Skip to comments.Super Premium Treasuries and Janet Yellen
Posted on 10/08/2013 6:39:44 PM PDT by whitedog57
Here is an interesting idea from UBS interest rate strategists Mike Schumacher and Boris Rjavinski. It is called super premium Treasuries.
Here is how it works.
1. The U.S. government takes in $277 billion in tax revenues each month, and spends $452 billion each month, for a monthly deficit of around $175 billion.
2. It also has, on average, call it $100 billion of Treasury notes coming due each month.
Instead of just rolling those Treasuries paying them off at 100 cents on the dollar by issuing new Treasuries at 100 cents on the dollar it should pay them off at 100 cents on the dollar by issuing new Treasuries at 275 cents on the dollar and using the extra money to pay its bills.
The 10-year yield today is around 2.6 percent, so you could sell a 10-year with a 23 percent coupon for 275 cents on the dollar.
The 30-year is about 3.9 percent, so a 14 percent coupon should get you there.
Thats it. You arent adding debt, so you never hit the debt ceiling, but you keep getting more money.
How much would issuing super premium Treasuries cost?
For the 30-year bond, the 20 [basis point] premium combined with a duration around 13.5 years equates to cost of 2.7% of proceeds, say Schumacher and Rjavinski. The average monthly budget deficit for fiscal 2014 appears to be around $60 billion. If Treasury decided to fund it entirely with super premium 30-year bonds, the monthly cost would be about $1.6 billion. Using 10-years instead of 30-years would reduce the cost to roughly $0.8 billion.
The program would not be free, but a price of $1-1.5 billion per month seems like a compelling bargain compared to a U.S. default.
Tomorrow, President Obama will be nominating uber-dove Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve Chair. I wonder if she and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew have discussed this idea?
Your debt service costs would go up dramatically as a percentage of the budget. That means your credit rating would go down.
There’s no free lunch.
We need to bring back American manufacturing.
We need to balance our budget, and run a surplus.
We need to bring back American LEADERSHIP.
1) Although technically it might be a legal way to get around the debt limit. It would certainly violate the spirit of the debt limit.
2) Paying that much above market interest could send markets a signal that we think inflation is going to be huge and justify such an interest rate.
3) Most economists would probably state that because the interest rate is so far above market, that part of the interest actually represents principle and thus a proper accounting for debt would require recognition of more debt than the face value. The IRS certainly wouldn't let business or an individual overstate the interest on a debt that way.
Yellen wouldn't have a dog in that hunt as Fed Chief. The FED doesn't control the treasury and the Treasury doesn't need Yellen to issue a monstrosity like that.
We need to quit screwing around. We need to spend less than we take in by a large margin to pay off what we owe. We can eliminate whole Departments and Agencies and the public would not even notice if the MSM Administration propaganda whores didn’t announce it. Have you heard anything adverse on TV about the absence of the Dept of Education, EPA, Agriculture, HHS, etc. other than contrived or overblown wailings. The 13% of the government that is non-essential is absolutely non-essential. After this is over I think the National Part Service should be completely shuttered. All National Parks should be turned over to the states where they reside and fund the states with a set grant to run them or just turn them over to the states.
since she’s ok with inflation as long as unemployment goes down... i expect interest rates to start to move up. when that happens, it will start the ball rolling and hyperinflation will be right around the corner.
time to lock in those 30 yr fixed notes at very low rates. in a few years, you’ll be able to pay them off with one week’s wages.
this ought to get interest.
*runs out to get a 55 gal. drum of popcorn*
i must be missing something, is the debt issued defined as the par value of the bonds, even if they put a ridiculous coupon and they sell for far above par?
the debt issued should be the amount the bond sells for, as that is the present value of the bond, as well as the cash received
Wasn’t she married to the former Soviet Prime Minister?