Intrade presidential election markets -- Obama ahead even in the popular vote?

vanity | October 30, 2012 | me

[reaganaut1]

It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?

[DarthVader]

Your last line answers your own question.

[Thane_Banquo]

Americans are not legally allowed to participate in Intrade. So the opinions expressed there are from socialist Euro-trash, most of whom know nothing about American politics and simply assume that Obama is the guy Americans will vote for because Obama is a socialist and everyone loves socialism, right?

[j_k_l]

If all you had for news was the BBC, I am sure Obama looks like a real safe bet.

[TexasGunLover]

Sadly, Romney stands no chance because true conservatives have beliefs that prohibit them from voting for him. I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

Many true conservatives will do the same despite "nose despite your face arguments" because they simply can't endorse and support a liberal, even in the face of a bigger liberal like Hussein. That 1-3% nationally will be enough to cost him the election.

I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

[OpusatFR]

You sound like the person who refused to eat with utensils, but was too dainty to eat with his hands.

He starved to death.

[Justice]

Your freaking sad alright. Read your own tag line bozo “Either you’re with us or you’re with the terrorists.”— President George W. Bush”

[oblomov]

So you endorse Obama instead? You deserve the assrape you will get from Obama in his second term.

[nhwingut]

Did you impress yourself?

[Gay State Conservative]

I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

Osama Obama climaxes in his pants when he reads stuff like this.

[verum ago]

Ignore InTrade.

I for one don't actually think it's being manipulated to discourage right-wing voters, but there is are a couple relevant effects going on:

Many of the people in the US Presidential markets on InTrade are foreigners, especially Europeans. They want Obama to win, and people skew toward who they want to win.

But more importantly, many of those foreigners see nothing but the Reuters/Ipsos polls, which have been about the furthest Left outliers of this election cycle: while in the US it is acknowledged and seen in the polls that Romney is ahead, to the best of my knowledge, Reuters/Ipsos has never shown anything other than an Obama lead.

In short, a bunch of people on InTrade (foreigners) have never seen a poll with anything other than Obama in the lead, so of course they favor Obama.

[TexasGunLover]

So you endorse Obama instead? You deserve the assrape you will get from Obama in his second term.

In our form of election system, you can not endorse a candidate by default. It's also not possible to vote AGAINST a candidate, you can only endorse a candidate by voting for them.

[NELSON111]

>>>Sadly, Romney stands no chance...

Bookmarked. Why? You'll find out...

[hosepipe]

[ I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him. ]

I dont believe you, in the privacy of the voting booth you will select Romney..
What are you STUPID?...

I don’t see stupid in any of your posts..
I also despise Romney but will vote for his ass..
Because he is NOT OBAMA, purely..

True... that he may be Obamas backers Plan “B”.. but I have my own plans..
They include a VETO proof Congress.. to ride heard on the MAss liberal..
And make it political suicide for him to make “certain” decisions..

With Myth THAT would easier than with Zero..
NOT voting for MYTH makes AN Obama VOTE double powerful..
Basically WORTH TWO VOTES... wise up grasshopper..

[TexasGunLover]

Did you impress yourself?

Impress, no, but I do have a clear conscience.

[G Larry]

What makes Intrade infallible?

[pogo101]

Only persons outside the USA can bet legally (enforceably) on the outcome of a US election. Obama is still much beloved by outsiders, and only those outsiders can enter this market legally (or at least that is my superficial understanding of the law; if I’m wrong, someone please correct me).

I remember Churchill was quite popular in the USA, where we were shocked to see him (his Tories) be turned out of power promptly after WW2 ended. *shrug*

[TexasGunLover]

I dont believe you, in the privacy of the voting booth you will select Romney.

You're correct, I did't select him when I voted last week. It made me sick, but like the other 1-3% that won't it will have an impact, sadly.