Skip to comments.Rasmussen’s numbers and PPP’s Romney +16 with Independents puts Mitt up 10.742%
Posted on 10/29/2012 8:24:58 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Yesterdays Rasmussen report plus yesterdays Public Policy Polling (PPP) report provides us with a possible final margin of victory for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama.
Rasmussens survey shows a 50/47 lead for Romney and PPP says Romney leads among Independents by 58/42.
Rasmussens Party registration breakdown shows there are 36.8% Republicans 34.2% Democrats and 29% Independents among each 100 registered voters.
Rasmussens latest report reveals 89% of Democrats will vote for Obama and 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney.
Using these baseline numbers Romney gets 33.12 points from Republicans and additional 16.82 from Independents for a total of 49.94%. CNNs 2008 exit polls showed about 10% of each Partys registered voters voted for the opposing candidate.
This means an additional 3.24 for Romney for a total of 53.36%. Since there are several minor Parties adding up to about 1% that will likely take about an equal amount (.5%) from each side reduces Romney to 52.86%.
Rasmussen says Obama will get 89% of Democrat votes.
This gives him 30.438 and from PPPs Independent numbers he will get another 12.18 for a total of 42.618, but subtracting .5% of the 1% minor Party vote gives Obama 42.118%. This accounts for all but 4.522% the undecided.
Splitting this vote (very generous) gives Obama 44.379%. Doing the same for Romney gives him 55.127% for lead of 10.742%.
N.B. using generally accepted undecided rule that 80% go to the challenger gives Romney a possible 56.4776% to Obamas 43.5226%.
In either scenario it is not realistic to think that such a large popular vote would not result in a large Electoral College blowout for Romney.
Nevertheless, these assumptions are the most conservative interpretation of the data and do not take into account the large enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Super Interesting News from Rasmussen!
He just released an poll to his members that is a 7 day poll.
D+4 Poll D/R/I = 40/36/24
Taken from Oct 22-28
This is his daily 7 day sample at 500 LV daily
So 3500 people
Congress Republican/Congress Democrat: 46/43
Gov Romney/President Obama: 50/47 (expanded sample)
The Governor leads independents by 13
President total approval: 48
Presidential Approval Index: -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/57
If you bury them in a landslide, they can’t cheat. Enough.
This doesn’t factor the Libertarians who compose 2% of the voters. The many that I know are crossing over to the pubbies.
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