Michael Barone — one of the best elections analysts out there by far — was on Fox News last night. He attributed the white male gap to a specific group of college-educated white males that may have been influenced by the Obama camp’s inundation of the airwaves around the time of the conventions.
He suggested that it may be easier for Romney to win a state like Wisconsin where that didn’t happen.
FWIW - Barone did pick Romney for the win.
Barone, by far the best in this business, make an excellent point to explain what is clearly a huge gap in the “men” vote in OH from what is occurring nationally. I think Romney needs to hit back hard with ads that expose the false narrative that he wanted GM to go bankrupt and belly up. Unless the “men” vote gap is narrowed all indications are that this may prove to be a firewall that catapults Obama into a second term.
I'm 'in the neighborhood' and got those same ads in the same timeframe. They sucked. Pedantic, plebian and utterly unconvincing.
Barone should have said, "I don't know, and therefore I question the polling" instead of slicing his finger on Occam's razor.
Furthermore, the bulk of Ohio's southern border is West Virginia, a state that gave 41% of their 2012 Democrat primary vote to a registered felon. ABO doesn't stop at the Ohio River.