Skip to comments.Official 2013 VA Governor Vote Prediction Spreadsheet (Home Game Version)
Posted on 05/30/2013 3:59:47 PM PDT by parksstp
Tired of listening to Pollsters/Pundits give their take on something they don't know anymore than we do? Wondering how one poll shows a candidate up 5, and another showing the same candidate down 6? Well now's your chance to look at the data yourself and make your own predictions, sniff out fraud, and beat the pollsters to the punch with the new Official 2013 VA Governor Vote Prediction Spreadsheet.
This is the home game version because instead of myself filing in the data in the prediction columns, I've left them empty so that you can fill in your own predictions for every one of Virginia's 134 Counties/Independent Cities. I'll show you the methodology I normally use, and hopefully, for VA FReepers this can serve as a tool for aiding Cuccinelli and Jackson. The data comes from the state of VA website so all the numbers have been checked and rechecked.
Additional Information Listed Below.
Column A: Listing of All 134 VA Counties and Independent Cities in order of Voter Turnout from the 2012 General Election.
Columns B-F: Results of the 2004 Presidential Election between Bush and Kerry showing Total Voters, Votes, and Percentage of Vote for each Candidate.
Columns G-K: Results of the 2005 VA Governor's Race between Kilgore and Kaine showing Total Voters, Votes, and Percentage of Vote for each Candidate.
Columns L-P: Results of the 2008 Presidential Election between McCain and Obama showing Total Voters, Votes, and Percentage of Vote for each Candidate.
Columns: Q-Y: Results of the 2009 VA Governor's Race between McDonnell and Deeds showing Total Voters, Votes, and Percentage of Vote for each Candidate. Also included in the 2009 VA Attorney General race between Cuccinelli and Shannon to compare differences in votes between their party's GOV candidate and any pick-up/drop-off.
Columns Z-AD: Results of the 2012 Presidential Election between Romney and Obama, showing Total Votes, Votes, and Percentage of Vote for each Candidate.
The Statewide Totals/Percentages in all Races are listed in Row 138.
Columns AE-AM: This is the space for making predictions for the 2013 VA Gov/Lt.Gov Races.
Column AE: Total Voters: The number of Total Voters that will cast votes for either Cuccinelli or McCauliffe in that particular County/Independent City. A method I normally use would be to look at the 2004/08/12 turnouts, notice how much they increased/decreased, then look at the 2005/09 turnouts and how they related to the previous election turnout percentage. For example, in Fairfax County, the 05 Turnout was 58% of 2004 Turnout. This 05 to 04 comparison may be misleading, however, because VA grew quite a bit in the last decade and continues to grow. In 09, the Turnout was only 53%. This seems like a big gap, but the probability is that Fairfax county experienced growth during 04-05. In other words, lets say if a Presidential Election had been held in 2005, my guess is there would have been around 480,000 voters in FC making the GOV turnout number at 56%. There was not much of an 08 to 12 total voter increase however leading me to believe that the 2013 Turnout will be around the same percentages as in 2009, if not lower. Somewhere in the 53-54% of 2012 Turnout range is probably closest, maybe 281,000. McCauliffe would like this number in the 290's, and if over 300K might be problematic for Cuccinelli depending on his totals. The Tea Party presence was strong in VA in 2009, they still seem to have the upper hand here, but I think the numbers might drop slightly into the 260's for total turnout. In either case, you'll have to make these decisions for each county/independent city. I suggest starting with the smaller areas because those are much less volatile and the totals can almost be guaranteed to an extent.
Column AF/AH: Represents the Total number of Votes to Assign in each County to Cuccinelli and McCauliffe, respectively. Here the key is to look at how Bush, Kilgore, McCain, McDonnell, and Romney performed in the same areas, but we can also see Cuccinelli's performance in the 09 AG race and whether or not there was a dropoff or pick-up from McDonnell's totals. Those voters "should" be back but will they? Meanwhile, as much as the leftists don't like Cuccinelli or conservatives, taking a trip to DU or Blue Virginia shows they are not exactly in love with McCauliffe either. Obama is not on the ballot. It's hard to see at this juncture McCauliffe doing drastically better than Deeds or Kaine, but again. Look at the data. You may have to dip into additional County/City demographics to get a more accurate result. At the bottom of the Spreadsheet below Row 138, I provided the Exit Poll Turnout Data. It's repeated here:
2004 - R-39 D-35 I-26 (R+4) 2004 - Males - 46 Females - 54 (F+8) 2004 - White - 72 AA -21 Others -7 (W+51)
2005 - (Data Not Available as no Exit Polls were Conducted)
2008 - R-33 D-39 I-28 (D+6) 2008 - Males - 46 Females 54 (F+8) 2008 - White - 70 AA-20 Others -10 (W+50)
2009 - R-37 D-33 I-30 (R+4) 2009 - M -48 F-52 (F+4) 2009 - White 78 AA 16 Others 6 (W+62)
2012 - R-32 D-39 I-29 (D+7) 2012 - M -47 F - 53 (F+6) 2012 - W -70 AA-20 Other-10 (W+50)
Talk about some drastic numbers between the General/State Elections. It seems the best guess would be an electorate of 47-48% Males and 52-53% Females, White Voters around 73-74%, AA's at 17-18, and Others at 9-10%. Not certain who will have the party edge on turnout.
Reports are already coming in that McCauliffe is underperforming among AAs and other minorities. Ideally, he would like this number to make up 30% of the 2013 Electorate, but it currently looks like 22-23% (16+7). Currently, these voters just aren't that interested or motivated to vote in the State races at this time. That will be on McCauliffe to get them to the polls. Personally, I don't think he has the charisma or ability to do it, even as his fellow libs don't like him a whole lot.
Using all this data, I estimate Cuccinelli is somewhere in near his 2009 total at 125,000, while McCauliffe has benefitted some from FC demo increases and is around 150,000 in Fairfax County. Those are just my best guesses and might seem big, but there are many small areas where Cuccinelli will win handily. Now, if Cuccinelli falls to around 111,000 and McCauliffe gets past Deeds total of 165,000-170,000, then there might be trouble ahead. Plug in numbers like this if you start seeing polls showing McCauliffe ahead to see how it would play out in the state if Cucinelli could catch him.
Columns AG/AI: Are the Percentage of Votes to the Total Voters. Again compare how previous candidates did, but you may need to take into account additional information.
Columns AJ-AM: This covers the Lt Gov Race. I included it here because for Tea Party people strong in backing Cuccinelli, if they come out and vote the party line like they did in 2009, Jackson should win, as they have the advantage.
But party splitting is quite possible. From what I've gathered, Northam is a RINO that could probably defeat Jackson in the General, but the Democrats may be weary of trusting him after he opted to hold talks about party switching to give the GOP control of the VA Senate to break the current 20-20 tie. He might still try to pull this if elected, which is why I think the lesser known Chopra will be chosen instead.
Anyway this is what I've compiled. Have fun and go at it, and beat Larry Sabato to the punch. I decided to create one of these after there was concern for Jackson's nomination damaging Cuccinelli's chances. For VA Freepers/Tea Party you know where the votes are and who needs to turn out.
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