Skip to comments.Electoral Math (Latest Update: 237 Obama 235 Romney, 66 Toss-Ups_
Posted on 10/24/2012 3:37:42 PM PDT by parksstp
95% Certainty now that barring an unforseen even, the following will occur within the Electoral College based on how the campaigns are spending their time and money.
Obama has 188 Electoral Votes locked up which are virtually uncontested by the Romney campaign.
HI(4) (WA) 12 CA (55) MN(10) IL(20) ME(3*) VT(3) RI(4) MA(11) CT(7) NY(29) NJ(14) DE(3) MD(10) DC(3) = 188 EV's
Based on the strategy of the Romney campaign and following the Money, Obama is likely to carry an additional 49 Electoral Votes from OR(7) NM(5) MI(16), PA(20), and ME 2ndCD(1) = 49 EV's. Because of the shrinking Electoral map, the Romney campaign has made minimal efforts here and have opted for other battlegrounds. And as the map shows, their current strategy doesn't need it.
So Obama has 237 Electoral Votes pretty much sealed up. ---------------------------------------
Romney has 170 Electoral Votes locked up, which are virtually uncontested by the Obama Campaign. They are AK (3) ID(4) UT(6) MT(3) WY(3) ND(3) SD(3) NE(5) KS(6) OK(7) TX (38) AR(6) LA(8) MS(6) AL(9) GA(16) SC(9) TN(11) KY(8) IN (11) and WV (5) = 170 EV's
Based on the current strategy of the Obama Campaign and following the money, Romney is likely to carry and additional 65 Electoral votes, including AZ(11), MO(10), NC(15), and most surprisingly FL(29) = 65 EV's. The fact the Obama camp has spent minimal time on FL when the GOP virtually needs it for any practical winning combination, and Romney/Ryan spreading the campaign resources beyond FL considerably, leads to a probably Romney victory here. Ditto also for NC.
So that leaves 66 Electoral Votes up for grabs. They include OH(18) VA(13) WI(10) CO(9) NV(6) IA(6) and NH(4)
Obviously, if one candidate can win both OH and VA, it gets them very close to winning the election, but it is not definite. Each candidate will have to win a minimum of at least 3 states to win the Election.
Currently, the strategy for both campaigns revolve around OH. The Obama campagin has treated OH, not FL, as the firewall. The idea is if they can win OH, Obama will be poised to be elected. While it's true no GOP candidate has one the Election without carrying OH, the closeness of this Election is giving Romney a chance to offset it. For example, Romney currently holds slight leads in VA, NH, and CO, which would offset a loss in OH and turn the Election to NV, IA, and WI. This may be the best chance since 2000 for the GOP to make a play for WI, and I suspect Paul Ryan will be used there quite often in the next week, along with IA, and as well as campaigning in NV.
This is forcing the Obama camp to stretch their resources more than they wanted to. At the beginning of the Election cycle, they figured the GOP could win IN, NC, VA, FL, and OH back, but finding that one additional state would be an issue given the demographic shifts in the Midwest and Southwest. But Obama has started to fade with Hispanic voters outside NM and this is not boding well.
According to 270towin.com, under this scenario, Obama has 19 winning combinations, and Romney 18 (actually 22 when 4 tie scenarios are factored in.) The 269 Tie is significant in that while Romney would probably win in the House, Joe Biden would most likely remain the Vice President assuming Democrats keep Senate control.
The 4 tie Scenarios involve: 1. Romney wins OH, NV, IA, NH. Obama wins VA, WI, CO 2. Romney wins VA, CO, NV, IA. Obama wins OH, WI, NH 3. Romney wins OH, WI, NV. Obama wins VA, CO, IA, NH 4. Romney wins OH, WI, IA. Obama wins VA, CO, NV, NH
I do not see any of these likely as of right now. The second option appears the most likely tie scenario given that Romney will probably win CO and VA.
If I had to move the remaining toss-up states to Red or Blue, I'd give Romney VA and CO. I think the Democratic machine that kept Reid in the Senate in NV is still too difficult to overcome. By 1 suburb, or about 15,000 votes, I think Obama still has the slightest edge in IA 772,000 votes - 758,000.
That gets us to 257 Romney, 249 Obama. As of now, I just don't know where WI, OH, and NH are going to go. The victor in OH will win by less than 20,000 votes. In WI, it may also be less than a percent. Romney's made gains in NH, will have to watch if any of the campaigns sends anyone.
Pa looks better every day.
The press is about to learn how little it really knew about Ohio.
The enthusiasm gap plus the GOTV effort by the GOP is going to put that race outside the margin of fraud IMO.
The Supreme Court may get this, given our country is overrun with Marxists. A shame the contest rides on turning states red who are left as Lenin. Astounding that America has let so much go that we could lose our country in a nailbiter. Deeply disturbing. I am praying.
Two-thirds of the toss-ups will go to Romney for 279 and the win.
Although Colorado went heavily for obama in 2008, it went heavily for Bush in 2004. Then again, they elected HickenLoopy in 2010, and there is a large hispanic population. But for all that Romney has a comfortable lead in Colorado according to Rasmussen.
In Ohio, Romney clearly has a great deal of momentum, and I've noticed the term 'broken-glass republicans' cropping up, referring (obviously) to GOPers that will crawl over broken glass to vote out bamster. Also, I've heard the republican groundgame in Ohio has been excellent.
Here's hoping and praying!
Yeah, Obama’s definitely counting his chickens too early if he thinks PA is locked up.
Maine splits electoral college votes. Looks like 3 obama, 1 for romney from maine
They are going to shocked when Romney carries Michigan.
OH will go 'Rat but it won't matter. The LSM mantra that the GOP is toast without OH is pure baloney. The LSM is always wrong.
Hey there knarf!
I’m also from Pennsylvania and I agree! It will be very close, but I do believe our blue-er than blue state is actually in play! Lots of people are royally ticked off but too politically correct (ARGH!) to admit publicly that they are voting for Romney. But in private, they say they are voting for Romney.
We’re fighting the good fight here and engaging anyone who will listen that the Bamster has got to GO!
This election shouldn’t even be close
A normal citizenry would have Obama long gone in the polls
Carter—Clinton—Gore—Kerry —Obama a succession of complete idiot losers
How sad for a once great country
"...Freedom is only a generation away from extinction..."
On another thread, a FReeper made the point that the pundits have it backwards. The Ohio vote percentages very closely track the national vote percentages. So it's really more of a case of "no GOP candidate has won OH without also having won the national popular vote".
If Obama was white, Romney would be looking at 320 EV’s with no sweat.
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