He gets the concept and understands the plan ... I am on my horse.
Posted on 05/22/2013 4:11:02 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier
I like it: a bunch of lib candidates split the socialist vote while a favorite son rallies the pro-life vote and rises to the top. It could happen.
Sounds like a plan—it’s an unwinnable CD for Republicans, and a socially conservative Democrat might be able to slip in over divided opposition in the Democrat primary. But are there any pro-life, pro-marriage Democrats in that district with a profile that would allow them to win the lrimary? You can’t run Joe Shmoe, a social conservative who works at a Walmart and is unexperienced in politics, and expect him to win, even if (especially if) he campaigned as a pro-life, pro-marriage candidate. What we need is some local pol from Framingham or Lexington or something, who will run on his “experience getting things done” and on a few liberal rallying points (labor, to be sure, but perhaps also some environmentalist crap or opposition to capital punishment or something, and whose conservative views on abortion and marriage are kept out of the spotlight. I think that, in that hellishly liberal district, trumpeting a candidate’s social conservatism in the Democrat primary would bring about certain defeat, since the only way that liberal voters will allow such a candidate to slip by is if they are caught unaware. Just my two cents.
your 2 cents contain more sense than all the conservatives in Boston combined who’ve stopped trying to punch their way out of their paperbag. Or something.
Theoretically that's possible. I wouldn't bet on it in Massachusetts, though. The kind of blue collar social conservatism you find in other states isn't strong here, and Markey's district was crafted to avoid the few such strongholds there are.
I don't know the candidates in the race, but I suspect the Medford and Somerville candidates would poll well in that corner of the district but take votes away from each other. A Natick candidate would be strong in his end of the district. The Belmont candidate would take all the liberal voters in between and carry the primary.
Winthrop gave the state Ed King, a very conservative Democrat, and Waltham is the home of Republican Joe Malone, but affluent liberal voters in places like Lexington dominate in the Democrat primary. If the candidates actually do split that block an outsider has a chance, but if not, then it's a lost cause.
Once upon a time, Democrats like Lynch were common in the state, but nowadays to make it over the hurdles in Democratic politics in Massachusetts, you have to be more liberal than Lynch is.
strange analysis. Lynch got 43% in the primary vs. Markey. Obviously, he did poorly in the 5th CD .... Markey’s home. There are plenty of voters who reject the far left Mass-Equality Naral candidates.
All 5 of the candidates are NARAL Mass-Equality endorsed. I guess the rest of the voters go unrepresented. All 3% of them.
WOnder if it easy to look up how Lynch did vs Markey in Markey’s district in the Senate primary ... or town by town. Shows a base vote of voters who are not knee-jerk progressives.
new 5th CD.
Here are the results by town: http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2013/senate-primary/mass-us-senate-dem-primary-results-2013.html
Lynch's 43% statewide was a respectable showing, I guess, but in the more affluent and liberal towns in Markey's district and beyond, Markey beat Lynch by a margin of 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1 and more.
This is the Democratic primary and the voters tend to be what Howie Carr calls "moonbats," especially in the more liberal precincts. If numbers are any indication, they really, really didn't like Steve Lynch.
Of course, it's not the general election, and those margins don't apply to the whole state, but you can see the bind someone like Lynch is in. In a one to one Democratic primary race he can't outpoll the moonbats' favorite.
If you add together Lynch's vote with the Republican vote, you just might get a winning number, but a lot of those people who voted for Lynch would never vote for a Republican, so even though more people might possibly favor a more conservative candidate (by Massachusetts' standards) they are out of luck.
Unenrolled voters can vote in either party, but in the special Senate primary there were candidates on the Republican ballot, so some independents who might otherwise have voted for Lynch didn't.
The old socially conservative Democrats aren't that plentiful any more. Conceivably a socially conservative Democrat could rally them, but until then, if they vote in the Democratic primary at all, they vote for the candidate who's "most like" them geographically and ethnically, and hope for the best.
OK, I am posting to this thread from back in May as a follow-up to Pete’s idea to run a socially conservative Democrat in the MA-05 special primary for Markey’s vacant seat. This is what I wrote back in May in response to Pete’s suggestion:
“Sounds like a plan—it’s an unwinnable CD for Republicans, and a socially conservative Democrat might be able to slip in over divided opposition in the Democrat primary. But are there any pro-life, pro-marriage Democrats in that district with a profile that would allow them to win the lrimary? You can’t run Joe Shmoe, a social conservative who works at a Walmart and is unexperienced in politics, and expect him to win, even if (especially if) he campaigned as a pro-life, pro-marriage candidate. What we need is some local pol from Framingham or Lexington or something, who will run on his “experience getting things done” and on a few liberal rallying points (labor, to be sure, but perhaps also some environmentalist crap or opposition to capital punishment or something, and whose conservative views on abortion and marriage are kept out of the spotlight. I think that, in that hellishly liberal district, trumpeting a candidate’s social conservatism in the Democrat primary would bring about certain defeat, since the only way that liberal voters will allow such a candidate to slip by is if they are caught unaware. Just my two cents.”
Well, I think that the field is set for the October 15 primary for MA-05, and there are seven Democrats running. By their campaign websites, six of them are clearly pro-abortion and anti-gun, and probably all pro-same-sex-marriage (some are more explicitly pro-same-sex-marriage than others): State Senator Will Brownsberger, State Senator Katherine Clark, Middlesex County Sheriff Peter Koutoujian, ex-Lexington School Board Member Martin Long, state Representative Carl Sciortino and State Senate Majority Whip Karen Spilka. Five of those six are heavy hitters, and should each be good for 15%+ of the vote. If they split that vote fairly evenly, that would allow “home improvement contractor and community activist” Paul John Maisano to win with as little as 20% of the vote.
Maisano appears to be an old-fashioned labor Democrat, not one of those “progressive” Daily Kos types. See http://www.pauljohnmaisanoforcongress.com/ I find it curious that the other six Democrat candidates very clearly stated their allegiance to the Abortion Industry, the Gun Grabbers and the Gay Lobby, but Maisano lists ten issues, and “choice,” gun control and gay rights are nowhere to be found: http://www.pauljohnmaisanoforcongress.com/#!page2/cjg9
So I think that there’s a good chance that Maisano is a stealth social conservative. Of course, he’s also a nobody with no money, not exactly the type of candidate whom I suggested could win a divided primary with Republican crossovers. This means that getting Maisano across the finish line won’t be easy, but it is doable if Republicans quietly decide to go vote in the Democrat primary and pull the lever for Maisano, and the liberal Democrats all fight over which of the five heavyweights is the dreamiest.
So, Pete, sounds like you have some work to do. : )
yeeeeee haaaaaaaa!
yep, i coulda saved you the trouble on the big 5 that I researched in the spring that they are all NARAL & Marriage Equality freaks. Long is new ... guess he is bad too.
But we got one.
I got a place to stay overnight there, too. SO I can get into gear!!!
Rub some Chobani on yourself and play this song afterwards:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gEdQ5KpY8Y
It’s what I do on special occasions.
I remember that song, haven’t heard it in a while.
Do you like Greek yogurt?
I’ve noticed there’s quite the craze going on with it.
“Do you like Greek yogurt?”
No more or less than any other yogurt. I felt the combo of the yogurt and music fit campaignpeter-ct’s announcement.
Not quite a plan, but definitely material for a follow up. Count me in.
Good job, Pete! Did Maisano confirm that he does not hold liberal views on social issues?
Heard Laura Ingraham on the radio today and she made an observation that might be relevant here. She said that the previous divides of republican vs. democrat or conservative vs. liberal is giving way to the new divide of the “washington elites” (both sides) vs. “we the people” (both sides).
Might be something, might be nothing. Thought I’d pass it on.
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