Skip to comments.What’s Going On In Ohio? [Nationally Romney Leads By 18 Among Men But Only By 6-9 Points In Ohio?]
Posted on 10/27/2012 9:20:39 AM PDT by Steelfish
Whats Going On In Ohio? By Amy Walter
Oct 26, 2012
Or, why does Obama continue to hold a small lead in that state while national polls have the race a dead heat. The three most recent Ohio polls (CNN, Time, and CBS/Quinnipiac) show President Obama with a lead of 4-5 points. Meanwhile, the latest ABC/Washington Post national tracking poll has the race a dead heat, with Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 48 percent.
How is that possible?
Three things: Democrats, white voters, and men. 1) The Democratic advantage in the Ohio polls is anywhere from 3-9 points (it was 8 points in 2008). Our latest national survey showed Democrats with a 4 point advantage on party identification. And, Obama is getting almost every single one of those Democrats to vote for him (anywhere between 92 to 94 percent). In 2008, Obama carried 89 percent of the Democratic vote.
2) In Ohio Obama does 7 to 11 points better among white voters and 7 to 12 points better among white men specifically than he does nationally. The three media polls from Ohio showed Romney getting between 49 to 53 percent of the white vote, while the ABC/Washington Post poll showed Romney winning white voters nationally with 60 percent of the vote. The CNN and CBS/Quinnipiac polls show Romney between winning 54 59 percent of white men . The ABC/Washington Poll shows Romney carrying white men by a whopping 66 percent.
3) Romney does better among men nationally than he does in Ohio. The national tracking poll shows Romney leading among men by 18 points. In Ohio, however, Romneys lead among men is a more modest 6 to 9 points. And, among women, Obama has anywhere from a 12 to 19 point lead over Romney.
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The media can’t risk showing the last firewall going to Romney or its’ game over for Obama. They’ll do anything to keep the impression that Ohio is in play just to keep the libs interested in voting.
I wonder what this says about Ohio “men”.
Steelfish i was missin your negative vibes. U should check out the ohio absentee ballot spread sheet to warm ur heart. It might depress the kossack in you though.
Too many of them have bought into the phony Obambi propaganda about Romney wanting to liquidate the auto industry.
I still think we can win Ohio, but wow is it going to be close.
We live in a suburban neighborhood not far from Cleveland and close to the liberal nest of Kent State.
If yard signs and bumper stickers are any indicator, Nov. 6th will be a blood bath for Obama.
Some on the ground data from our colleague LS, who is very much in tune with OH GOTV effort
He mailed me the following:
They had 27 Greyhounds to bus people over to election HQ to vote after President Obama came here. After the third bus arrived, empty, they quit. They had three floors set aside to register people. As you see . . . . LS
The campaign should do a very focused 90 minute ad focused on Ohio males...run it limited time on tv, then push it through online ads all week. Target the real results of the auto bailout, and what should have happened, and why the bailout only hurt union workers while enriching the union bosses.
If you want t live in a bubble and a virtual world of your own making and unable to deal with the assessments of others in a constructive way you just may have stumbled onto the wrong place.
The boys in Parma turned into girls.
if the situation was reversed, and polls in Ohio were in favor of a GOP candidate while the rest of the nation went the other way. this would be a non-issue in the criminal liberal media who would consider the Ohio situation an outlier...
I heard the best analysis of the election yet from Larry Kudlow this morning on his radio show...he had some guy on talking about what a great game obama has, more offices in Iowa, NH, etc compared to Romney and how the election is going to be a nail biter...
Kudlow said, “look- even with that, when you break it down by state, obama is not polling over 50% in any of the battelground states....look at Pa, a one point lead but he’s polling at 46% or 47%...if he’s polling below 50% today he won’t poll above it on election day...people know obama”...
Kudlow then went on to rip the guy apart about the ground game, talking about the GOP’s ground game in Wisconsin, winning the governorship then re-winning it in the recall as well as winning the courts despite the zillions of $$$ spent by unions...by the end of the conversation his guest was backpedaling...
This is true. If the RNC and RR campaigns could shift the male vote by even a few percentage points this could be pivotal and it is very doable. They have to expose the false narrative that is bombarding OH voters especially union voters.
So the CNN, Time and CBS polls show Barry in the lead. Personally, I’m just shocked as hell!
Democrats are so delusional that they think Ohio is in the bag. Wonder how many welfare dems won’t even bother voting because they assume Obama is going to be elected again. Rassmussen has Romney up by a whopping 6 points in the swing states which means that Romney is up close to 10 points. Let the dems think they have it in the bag. We are crushing them.
That's better than a chocolate cake doughnut and a cup of coffee.
Well the pubbies better get on the stick! Drudge reports van loads of Somalians arriving to early voting. Of course there are no pubbie interpreters present but, by golly, the RAT interpreters are present. This is what our democracy has come to. If we can stop the RATS and their fraudulent voting we win, if we can’t........
Here is the problem. Ohio is a 37 GOP-36 Dem state. Even the most conservative pro Obama polls are oversampling Dems by at least +2 to give Obama an edge. Remove the most blantantly biased Democrat polls and you have a tie game in Ohio just like Rasmussen is projecting.
Heard it, and recorded it on my I-phone with Tunein.