Skip to comments.Tell Me Again How 2012 Won’t Be Another “Shellacking”?
Posted on 10/30/2012 2:44:03 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[October 2 /12]
The story lately has been about over-sampling of Democrats in polls, leading to an orthodox media conclusion that President Obama has opened a large lead over challenger, Mitt Romney. I have a question, however.
In 2010 the Republicans decimated the Democrats in what President Obama termed a shellacking. That election was fought based on voter approval of Obamas first two years of policies. Well, now it is 2012, and President Obamas approval rating is identical to that of late 2010: Obamas Approval Rating Mirrors 2010. So, tell me how this wont translate into another shellacking?
We are constantly reminded that the economy is the most important issue in the presidential election. President Obama insists that Americans are better off now than they were four years ago. But I am willing to bet if you were to look at Americans bank statements, they would vehemently disagree: Americans Incomes Have Fallen $3,040 During the Obama Recovery. So once again, please tell me how this wont translate into another shellacking?
President Obama insists that the economy is in an improving recovery. Shouldnt manufacturing then be picking up? Largest drop in factory orders since 2009 So, here we go again. Pretty please, with jam on it, explain to me how this wont translate into another shellacking?
We keep being told that independents decide elections. No doubt President Obama won the majority of independents support in 2008. This time around President Obama is in big trouble with independents: Media Ignore Independents Swing Toward Romney. I am pleading with you. Please, please tell me how this wont translate into another shellacking?
One more time, the polls repeatedly reveal that the state of the economy is the most important concern of voters in 2012. It takes no leap of genius to figure out that whoever voters feel most comfortable with in regard to the economy will also win the election: Polls Romney leads Obama 51% to 44% in trust to handling the economy. This is getting very tiring. Lets put an end to this by you telling me right now how this wont translate into another shellacking?
In 2008 Republicans were demoralized and Democrats were enthusiastic about voting the enthusiasm gap. It turned into a huge Democrat win. This year is a complete reversal: Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. OK. Enough of being the nice guy just spell it all out how this wont translate into another shellacking?
Heres more confirming Democrats lack of voter enthusiasm. Democratic voter registrations are down much more than Republican registrations. Im done please just lay it all out and explain to me how this wont translate into another shellacking?
Update 1: Well, President Obama mailed in his debate performance last night just as he has mailed in his stint as President. 67% of those who watched the debate said that Mitt Romney won the debate: No presidential candidate has topped 60% in that question since it was first asked in 1984″ Tell me, was that a presage of a coming shellacking?
Update 2: The number of Americans who watched last nights Obama meltdown was up a full 29% from the number who watched the first debate in the 2008 election: More people watch than in 2008 How is it that this will not translate into another shellacking?
Update 3: This just in from the IRS yes, the IRS! (You cant find a bigger authority on taxes than the IRS.) Obama tax hike threatens one million small businesses One more time how wont this translate into another shellacking?
Update 4: In the Gallup poll, as of October 2, Mitt Romney is polling higher than every challenger who has gone on to win the presidency since 1968: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968 How can this not turn into another shellacking?
Update 5: Gallup sees a 15% swing in the ratio of Republican to Democrat voters in the 2012 election from the 2008 election. In 2008 it was D+12. This time it will be R+3. Gallup: 2012 Electorate More Republican than 2004 Tell me again how this wont translate into another shellacking?
Update 6: I had heard that undecideds on election day mostly break for the challenger. So I did a Google search:
Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger
Eighty percent of the undecided vote went to the challengers
72% of all undecideds broke toward the challenger
So tell me one more time how this wont translate into another shellacking?
Update 7: In 2008 on October 28 Obama had a 15% lead in early voting ballots. This election Romney has a 7% lead a 22% swing from 2008: Gallup: Obamas Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008
How can this not be another shellacking?
Hopefully this will be more like a beautiful, watertight varnishing.
This won't translate into another shellacking because we live in a totalitarian dictatorship/police state. Those who oppose a totalitarian dictator (or his police) do not get their way. They shellack no one.
a newbie and possibly a ramble rouser...welcome....nice to add your insights 6 days before the election...
Welcome to FR nOOb...
I’d like to say welcome to the newbie rabble-rouser.
Welcome to FR.
No one knows the future, and those that tell you THEY do, are about as likely to be right, as you.
Had someone come out Sunday evening and said that Hurricane Sandy was going to take an immediate left turn for no reason... that poster would have been ridiculed to no end.
Good job of putting together some links and facts to support your opinion.
I’d settle for plain ole white washing.
Thanks for the welcome.
What’s a ramble rouser?
Thank you for the welcome.
Nuke to solid glass would also work.
Out of orbit, of course.
Thank you for the welcome. What’s with the rabble-rouser? Does that have some in-house meaning at FR?
As for predicting the future, that’s not really the purpose of my post. It’s more of a raw-raw, go-team sort of thing. (Although I do personally think it will be a shellacking.)
Not really. I'd just let it slide off my back like water off a duck.
I've been predicting for months, since before the conventions, that Obama would lose by 59% to 39% popular vote, and take 140 or less electoral votes.
Fat chance, everyone says. That 47% of government dependent people won't give up the freebies, they say.
There are some numerical clues, and some not so numerical, that I strongly believe support the tsunami prediction.
Obama took Independents by +8 points in 2008; Romney now gets the Independents by +14 (probably much more). That's at least a 22-point shift to the (R) for a full third of the voting populace from 2008.
Story after story supports my contention that the 2008 turnout among black voters is NOT going to happen again. Some predict levels like 2004 or 2000, and of those who turn out, Obama will NOT be getting 96% like in 2008. For instance, in NC Obama is getting less than 80% of the black vote. That alone spells a Democrat apocalypse. He had to pay people to come to his stupid convention, and then he had to bus them in from SC, then Atlanta, then Pluto, just to fill a down-sized event.
There's more, but I believe the midwest coal and rust-belt states are going to fall to Romney like a domino train.
I'll put you down as an
optimist - extreme optimist.
Oh, stop bragging - I doubt you'll impress anyone here. ;-}
As fed up as Americans are at the state of the economy, I doubt complacency will be a problem.
Update 8: Turns out that the Romney lead in early voters in the last update may be more important than just the numbers. It seems base Democrats are voting early more so than base Republicans, leaving it more likely of a larger election day turnout for Republicans. (I have to admit though, that this one is a bit iffy to me.)
Some see GOP voting tsunami coming
Anyway, even if this doesnt work out, how will everything else not translate into another shellacking?
Someone rousing my ramble is nearly as traumatic as being shot in the fracas.
Believe me, getting capped in the fracas sure does smart.