Skip to comments.How to Be the First to Know Who’s Winning Tonight
Posted on 11/06/2012 3:51:44 PM PST by Stat Man
The experts will tell you that the swing states will decide the winner of tonights election.
And thats certainly true.
But dont make the easy mistake of following their faulty logic that since the swing states will decide the winner, results in other states are irrelevant.
In fact, results in other states can tell us early whether or not the polls this year are accurate, as liberals hope, or skewed with oversampling of Democrats as many conservative pundits believe. Tonight Ill be using a spreadsheet where Ive entered the tipping point for each state, as a value between -77.8 (District of Columbia) and 41.2 (Utah), representing the percentage margin Romney would be expected to be ahead (positive values) or behind (negative values) Obama in each state, if the election was a dead heat.
As results come in, if Romney is significantly outperforming these numbers, Ill know hell probably win the election. If the current polls are right, Romney will be underperforming these numbers by a couple percentage points, and Ill know Obama will probably win. If the race breaks either way and isnt too close to call, I suspect I might be able to predict that a bit earlier than the media will be willing to do, because they will rely solely on swing state returns.
If the race remains too close to call, ...
So how can you play along at home? ...
(Excerpt) Read more at choirpreacher.blogspot.com ...
Just listen to Michael Barone. He’s a walking talking political encyclopedia when it comes to precincts, counties and states. The guy knows his crap. We used to have a guy li8kie that here. One Torie. Kinda miss that ole moderate and his spreadsheets.
4 years ago Obama did much better ~
If I hadn’t spent the last 10 hours looking at spreadsheets I’d do this:-)
Where is Barone? Does he have a website, or should we just check Fox or such?
Vigo County Indiana (Terre Haute) has predicted winner of the election since 1956. Right now nearly 70% vote in and Romney leading 50-48. Went 57% for O in 2008. Also Virginia closing polls in a few minutes.
>> Tonight Ill be using a spreadsheet where Ive entered the tipping point for each state, as a value between -77.8 (District of Columbia) and 41.2 (Utah), bla bla bla &etc
I’ll bet that besides being an excel whiz, you can also spell “anal retentive” and get it right WITHOUT spell check!
Tonight I’ll be opening up my Excel...lent Belgian ale, and studying the “tipping point” at which each state in between “warm glow” and “comatose” occurs. I predict 8.37 ounces to “glow”, with a MOE of +/- 1 oz. The rest of the numbers will come in later in the evening.
(But seriously, I’m glad SOMEONE is doing this statistical stuff. Just not me.)
Watch Vigo County. It always votes the winner.
I may hit the bottle AFTER I know who wins.
4% of precincts from KY and IN in with Romney way above these tipping points.
Which makes me wonder. Isn’t it usually the case that early returns favor Republicans and later returns favor Democrats, because big city precincts take longer to count? That could be a flaw in this method.
We’re closing the computers and partying with friends and neighbors. It’s a sanity-preserving exercise.
Have fun with your stats!
(P.S. — my inside sources — OK, ok, it’s just my insides — tell me Romney-Ryan is going to win.)
My wife just said the local radio here in KY said that with most precincts giving results, Romney has 70%. To the subject of the OP, that’s 14 points higher than my huffington post map put it.
Yeah, that is usually true. With only 4% in we aren't going to know if its above or below the tipping point unless we have tipping point data for the particular areas in the 4%.
I will be partaking in your “tipping point” analysis here in a few minutes.
Got a little bit of work to finish up and then I am going to turn on FOX News, sit back and toast the Republican, God willing, landslide victory!
Good news, thanks. I’ve been waiting to see how much the vote swings in early states.
He’s on Fox right now.
Seven states now with partial results in the spreadsheet I made based on this blog’s idea.
Shows Romney 29% chance of winning vs 71% for Obama.
Romney trailing early in FL and NC main reasons why.
Like you say, I think this is probably flawed, depending on where the early votes are coming from. Once a lot of states are beyond 50% of precincts in, this system probably starts approximating reality and becomes a lot more useful.
14 states now with partial results, 2 with 50% or more in.
Romney 32%, Obama 68% chance of winning.
Exit polling sounds bad for Romney too.
I’m not ready to call this, but it isn’t looking good.
I’d watch that, if Holder’s people riot tonite and tomorrow, you might need a real steady hand.
22 states with partial returns in, 3 at 50% or more
Romney 27%, Obama 73% chance of winning.
Hmm... Odds are if I’m hitting the bottle, they won’t be rioting, if you know what I mean.
I got you. Stop before you hit ‘coma’. There’s only one way the other side is gonna off me and I won’t make it very easy.
I hear you.
I gotta move though. It’ll be easy for them with me simply because when I say I represent the 1% it’s not about income, it’s the percentage of Republicans in my neighborhood.
40 states now with partial returns in, 10 at 50% or more precincts in.
Romney 21, Obama 79 percent chance of winning.
I’m almost ready to call this over before the media does.
At this point, Romney only wins with freakish voting in Ohio and some other swing state like Colorado that runs counter to Obama’s results in the rest of the country.
44 states with partial returns in, 17 with 50% or more precincts in.
Romney 23%, Obama 77% chance of winning.
Romney under-performing “tipping point” in most states (27 of the 44).
However, creeping back towards Romney since my last check.
Must wins now are FL, VA, OH and one other swing state... probably CO only one possible.
OH and CO looking unlikely but possible at the moment.
I’m still close to calling this for Obama, but not ready yet.
Well, I’m not sure this system achieved it’s desired goal. When I punched in the numbers that finally convinced me it was over, all but 4 states partially in, 34 states over 50% in, Obama 85% chance of winning, it was almost to the moment that Fox called Ohio and the whole race for Obama.
So I say it was a tie.