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Over 300 Electoral College Votes to Romney
11/2/2012 | David T.

Posted on 11/02/2012 3:27:27 AM PDT by Texas Critic

The 2012 election will usher in a new administration, and they will win in a landslide. While even dyed-in-the-wool Obama supporters are willing to admit that Romney will likely win 50% of the popular vote, they are just as quick to point to the 2000 election and the President’s current lead in the Electoral College. While this loyalty is commendable, the cognitive dissidence it requires is shameful. Romney will win this election in a landslide in both popular vote and Electoral College vote; with at least 54% of the popular vote and over 300 votes in the Electoral College. The reason Romney will win over 300 Electoral College votes, which is contrary to virtually all polling data, has less to do with the methodological errors in polling and more to do with the excessive amounts of available data that predict the President’s defeat. Currently there are roughly 11 swing states (NV, CO, PA, IA, FL, OH, MI, WI, NH, VA and MN). Within these swing states the really important information that needs to be looked at is the approval rating of the president as well as the enthusiasm gap of party identifiers. As of August the approval rating of the President was below 50% in all of these states. Until recently the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats within many of the states was greater than 10%. Generally the approval rating of a President within a state is a good indicator of what the final tally will be at the end of the day. There have been a few exceptions, but there are always exceptions, and when the disapproval rating is almost identical there are no exceptions. The enthusiasm gap has recently closed in many of these states, but a 10% - 15% jump in enthusiasm with virtually no external justification is suspect. Even if taken to be true, does not change the President’s approval rating and also stands in contrast to the groundwork already done in the months leading up to the election by the enthusiastic Republican supporters. This enthusiasm gap almost always mirrors the vote of so-called undecided voters. That is logical. If you are an undecided voter then you are more likely to support who your neighbor or friends are most excited about. An undecided voter who participates does so because someone takes the time to project their own excitement and conviction on them. In the end Romney will win NV, CO, OH, VA , PA, IA, FL, and WI. Of these states only CO has a Democratic governor, and in this case that won’t make a difference. The great thing about Romney having the potential to win by such a large margin is that the potential positive press President Obama is attempting to acquire from Hurricane Sandy will have a minimal effect on the final tally. In other words, if the President pushes Romney from the 317 or so and pushes Romney down to 297, it is no less of a landslide and a mandate on the policies of the extreme left.


TOPICS: Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: election; electoralcollege; ohio; swingstates

1 posted on 11/02/2012 3:27:33 AM PDT by Texas Critic
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To: Texas Critic

I still think it will come down to Colorado. I have said that for months. Romney will win but it will be closer than what some here think. Bottom line is that Romney wins which is what is most important. I am more worried about the Senate. I think we will gain 4 seats which is not enough to get back the Senate. We will keep the House. So we will have the Presidency and House and a closer Senate but still have Reid as Majority Leader. Romney is going to have to figure out how to get bills through with Reid....tough job but he worked with Mass which is a very liberal state.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 3:30:57 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: napscoordinator
Romney is going to have to figure out how to get bills through with Reid....tough job but he worked with Mass which is a very liberal state.

Outside of the budget, Romney should NOT try to get bills passed through Reid's Senate. Massachusetts is evidence of what happens when a Republican works with a Dem majority.
3 posted on 11/02/2012 3:42:43 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
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To: napscoordinator

Winning the Senate is crucial.

As long as there’s the threat that ObamaCare will be here to stay, the jobs will stay away.

High unemployment from now until Jan 20th is “Bush’s fault”.

The unemployment rate from Jan 20th will be “Romney’s fault” as the narrative will go for the next 4 years.

Politically (I stress politically) it would be better if Obama wins if we do not gain control of the Senate.

Unfortunately this election is not just about Republicans and democrats. It’s about America. Obama needs to go.

If Romney wins and Harry Reid is still in control of the Senate, I don’t see much economic improvement on the way anytime soon and we know who will be blamed for that.

We need to win the Senate.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 3:47:24 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: tsowellfan

Agree about winning the senate. I think it will come down to Todd Akin/Missouri and Scott Brown/Massachusetts. If they win then we (Republicans) will probably gain the senate. Gingrich talks like Akin will win. However, haven’t heard much about Scott. Anybody got good G2 on him?


5 posted on 11/02/2012 3:58:38 AM PDT by snoringbear (Government is the Pimp,)
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To: snoringbear

And what happens sometime down the pike if there’s a democrat Senator from NJ who has to step down for any wrong doing such as hookers in the Domincan republic.

Who is in charge of choosing his replacement?


6 posted on 11/02/2012 4:01:25 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: snoringbear

Todd Akin/Missouri and Scott Brown/Massachusetts

I wonder where they are in the polls


7 posted on 11/02/2012 4:03:06 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: napscoordinator

So who’s ready with this cycles “Sore Loserman?” I’m not smart enough to think of one, not yet anyway.

The true nightmare scenario is a close EC win for Romney regardless of the PV. If that happens expect a full on push from the MSNBC types to flip some of the electors for the “good of the country.” We obviously aren’t smart enough to make the right choice ourselves.


8 posted on 11/02/2012 4:06:36 AM PDT by CPONuke
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To: Dr. Sivana

We are going to take the Senate.


9 posted on 11/02/2012 4:11:13 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: CPONuke

Where do you guys come up this stuff?


10 posted on 11/02/2012 4:12:25 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Texas Critic

President’s current lead in the Electoral College—and what is this assessment based on? media polls?


11 posted on 11/02/2012 4:21:54 AM PDT by richardtavor
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To: tsowellfan; snoringbear

Todd Akin is statistically tied with McCaskill, but down a percentage, or two. It’ll come down to voter turnout here in Missouri.

As for Scott Brown, He’s was trailing Fauxcahontas. That’s Massachusetts for ya’...

Cheers


12 posted on 11/02/2012 4:50:29 AM PDT by DoctorBulldog (Hey, Libtards, how's the Moral Imperative to close Gitmo working out for ya'?)
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To: DoctorBulldog; tsowellfan; snoringbear

Sorry for the bad grammar, this morning. I just woke up and am still waiting for the coffee to brew. Until I get that first cup, my proofreading skills are zilch!

Cheers!


13 posted on 11/02/2012 4:53:57 AM PDT by DoctorBulldog (Hey, Libtards, how's the Moral Imperative to close Gitmo working out for ya'?)
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To: DoctorBulldog

Thanks, I like the “Fauxcahontis”! Yah, don’t know what’s in their water.


14 posted on 11/02/2012 5:08:25 AM PDT by snoringbear (Government is the Pimp,)
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To: fortheDeclaration
We are going to take the Senate.

I think the Republicans (to many RINOs to call it "we") will take the Senate as well. I was just disagreeing with the idea that Romney should try to pass anything (ouutside of a budget) in a Harry Reid Senate.
15 posted on 11/02/2012 5:36:41 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
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To: Texas Critic

<p>

Paragraphs are your friends.

Cognitive dissidence dissonance

16 posted on 11/02/2012 5:40:01 AM PDT by Bon mots (Abu Ghraib: 47 Times on the front page of the NY Times | Benghazi: 2 Times)
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To: napscoordinator

Why is a gain of four senate seats, with Romney winning, not enough to take back the senate?


17 posted on 11/02/2012 5:56:50 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

I’m not sure why he said that, but possibly because, if we only have a lead of 1-2 seats, the Dems will appeal to the “moderate” Republicans to switch sides or go independent, in order to keep things “fair” and stop the evil Conservatives from controlling all 3 branches of government. That’s their usual game plan.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 6:30:02 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: snoringbear

There’s a chance with McMahon in CT as well.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 6:49:36 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: tsowellfan

Well, I googled your question. I couldn’t find an extensive answer but it appears the governor is empowered to call a special election “if he wants to” . I took this to mean the governor could also leave the seat vacant if he/she so chose to do so. But, not sure. Perhaps if the deposed senator was nearing the end of his/her term maybe that would be the logical choice. But, as I said, couldn’t find a definitive answer on this.


20 posted on 11/02/2012 7:50:36 AM PDT by snoringbear (Government is the Pimp,)
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To: snoringbear

Thank you!


21 posted on 11/02/2012 7:51:48 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Texas Critic

Based on the early voting, NV doesn’t look good for Romney. However, OH is looking good.

Most agree Romney has IN, NC, FL, and VA. Rasmussen given Romney CO, IA, NH, and OH as well, with WI being a tie. That would give Romney either 285 or 295 depending on WI.

Rove is projecting Obama at 48%, for a final result of 51% to 48%. I think this is the most likely scenario. I was hoping for a bigger win for Romney, and that might happen (particularly PN looks possible), but I think the most likely scenario will be close to 2004.

I’m surprised so many polls show Obama up in Ohio. Ohio doesn’t seem to be going well at all for him, based on the early voting. Dem turnout doesn’t seem to be nearly high enough.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 9:19:16 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: napscoordinator

This is an interesting comment. Colorado is the state which pushed Obama over in 2008. He could have won without Ohio, and still could, in a perfect storm scenario, by carrying IA, WI, NV, CO and NH (270 to 266 win).

I live in CO. I voted already, and found the ballot a bit confusing. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play.

I’d be surprised to see Obama win this time around. Not much enthusiasm here. I saw a yard sign, post on a fence, which said something like “Obama for President” and someone else wrote “Who Cares?”, which I think about sums things up here. I live in a Dem part of town, in Denver, and enthusiasm is down.


23 posted on 11/02/2012 9:23:44 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: fortheDeclaration

Not get sarcasm much? I am serious about MSNBC though. If its close they Will advocate for the electors overriding the voters. Does anyone expect less from Matthews and Co?


24 posted on 11/03/2012 6:49:57 AM PDT by CPONuke
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