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Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead
Wall Street Examiner ^ | November 1, 2012 | Russ Winter

Posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:10 PM PDT by Art in Idaho

Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls — the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. I’m not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romney’s lead.

As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.

From the Tampa Bay Herald: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.”

Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obama’s problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romney’s strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate. Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...


TOPICS: Education; History; Politics; Science
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 57states; election; mediawingofthednc; mymuslimfaith; partisanmediashills; politics; polls; romney
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Good article. Check out the Electoral Map at the end. Matches my map guess. . 301 for Romney.
1 posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:17 PM PDT by Art in Idaho
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To: Art in Idaho

They are telling us it’s close in hopes of getting Barry’s freeloader base to the polls.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 8:48:01 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: Art in Idaho

It may all come down to one county in Ohio. If Obama does not get a fair turn out in Cuyugo county in OH, its curtains for him.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 8:50:15 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

I sure hope it is a landslide. My stomach can’t take much more of this tension.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 8:50:24 PM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
They are telling us it’s close in hopes of getting Barry’s freeloader base to the polls.

You may be right. All of a sudden, after Romney having the lead and the momo, FOX calling it even. ?

5 posted on 11/01/2012 8:51:32 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho

A few days ago Rasmussin was interviewed on Fox and said that the week before an election the incumbent picks up a point or two. The in the last days, the undecideds typically go for the challenger.


6 posted on 11/01/2012 9:01:45 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: Steelfish

Ohio doesn’t matter anymore. With NC and FL going Romney, the libs are still hung up on Ohio.

This is gonna be a repeat of 1980. Sit back and enjoy the show. ;)


7 posted on 11/01/2012 9:02:15 PM PDT by kingpins10
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To: Art in Idaho

Could be because their Fox poll shows it tied at 46-46.

Could also be because none of the major polls are currently showing movement towards Romney. Some have shown no movement either direction. Others have shown small increases for Baraq this week.

I think it is pretty clear that Obammy got a slight bounce from the hurricane. Not much of one, but enough to stop Romney’s momentum at least temporarily.

I am thinking that Barry’s positive blip will disappear just as quickly as it showed up and that by the end of the weekend, we will start seeing the polls breaking towards Romney.

If so, it should carry through all the way to election day and propel us to victory!


8 posted on 11/01/2012 9:02:44 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish
I'm from Cuyahoga county and it is indeed a Democrat bastion. One of many reasons I'm now an I-4 corridor Floridian. :)

Anyway, for what it's worth, altogether too many of my relatives in inner city Cleveland voted for Barry in 2008. All of them have terrible buyer's remorse and plan to vote against him this year. I hear the Dem numbers in Cuyahoga are terrible compared to 2008. So, there is hope, albeit anecdotal until Tuesday.

9 posted on 11/01/2012 9:07:30 PM PDT by Publius Maximus (It was a nice Republic, while it lasted.)
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To: pfflier
A few days ago Rasmussin was interviewed on Fox and said that the week before an election the incumbent picks up a point or two. The in the last days, the undecideds typically go for the challenger.

Lets hope his prediction is correct. MSM is going full bore for Obama. They own the weekend too. .

10 posted on 11/01/2012 9:11:12 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Publius Maximus

I heard the first thing they did was take 100,000 dead Ohioans in Cuyahoga County off the rolls in 2010.


11 posted on 11/01/2012 9:11:12 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: pfflier

I didn’t hear Rasmussen say that, but that is the exact pattern I have noticed in past elections as well.

I think Sandy may have delayed it a bit, but as long as it holds true this time, Romney should have at least a three point win on election night.


12 posted on 11/01/2012 9:11:30 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: pollywog

I’ve been eating every comfort food in sight, pollywog. candy bars from Halloween, pretzel rolls, meatloaf, mashed potatoes. ..

Hmmm..not that great of a diet..but I figure after the election, I’ll go back to healthy(or not). Right now it’s out of the question.


13 posted on 11/01/2012 9:12:12 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
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To: Art in Idaho

I guarantee it’ll be a 20-30 point win, or my name isn’t Mutt the Hoople.


14 posted on 11/01/2012 9:13:15 PM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: Art in Idaho

Can you even imagine what the Sunday shows will be like? I’m not going to watch but you know Cutter and Axelnuts will be full throttle and absolutely nauseating.


15 posted on 11/01/2012 9:14:42 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
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To: Steelfish
I'm from Cuyahoga county and it is indeed a Democrat bastion. One of many reasons I'm now an I-4 corridor Floridian. :)

Anyway, for what it's worth, altogether too many of my relatives in inner city Cleveland voted for Barry in 2008. All of them have terrible buyer's remorse and plan to vote against him this year. I hear the Dem numbers in Cuyahoga are terrible compared to 2008. So, there is hope, albeit anecdotal until Tuesday.

16 posted on 11/01/2012 9:21:12 PM PDT by Publius Maximus (It was a nice Republic, while it lasted.)
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To: Publius Maximus

I read the same thing about low early turnout in Cuyahoga county. Obama is finished in OH if this is true and it continues. Your anecdotal evidence might be quite telling.

If early projections from Cuyahoga show a 10% drop in numbers) this election may be over by 10 p.m. EST since OH will most definitely be called for Romney. A win in IA or WI and this seals it. WI may be less difficult for Romney than IA.


17 posted on 11/01/2012 9:22:57 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Art in Idaho

Good! That keeps our side from being over confident. It should motivate people to go to the polls. I’d rather see headlines on November 7 about how surprising Romney’s margin of victory is rather than how Obama eked out a victory in the electoral college in spite of losing the popular vote.


18 posted on 11/01/2012 9:36:11 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: Steelfish

Rob Portman was just smiling away on Fox (Greta?) when he was interviewed tonite about the race in Ohio. Looked like the winners gleam to me.


19 posted on 11/01/2012 9:39:22 PM PDT by tflabo (Truth or Tyranny)
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To: kingpins10
This is gonna be a repeat of 1980. Sit back and enjoy the show. ;)

I sure hope so, but I don't expect Obama to concede just an hour after polls close on the east coast. I would expect he would wait till after they close in Californistan.

20 posted on 11/01/2012 9:39:35 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: tflabo

Beyond the polls, what does this election feel like? Feels like the country is ready for a change. They showed that clearly in 2010 and now things are even worse.

And I agree, Romney and his surrogates have seen pretty positive the last few days.

With the election field expanding into MI, PA, MN and OR, you gotta think Romney has the real toss up states locked up at this point. This is the same scenario in reverse as 2008. McCain was fighting to keep NC, and IN in the fold. And we saw how it played out. So I expect it to play out the same way on Tuesday. Romney will win by 5-6 points nationally and 300+ EVs.


21 posted on 11/01/2012 9:44:17 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: pollywog

You made it through the last four years. I read a few weeks back where a mom committed suicide because she thought Obama was going to win. Don’t let this eat away at you. We can always find a way out of any jam.


22 posted on 11/01/2012 9:44:35 PM PDT by InvisibleChurch (the mature Christian is almost impossible to offend)
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To: comebacknewt
An Incumbent under 50% is going to lose.
23 posted on 11/01/2012 9:51:18 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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Comment #24 Removed by Moderator

To: fortheDeclaration

Obama needs to be at a minimum of 48.5% in the final polls to have a chance to win it. That is right about where Bush was back in 2004 when he won.

If he falls back to around 47%, he is finished. If gets to 48.5% plus and can stay there, it should be super close.


25 posted on 11/01/2012 10:08:25 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Steelfish

This is all bread and circuses. Ohio will not be close folks. Romney will take Ohio by at least 4 and nationally Obama will not get past 42/43% of the popular vote.

Republican turnout will be +3/4 over dems

Romney will get independents by close to a 2-1 margin

Work hard. GOTV!!! But the whole this thin is neck and neck was nonsense from the get go.


26 posted on 11/01/2012 10:19:00 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: gswilder
Beyond the polls, what does this election feel like? Feels like the country is ready for a change. They showed that clearly in 2010 and now things are even worse.

Couldn't agree more.

Tea Party 9 12 2010 Washington DC

We're all voting again November 6th! You betcha'!

27 posted on 11/01/2012 10:43:11 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: comebacknewt

Relax guys Romney is set to win-—but only if we sprint to the finish line with him. Do your part, make sure everyone you know votes the correct—right—way.


28 posted on 11/01/2012 10:46:15 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: HamiltonJay

If the Catholic vote swings to Romney (even the Rats believe in religious freedom of conscience) this will be a landslide for him. The Catholic vote is broad and diverse and cuts across genders, ethnicity, and race.


29 posted on 11/01/2012 10:51:06 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Art in Idaho

In sum, my election prediction is a 3-percent edge for Romney in the popular vote, and 301 to 237 lead in the electoral vote


30 posted on 11/01/2012 10:53:30 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Art in Idaho

I think this was also Dick Morris’s prediction number as well. He was on Greta tonight. I like these figures.


31 posted on 11/01/2012 11:03:18 PM PDT by GOP Poet
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To: fortheDeclaration
In sum, my election prediction is a 3-percent edge for Romney in the popular vote, and 301 to 237 lead in the electoral vote.

Feel the same. Hope that's what we see on November 7th. Anything higher than 301 would be great. Hoping for 51 with the senate too.

32 posted on 11/01/2012 11:06:25 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Mountain Mary
Can you even imagine what the Sunday shows will be like?

Can't even watch Axe anymore, but I'm sure he'll be on full throttle.

33 posted on 11/01/2012 11:08:41 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Steelfish; HamiltonJay
If the Catholic vote swings to Romney (even the Rats believe in religious freedom of conscience) this will be a landslide for him. The Catholic vote is broad and diverse and cuts across genders, ethnicity, and race.

It would be deeply excellent if some of those Hispanic Catholic voters BO thinks he has locked up end up voting for Romney.

34 posted on 11/01/2012 11:26:49 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont
It would be deeply excellent if some of those Hispanic Catholic voters BO thinks he has locked up end up voting for Romney.

I think the American Catholic hispanic vote is going to be a lot higher for Romney than people are now predicting. I bet it's one of the 'surprises' of the data analysis after the election. Lots of reasons for Catholics to vote against Obama, an atheist, Muslim (?), (what is he?), . . and for Romney. Also, if I were a Catholic hispanic, I would have a big problem with the MSM!

35 posted on 11/01/2012 11:37:20 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Art in Idaho; Publius Maximus
"...Tampa Bay Herald..."

When did we get a Harold?

We got a Tribune and a Times (both for birdcage use only), but no Harold ...................................................... FRegards

36 posted on 11/01/2012 11:54:05 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: Art in Idaho; Perdogg; SoftwareEngineer; tatown
Two sentences that lifted my hopes:

"Obama has overwhelming support among black voters, but turnout is expected to drop to 59 percent this year, compared to the record breaking 65% in the last election. Among more unlikely voters ages 18-29, Obama has lost 13% of his margin since 2008, and can expect a much lower turnout to boot."

37 posted on 11/02/2012 2:16:23 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Up in red on Drudge. THe RNC is complaining about mass voter fraud with machines being rigged to default to Ostinko.

They pretend it is close because they are cheating big time.


38 posted on 11/02/2012 2:40:59 AM PDT by dforest
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To: Mountain Mary

On FOX this morning they were saying if Romney wins by less than 1% in Ohio the Dems will demand a recount, which would take to Nov. 11th. That’s not even considering a 2000 style court challenge. I think that’s likely in any state that’s close.

How much Halloween candy do you have on hand?


39 posted on 11/02/2012 3:20:22 AM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: All

This thread helps make me feel better about next Tuesday. This damn thing should be a blow-out but the media is keeping Barry in it.


40 posted on 11/02/2012 3:27:42 AM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: Publius Maximus

The absentee numbers from Cuyahoga are dismal for Ds-—they are down 6 points from 08.


41 posted on 11/02/2012 4:11:09 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tflabo

Kasich, who has been unwilling to make a prediction, this week said R would win OH and he had no doubt.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 4:13:32 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

So here’s my totally anecdotal evidence on this election, as I’m a resident of Cuyahoga County...

1 - Not nearly as many Obama signs as 2008. More Romney signs than McCain had, but they’re in areas that I’d predict them to be anyway.

2 - I early voted a week ago today. There was no line at the BOE, and I’d say there were maybe 10-15 others voting at the same time (around 8am). The BOE was definitely prepared for crowds, as they had around 30 workers ready for check-ins, and around 60-70 ballot booths set up.

3 - Judging from my Facebook wall, Obama wins in a landslide. (Ha!) Some of the nonsense that’s being passed around on Facebook is disgusting.


43 posted on 11/02/2012 6:35:59 AM PDT by epcot1982
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To: epcot1982

Heard from internal poll guy (take it FWIW) dead even in OH, so turnout should win this puppy by a couple.


44 posted on 11/02/2012 6:39:53 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Art in Idaho

I’ve been saying 322 (giving Romney PA and the one EV in Maine), but otherwise it looks identical to my prediction.


45 posted on 11/02/2012 6:41:45 AM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: LS

Bill Cunnigham was on Hannity and said with doubt OH would go Romney.


46 posted on 11/02/2012 7:07:36 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: InvisibleChurch
Thank you for the reminder to stay calm.

I have been riding these political polls until I feel seasick!!

I should read my own tag line once in a while... " Change and decay in all around I see;......

O THOU who changest not, abide with me."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxqylxfYyQM

47 posted on 11/02/2012 7:34:03 AM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Perdogg
Just spoke to Mont. Co. official who thinks it's a very real possibility we win Montgomery Co., and by enough to overcome the provisional ballots. Kasich won the county on election night, but lost by 150 provisionals.

All other things being equal, in normal circumstances, there is no way a D wins OH without carrying Montgomery Co. On the other hand, an R just has to not lose it by more than 4-5000. Bush lost, but it was close.

48 posted on 11/02/2012 7:55:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: comebacknewt

I predict R 53% o 47%.


49 posted on 11/02/2012 8:45:40 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: Art in Idaho; Hugin

Just came from a Rom. rally in Milwaukee. VIP seats cuz I was with my legislator friend.

Mittens looked and acted presidential, calm and in control.
We’ve gotta win this folks.

Wish us luck here in GROUND ZERO WISCONSIN TIMES 2.


50 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:18 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (Pray for our Republic...)
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