Skip to comments.TCJ Research: R51/O47 (D+2)
Posted on 11/01/2012 11:16:52 PM PDT by tatown
TCJ Research National Tracking
Mitt Romney- 51% (+1) Barack Obama- 47% (=)
10/30-10/31 1500 likely voters, M.O.E. 3%. 35% Democrats, 33% Republican, 32% Unaffiliated
(Excerpt) Read more at tcjresearch.wordpress.com ...
I don’t know this firm, but the numbers look very promising. The sample is reasonable (although still a bit Dem heavy) and gives the good guys a nice lead!
Thanks tatown. Had not seen this one.
I have never seen an election where each side was so confident they were going to win.
Obama’s guys laugh off the notion that it is even remotely possible that they lose, and I think they are sincere about that. Our analysts and pundits seem just as convinced that we are going to pull it off and seem downright giddy about it.
Guess it all comes down to whose turnout model proves to be correct. If the RATs really can deliver a +5 or better, then they very likely win.
On the other hand, if they are at +2 or worse like this poll and Gallup suggest, then we will get that blowout Dick Morris has been promising.
Anywhere in between, and we get the nail biter that most of the country is expecting (me included).
Sure looking like we are going to have to wait until late Tuesday night to see once and for all which side was correct.
Rush said he was already plotting the legal challenges.
Obama’s campaign is probably 100mil in debt. They need to keep the money flowing in because it will take four years of debt retirement efforts to pay that off.
Ironically, it will probably be Hillary and Bill that will have to help him.
Still don’t get why PPP gets used in RCP averages but not republican polling firms.