Intrade presidential election markets -- Obama ahead even in the popular vote?

vanity | October 30, 2012 | me

[reaganaut1]

It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?

[Neidermeyer]

If all you had for news was the BBC, I am sure Obama looks like a real safe bet.
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and CNN International ...

[Double Tap]

Your silly lack of intelligent voting has zero effect. Do you understand how the Electoral system works? Who will win Texas?

You aren’t special

You aren’t very smart

Now go away.

[kingu]

I'm glad you decided to vote your conscious, rather than the alternative, and I'm sure those who'd jump down your throat about it are glad that you're not voting in a swing state.

But any anger directed at you NEEDS to be directed at the party that delivered us a candidate that we can barely stomach, not at the voters who are by default asked to choose between two liberal candidates.

I'm not in a swing state either; one really has to wonder what would have happened had the Republicans actually nominated a conservative, who was willing to take the fight to the liberals time and time again, rather than roll out the red carpet for their plans and ideals.

In this election, a hardline conservative could have possibly made the first landslide win since Ronald Reagan's re-election.

[RetiredArmy]

This is not over until that fat lady sings. So, we need to have the fatter lady and have her sing last. So, republicans have to fight this fight to the last vote.

[Longbow1969]

Sadly, Romney stands no chance because true conservatives have beliefs that prohibit them from voting for him. I'm disgusted I had to review my straight R ballot and deselect the candidate for President just because he was the last man standing.

Oh BS. Waaaaaaah, your pick(s) for President didn't make it through the primary so you won't vote for the Republican nominee. Geeze, grow up will ya. If everyone pulled this temper tantrum crap the left would never lose.

Look pal, you are not doing anyone any good. If you didn't vote for Romney, you effectively helped Obama win a second term. Yes, you did precisely that. And your statement that Romney stands no chance is ridiculous. Mitt may very well lose, but he does have a chance - no thanks to you.

I truly hope he wins instead of Hussein, but could never endorse him by voting for him.

General elections are not about "endorsing" anyone. They are a choice between 2 options - and most of the time in a 2 party system neither of them will be ideal. Your chance to "endorse" a candidate is in one of the 2 party primaries. When it comes to general elections, we are all stuck with what the majority on the right wanted. Once in a lifetime we will get a Reagan, most of the time we end up with someone far less appealing.

[hosepipe]

Thought as much.. I must do the same dammit..
So many traitors and rinos so little time..

[ari-freedom]

Let’s put it this way. If Obama wins, illegals will be able to vote and even Texas will never go GOP.

[MeganC]

You, sir, are in fine standing with me as you’re also expressing the same opinion of Jim Robinson with regards to Mr. Romney.

[PA Engineer]

S/he already voted last week, so Praise God, there’s a majority of good Texans to fully assure the great state of Texas will go to Romney/Ryan, despite such willful contempt for voting against the evil Marxist by voting for Romney/Ryan.

Some times you just have to shake your head, face palm and wonder if liberals really are smarter than conservatives.

Liberals understand incrementalism. Maybe they will get just a little of their way each election. All they have to do is wait. If they can't get their perfect progressive candidate, they still head out and vote in solidarity for the less than ideal. They still head out and vote. The reason they vote is because they are heading in the right direction for their cause.

What do we have on the conservative side? People with absolute "conscience" who will feel really good about themselves if they don't vote for the non-ideal. Heck, every election they continue to feel good by taking their toys and running home if they don't get their way. In the end they always feel good about themselves as the horrors of progressivism march on.

Sadly, like the true believing progressive, we also have the same type on our side. These conservatives are no different than the progressive who will bring the world down with utopianism. The conservative utopianism is no less blind. Progressive utopia will kill us with the end, while conservative is killing us with the means.

When will these people grow up and realize that the perfect is the enemy of the good. We didn't get into this mess overnight. A "perfect" conservative politician is not going to come out of the wind and reverse it overnight either. To believe otherwise is just another destructive form of unicorn worship.

I never get an answer from these types when I ask about down ticket. A broad brush that is still proving true.

[Hot Tabasco]

but could never endorse him by voting for him.

And here I was always told that nothing but steers and queers come from Texas......guess they have morons too.

No offense to the rest of you Texans, you're the ones who have to live with this idiot........

[dforest]

You will die via Obamacare. I won’t give a crap if you do. Bye sucker!

[onyx]

I couldn’t and wouldn’t change a word you wrote. We can only be grateful their side has some kooks like Ralph Nader and the Communist Party to wean off some votes from the demonic-rat party.

The Libertarians hurt our side more than their side, and it’s growing in popularity. George Allen might lose in VA again due to a Libertarian candidate.

In presidential elections, the Libertarian votes are “feel good” throw away votes.

[onyx]

You, sir, are in fine standing with me as you’re also expressing the same opinion of Jim Robinson with regards to Mr. Romney.

Wrong.

And I guess hell has frozen over because as much as I dislike Romney's prior RINO positions, I decided to make my anti-Obama vote count in the only way it might actually do some good. So I marked my absentee ballot for Romney-Ryan and voted straight Republican down ticket and no on every ballot issue that would raise taxes, spend money or aid big government or help greedy, thieving socialist workers unions.

[onyx]

You, sir, are in fine standing with me as you’re also expressing the same opinion of Jim Robinson with regards to Mr. Romney.

Wrong.

And I guess hell has frozen over because as much as I dislike Romney's prior RINO positions, I decided to make my anti-Obama vote count in the only way it might actually do some good. So I marked my absentee ballot for Romney-Ryan and voted straight Republican down ticket and no on every ballot issue that would raise taxes, spend money or aid big government or help greedy, thieving socialist workers unions.

[Hot Tabasco]

directed at the party that delivered us a candidate

Just what exactly is "The Party"?...

The "Party" didn't deliver anyone a candidate. Unless I'm mistaken, there were a host of individuals running in the GOP primary and Romney just happened to receive the majority of the votes cast by the voters.........

So what was your "Party" doing, sending out secret letters telling the people to vote for Romney? Mine must have gotten lost in the mail.........

[TexasGunLover]

Obviously I do, proving you do not.

[morphing libertarian]

I think CAL will go 56% OB. That will put him over the top in popular vote Add oregon and Wash.