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Intrade presidential election markets -- Obama ahead even in the popular vote?
vanity | October 30, 2012 | me

Posted on 10/30/2012 2:36:05 PM PDT by reaganaut1

It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Politics
KEYWORDS: intrade
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1 posted on 10/30/2012 2:36:12 PM PDT by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1

Your last line answers your own question.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 2:38:29 PM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: reaganaut1

Americans are not legally allowed to participate in Intrade. So the opinions expressed there are from socialist Euro-trash, most of whom know nothing about American politics and simply assume that Obama is the guy Americans will vote for because Obama is a socialist and everyone loves socialism, right?


3 posted on 10/30/2012 2:39:18 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: reaganaut1

If all you had for news was the BBC, I am sure Obama looks like a real safe bet.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 2:40:32 PM PDT by j_k_l
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To: reaganaut1
Sadly, Romney stands no chance because true conservatives have beliefs that prohibit them from voting for him. I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

Many true conservatives will do the same despite "nose despite your face arguments" because they simply can't endorse and support a liberal, even in the face of a bigger liberal like Hussein. That 1-3% nationally will be enough to cost him the election.

I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.
5 posted on 10/30/2012 2:40:45 PM PDT by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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To: TexasGunLover

You sound like the person who refused to eat with utensils, but was too dainty to eat with his hands.

He starved to death.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 2:42:57 PM PDT by OpusatFR
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To: TexasGunLover

Your freaking sad alright. Read your own tag line bozo “Either you’re with us or you’re with the terrorists.”— President George W. Bush”


7 posted on 10/30/2012 2:43:11 PM PDT by Justice
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To: TexasGunLover

“I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.”

Uh, OK.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 2:43:49 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: TexasGunLover

So you endorse Obama instead? You deserve the assrape you will get from Obama in his second term.


9 posted on 10/30/2012 2:45:09 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: TexasGunLover

Did you impress yourself?


10 posted on 10/30/2012 2:46:17 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: TexasGunLover
I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

Osama Obama climaxes in his pants when he reads stuff like this.

11 posted on 10/30/2012 2:46:28 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: reaganaut1
Ignore InTrade.

I for one don't actually think it's being manipulated to discourage right-wing voters, but there is are a couple relevant effects going on:

Many of the people in the US Presidential markets on InTrade are foreigners, especially Europeans. They want Obama to win, and people skew toward who they want to win.

But more importantly, many of those foreigners see nothing but the Reuters/Ipsos polls, which have been about the furthest Left outliers of this election cycle: while in the US it is acknowledged and seen in the polls that Romney is ahead, to the best of my knowledge, Reuters/Ipsos has never shown anything other than an Obama lead.

In short, a bunch of people on InTrade (foreigners) have never seen a poll with anything other than Obama in the lead, so of course they favor Obama.
12 posted on 10/30/2012 2:48:47 PM PDT by verum ago (Some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
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To: oblomov
So you endorse Obama instead? You deserve the assrape you will get from Obama in his second term.

In our form of election system, you can not endorse a candidate by default. It's also not possible to vote AGAINST a candidate, you can only endorse a candidate by voting for them.
13 posted on 10/30/2012 2:50:44 PM PDT by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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To: TexasGunLover
>>>Sadly, Romney stands no chance...

Bookmarked. Why? You'll find out...

14 posted on 10/30/2012 2:50:56 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: TexasGunLover

[ I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him. ]

I dont believe you, in the privacy of the voting booth you will select Romney..
What are you STUPID?...

I don’t see stupid in any of your posts..
I also despise Romney but will vote for his ass..
Because he is NOT OBAMA, purely..

True... that he may be Obamas backers Plan “B”.. but I have my own plans..
They include a VETO proof Congress.. to ride heard on the MAss liberal..
And make it political suicide for him to make “certain” decisions..

With Myth THAT would easier than with Zero..
NOT voting for MYTH makes AN Obama VOTE double powerful..
Basically WORTH TWO VOTES... wise up grasshopper..


15 posted on 10/30/2012 2:51:25 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: nhwingut
Did you impress yourself?

Impress, no, but I do have a clear conscience.
16 posted on 10/30/2012 2:51:45 PM PDT by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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To: hosepipe

“Because he is NOT OBAMA, purely..”

Thank you.

The stupidity in America is staggering.

The Democrats are busing in Somalis, rigging voter-fraud and here we have someone “hoping” Romney wins but will not vote for him. All the while we’re trying to get rid of America-hating Obama.

*shakes head*


17 posted on 10/30/2012 2:55:27 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: reaganaut1
What makes Intrade infallible?
18 posted on 10/30/2012 2:55:27 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: reaganaut1

Only persons outside the USA can bet legally (enforceably) on the outcome of a US election. Obama is still much beloved by outsiders, and only those outsiders can enter this market legally (or at least that is my superficial understanding of the law; if I’m wrong, someone please correct me).

I remember Churchill was quite popular in the USA, where we were shocked to see him (his Tories) be turned out of power promptly after WW2 ended. *shrug*


19 posted on 10/30/2012 2:55:53 PM PDT by pogo101
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To: hosepipe
I dont believe you, in the privacy of the voting booth you will select Romney.

You're correct, I did't select him when I voted last week. It made me sick, but like the other 1-3% that won't it will have an impact, sadly.
20 posted on 10/30/2012 2:56:04 PM PDT by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade investors are primarily foreigners, if I’m not mistaken. Thus, these statistics represent naive European opinions. Many Intrade investors are apparently heading for a rude awakening come next Tuesday. They must be listening to the LSM propaganda polls...


21 posted on 10/30/2012 2:56:28 PM PDT by sargon
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To: TexasGunLover

In many elections there are situations where all of the available candidates take morally unacceptable positions on one or more of the non-negotiable issues.

In such situations, a citizen is called upon to make tough choices. In those cases, citizens must vote in the way that will most limit the harm that would be done by the available candidates.

Imagine a situation wherein one candidate has a record of fighting for unrestricted access to abortion, and the other candidate would only consider allowing abortion in the cases of rape or incest.

This is simply an example of a situation where all of the available candidates take a morally unacceptable position, but one will most limit the harm that would be done.

So!...You have a RESPONSIBILITY TO VOTE FOR THE ONE WHO WOULD DO THE LEAST HARM, lest the other clown DOES MORE HARM!


22 posted on 10/30/2012 3:01:12 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: reaganaut1

Most American voters don’t even know Intrade exists.


23 posted on 10/30/2012 3:04:58 PM PDT by rewrite (It ain't what You are, it's what You're about that makes a difference in the world.)
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To: TexasGunLover
Forget the two people who are are chosen choices. I will be voting for Romney because:

1. I don't want anymore Supreme Court appointments that are filled with communists who will destroy our constitution. It is estimated that 2 vacancies will occur. Kiss your guns and the rest of your rights good-by if Obama appoints the next 2.

2. I want a loyal American, not someone who hates America and is loyal to God only knows who or what, to be able to defend our country militarily, and assure our very survival.

Not really a hard choice. IMHO, if someone who could vote, doesn't vote for Romney, it is same as a vote for Obama. In other words, you are voting communist.

24 posted on 10/30/2012 3:04:58 PM PDT by A. Patriot (Re-electing Obama is like the Titanic backing up to hit the iceberg again.)
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To: reaganaut1

Most American voters don’t even know Intrade exists.


25 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:01 PM PDT by rewrite (It ain't what You are, it's what You're about that makes a difference in the world.)
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To: TexasGunLover

You need to apply game theory here, and take into account the actions of all other players, not just you.

If you actually live in TX, then you are correct. If you live in a swing state, then not voting for Romney would be a vote by default for Obama.


26 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:08 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: reaganaut1
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

27 posted on 10/30/2012 3:05:41 PM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: TexasGunLover
I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

Gee, are they having a sale on Kool Aid where you live? Or are you someone who secretly hopes to see our Great Republic DESTROYED, which (unless you have not noticed???) is what Dear Leader has been trying to do for the past 4 years and would continue in his efforts if reelected?

And I thought most Texans (at least those who PRETEND to be Conservatives) were Patriots who loved their country and would do anything to protect and defend it?

Apparently, there are exceptions as shown by your delusional rant!

28 posted on 10/30/2012 3:09:45 PM PDT by neveralib
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To: TexasGunLover
In our form of election system, you can not endorse a candidate by default. It's also not possible to vote AGAINST a candidate, you can only endorse a candidate by voting for them.

Is there a voting system ANYWHERE on the planet that allows a vote against someone that doesn't, at the same time, require you to vote for someone else?

29 posted on 10/30/2012 3:12:56 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade’s predictive accuracy approaches 1.0 the closer an election gets. It generally reaches 1.0 when the election is actually called (or the victor becomes apparent)

It also functions as ... a market. Go figure. That means the possibility of short selling.


30 posted on 10/30/2012 3:16:40 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: TexasGunLover
Impress, no, but I do have a clear conscience.

Yep. As you help your family into the cattle cars. Good shooting there Tex.
31 posted on 10/30/2012 3:19:30 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: TexasGunLover
I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

No way you are a native Texan.

Disgusting that anyone would do anything but vote to get rid of that cancer Obama. Embarrasing post.

32 posted on 10/30/2012 3:24:09 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks!)
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To: reaganaut1

why would you use intrade to tell you anything?


33 posted on 10/30/2012 3:28:56 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: PA Engineer; TexasGunLover

S/he already voted last week, so Praise God, there’s a majority of good Texans to fully assure the great state of Texas will go to Romney/Ryan, despite such willful contempt for voting against the evil Marxist by voting for Romney/Ryan.


34 posted on 10/30/2012 3:29:14 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TexasGunLover

and will you do proper grovelling on Nov 7 when you are proven wrong?


35 posted on 10/30/2012 3:31:11 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: reaganaut1

Intrade will dramatically change right before the election, so yes, it’s manipulated.

Pay it NO attention.


36 posted on 10/30/2012 3:31:20 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: TexasGunLover

if O wins you won’t


37 posted on 10/30/2012 3:33:37 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: reaganaut1

A lot of people holding Obama. It works like the stock market, gotta have a buyer to sell.


38 posted on 10/30/2012 3:34:26 PM PDT by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: TexasGunLover; mickie
".....but I do have a clear conscience."

You are SO morally superior to the rest of us saddled with more cloudy consciences.

I am properly humbled.

Leni

39 posted on 10/30/2012 3:38:12 PM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: TexasGunLover

No you don’t. If you did, you wouldn’t be here posting looking for validation.


40 posted on 10/30/2012 3:43:00 PM PDT by Double Tap
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To: j_k_l

If all you had for news was the BBC, I am sure Obama looks like a real safe bet.
***************************************************
and CNN International ...


41 posted on 10/30/2012 3:46:30 PM PDT by Neidermeyer
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To: TexasGunLover

Your silly lack of intelligent voting has zero effect. Do you understand how the Electoral system works? Who will win Texas?

You aren’t special

You aren’t very smart

Now go away.


42 posted on 10/30/2012 3:47:33 PM PDT by Double Tap
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To: TexasGunLover
I'm glad you decided to vote your conscious, rather than the alternative, and I'm sure those who'd jump down your throat about it are glad that you're not voting in a swing state.

But any anger directed at you NEEDS to be directed at the party that delivered us a candidate that we can barely stomach, not at the voters who are by default asked to choose between two liberal candidates.

I'm not in a swing state either; one really has to wonder what would have happened had the Republicans actually nominated a conservative, who was willing to take the fight to the liberals time and time again, rather than roll out the red carpet for their plans and ideals.

In this election, a hardline conservative could have possibly made the first landslide win since Ronald Reagan's re-election.

43 posted on 10/30/2012 3:47:51 PM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: reaganaut1

This is not over until that fat lady sings. So, we need to have the fatter lady and have her sing last. So, republicans have to fight this fight to the last vote.


44 posted on 10/30/2012 3:50:15 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (The Scriptures clearly tell us we are in the last days, the end times. Christ is the only answer!)
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To: TexasGunLover
Sadly, Romney stands no chance because true conservatives have beliefs that prohibit them from voting for him. I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

Oh BS. Waaaaaaah, your pick(s) for President didn't make it through the primary so you won't vote for the Republican nominee. Geeze, grow up will ya. If everyone pulled this temper tantrum crap the left would never lose.

Look pal, you are not doing anyone any good. If you didn't vote for Romney, you effectively helped Obama win a second term. Yes, you did precisely that. And your statement that Romney stands no chance is ridiculous. Mitt may very well lose, but he does have a chance - no thanks to you.

I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

General elections are not about "endorsing" anyone. They are a choice between 2 options - and most of the time in a 2 party system neither of them will be ideal. Your chance to "endorse" a candidate is in one of the 2 party primaries. When it comes to general elections, we are all stuck with what the majority on the right wanted. Once in a lifetime we will get a Reagan, most of the time we end up with someone far less appealing.

45 posted on 10/30/2012 3:53:38 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: TexasGunLover

Thought as much.. I must do the same dammit..
So many traitors and rinos so little time..


46 posted on 10/30/2012 3:58:18 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: TexasGunLover

Let’s put it this way. If Obama wins, illegals will be able to vote and even Texas will never go GOP.


47 posted on 10/30/2012 4:16:14 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: TexasGunLover

You, sir, are in fine standing with me as you’re also expressing the same opinion of Jim Robinson with regards to Mr. Romney.


48 posted on 10/30/2012 4:49:12 PM PDT by MeganC (Our forefathers would be shooting by now.)
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To: onyx
S/he already voted last week, so Praise God, there’s a majority of good Texans to fully assure the great state of Texas will go to Romney/Ryan, despite such willful contempt for voting against the evil Marxist by voting for Romney/Ryan.

Some times you just have to shake your head, face palm and wonder if liberals really are smarter than conservatives.

Liberals understand incrementalism. Maybe they will get just a little of their way each election. All they have to do is wait. If they can't get their perfect progressive candidate, they still head out and vote in solidarity for the less than ideal. They still head out and vote. The reason they vote is because they are heading in the right direction for their cause.

What do we have on the conservative side? People with absolute "conscience" who will feel really good about themselves if they don't vote for the non-ideal. Heck, every election they continue to feel good by taking their toys and running home if they don't get their way. In the end they always feel good about themselves as the horrors of progressivism march on.

Sadly, like the true believing progressive, we also have the same type on our side. These conservatives are no different than the progressive who will bring the world down with utopianism. The conservative utopianism is no less blind. Progressive utopia will kill us with the end, while conservative is killing us with the means.

When will these people grow up and realize that the perfect is the enemy of the good. We didn't get into this mess overnight. A "perfect" conservative politician is not going to come out of the wind and reverse it overnight either. To believe otherwise is just another destructive form of unicorn worship.

I never get an answer from these types when I ask about down ticket. A broad brush that is still proving true.
49 posted on 10/30/2012 4:50:39 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: TexasGunLover
but could never endorse him by voting for him.

And here I was always told that nothing but steers and queers come from Texas......guess they have morons too.

No offense to the rest of you Texans, you're the ones who have to live with this idiot........

50 posted on 10/30/2012 4:56:48 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (Jab her with a harpoon.....)
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