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Posted on 08/12/2013 5:28:43 AM PDT by cotton1706
The world of political projections was rocked by a pair of recent polls showing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell narrowly trailing his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. Prognosticators split on the importance of these data points. The Cook Political Report moved the race to "tossup" status, while Larry Sabato and Stu Rothenberg stuck with calling McConnell the heavy favorite.
I’ll confess that when I started writing this piece, I intended to demonstrate why Cook was correct. I’d even said as much on Twitter. But as I worked through it, I found myself unconvinced by what I was writing. Looking at what has been going on in Kentucky politics at the federal level over the course of the past decade, we can’t call this race a tossup for now. Leans Republican seems more appropriate, or perhaps even Likely Republican.
Let’s start with why I initially thought that the race was a tossup. Kentucky is an odd state politically. It’s obviously very Republican today at the presidential level. But at the state level, Democrats are very much alive and well. Democrats hold all of the statewide offices except for agriculture commissioner. They won the 2011 gubernatorial race by 20 points. Democrats hold an 18-seat edge in the state House of Representatives.
It is also one of the few states in the union where an outright majority of registered voters are Democrats; in fact, 54 percent of the population belongs to the party of Jackson (38 percent are Republican). Using various measurements of party affiliation, only Maryland has a higher share of voters who consider themselves Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Ping.
Mentioned is the rat majority in the State House which is overdue to be erased.
The whole GOP is in trouble because the Democrats keep building their voters and cheating better.
It is not only that, we conservatives get fooled by so called conservatives like Rubio who turn on us once they get in office.
In TN our primary’s are so rigged that if 2 conservatives run against a left leaning moderate the moderate always wins, as neither conservative will back down, not even the one losing bad in the polls. So they split the vote and we Corker and Halsam.
I moved from Seattle to KY a couple of years ago. I’m really looking forward to seeing this guy go. Who knows? If the republicans become conservative again they may even win me back. It will take a lot more “Paul’s and Cruz’s” though.
Wrong..... The GOP is in trouble because they are nothing more then the other side of a marxist coin. The softer socialist side. While the constituents still believe they are a truly different party with actual different value system than the democrats. They are both statist, anti constitutional parties.
I agree with you,unfortunately Kentucky is in the same boat as many states. There are a couple of cities whose large population dominates at the upper state level of elections, Louisville and Lexington. Of the two of them, Louisville is the worst of the two.
Still though I do have hope, things do seem to be changing slowly. What’s holding it back though is so many people are on the Government teat and the Unions are still a major influence on the politicians.
...so many people are on the Government teat ...
I’m near a small town so we spend a fair amount of time at Wal-Mart. I honestly believe that those of us that pay for our goods out of our own money are in the minority.
The GOP is in trouble because they are nothing more then the other side of a marxist coin.
I have every confidence that those early polls showing him neck-and-neck with Ashley Judd were accurate. If the Dems can put up some celebrity candidate who is not a stark raving looney, he’s toast.
Then we need to replace him with Bevin. I hope the people of Kentucky do that. McConnell will pull the usual “the people of Kentucky need experienced leadership and I’m on the verge of being Majority Leader. That’s good for Kentucky.” When in reality, he wants the power for himself, not for Kentucky.
McConnell has gone along with Reid the last couple of years in increaing the power of the majority leader because he expected to be majority leader after 2010 and 2012. And Harry Reid’s been loving all his new power.
Cornyn is the minority whip. He'll expect to step into the leadership spot if McConnell goes down.
“Cornyn is the minority whip. He’ll expect to step into the leadership spot if McConnell goes down.”
Oh, I know. That’s why I would like to see him removed too. After his disastrous stint as head of the NRSC, his instincts are not toward conservatism.
I’m near a small town so we spend a fair amount of time at Wal-Mart. I honestly believe that those of us that pay for our goods out of our own money are in the minority.
I agree completely, it’s to the point that we will not go shopping from the first to the fifth of the month. After that it’s pretty good though, clean stores, few people and good service.
If Liz Cheney really wanted a senate seate to carpetbag I wish she had gone after Cornyn. Her father has plenty of influence in the state through his time with Halliburton. The Bush's probably would have helped behind the scenes. As a state with a large number of recent arrivals, her total lack of roots in Texas wouldn't have bothered as many people as her total lack of roots in Wyoming will do with folks living there. She could well have knocked Cornyn off. In any event she would have had a better chance there than she will against Enzi. But that was not to be so Cornyn will waltz back into office.
When I lived in Seattle, the only Wal-Mart near us was Renton. It was an absolute pit. I never bought anything there.
Here it is where everyone shops. A completely different experience. But yeah, we avoid those days.
McConnel in trouble? Try the entire party. The dems have their strategy for 2014 all lined up. Run Trojan Horse (so called blue dog) candidates and label Republicans as “extremist” for opposing Obama’s agenda. Oh, but those blue dogs are problem solvers and not extremist partisans the MSM will say. Never mind it was blue dogs that voted in Obamacare. Never mind that most Americans oppose Obama’s agenda. Somehow, the Republicans will fail to connect their party with that opposition to his majesty’s agenda.
Instead of capitalizing on that the Republicans will breathe life into the dems strategy by attacking those in their own party that oppose Obamacare and immigration reform. They will stop pressing on the scandals plaguing the regime. To do that would seem too partisan. Instead, we will get apologies and an appeal to the mushy middle. Hello speaker Pelosi.
Someone please tell me where I am wrong.
I pray that he is.
LLS
Kentucky is a WEIRD state, politically..
That said, Republicans have not been putting up good candidates.. Hell, I even voted for the Rat, Beshear, for govenor in his second run. He’s done an OK job.. and, I can’t stand pious David Williams... His stance on slots at the track is KILLING the horse racing business here.
That said, I don’t see ANY way R’s lose the senate seat here. Mitch will have a tougher battle with Bevins than he will with Alice.
Both guys are ALREADY running a LOT of TV ads... very negative, both ways... and this is August?? Man... it’s a LONG way to go. We’re going to be sick of these guys.
At this point... I have to think the McConnell the turtle will pull it out. He has more experience, and money. But, I woudn’t bet on the race either way. The ANTI-TURTLE sentiment is VERY high round here.
Bevins seems pretty competent. If he can continue presenting a positive message, and not say something STUPID... he’s got a chance.
Hear, hear! Texas needs to replace Cornball Cornyn...the ONLY time he appears remotely conservative is during campaign season.
>> Cornyn is the minority whip. He’ll expect to step into the leadership spot if McConnell goes down.
Not sure that’ll be much of an improvement.
I think it'd be more of the same old, same old.
Sean Trende is as much a blogger as Michael Barone. /s
From what I am seeing right now, I am going to stick with Mitch. I get this funny feeling about Bevin. He isn’t a conservative and who the heck is he? Most haven’t even heard of him.
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