a. Tax increases haven’t hit yet.
b. Falling revenues seem more likely to be the effect of the leading edge of a recession. Earnings, sales are down.
c. The article discussed the sociology of high income earners. Which is fine as far as that goes. People who are wealthy in California aren’t likely to leave just because of this increase. The real problem though is that business formation and growth in California is busted. New rich people are more likely to start getting rich elsewhere. And there is the marginal effect of tax avoidance.
Yeah, I think the taxes take effect next month.
They are using projections. So if the increased tax income is less, the deficit will actually be higher than they are projecting.
You're not considering the fact that people of means don't have to leave California to have their income leave California. Many of them do exactly that, spend considerable time where they like in CA as tourists, but are legal residents and taxpayers of other states.
People of means can Californiaproof their wealth while spending small amounts of time outside the state, and they do.