even though the facts don’t support the numbers!

9 posted on 10/12/2012 10:02:39 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: conservative sympathizer
“As Romney’s chances increase, so does economic optimism.”

Agree... Anticipation of a change in the attitude of the government toward business and investment is already having a psychological effect.

Romney needs to jump on this and take the credit... don't let Obama try to count coup a la Bin Laden

10 posted on 10/12/2012 10:18:38 AM PDT by RedEyeJack
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To: reformedliberal

Our products $15 to $50 so our target audience is broad. Our business has grown well over 100% since we started it last Jan. But with gas prices and food prices rising We feel like we have a knife at our throats at all times. So I really do hope these numbers are correct. I can’t imagine how much better our sales would be if things were like they were in 2005 again.

11 posted on 10/12/2012 12:28:24 PM PDT by albionin
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To: whitedog57

If there is any improvement in this measurement it is because of people’s optimism as they look past Obama to a Romney administration.

12 posted on 10/12/2012 12:44:34 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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