Skip to comments.How much weather is being caused by climate change? Maybe 1 part in 1,000.
Posted on 02/17/2014 1:31:17 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
In another silly pseudo-science rambling, the Presidents science advisor, John Holdren, has recently stated, Weather practically everywhere is being caused by climate change.
Drought in California. Record snows in the East. Its tempting for many to blame it all on our use of fossil fuels.
What Causes Weather?
Lets start with the basics. Weather is caused by energy imbalances, primarily (1) between the solar heated surface of the Earth and the atmosphere above it, and (2) between different geographic regions (e.g. the tropics vs. high latitudes; the warm oceans versus cold continents in winter).
These energy imbalances have associated temperature differences, which in turn cause atmospheric circulation systems which form clouds, precipitation, and high and low pressure systems.
How much energy is involved? On a global basis the average rate of solar energy absorbed by the Earth is estimated to be about 240 Watts per sq. meter. In order for the climate system to stay at the same average temperature year after year, the Earth has to lose exactly the same amount of energy (240 W m-2) to outer space, in the form of infrared energy.
Its all about the energy and especially about imbalances in energy, which causes weather as the ocean and atmosphere seek to reduce those imbalances. On a local basis, those imbalances can be tens or even hundreds of watts per sq. meter.
So, How Much of Weather Could be Caused by Manmade Climate Change?
Our best estimate of how much the climate system has been perturbed from energy balance comes from the slow warming of the oceans, which since the 1950s equates to a 1 part in 1,000 energy imbalance (say, if 240 W m-2 of solar energy has been absorbed on average, 239.75 W m-2 has been lost to space the slight ~0.25 W m-2 imbalance leads to slow warming).
Now, how exactly can a 1 part in 1,000 energy imbalance lead Holdren to state, Weather practically everywhere is being caused by climate change? Well, all I can think of is that his statement is not based in science.
Maybe that imbalance in recent years is somewhat more say 2 parts in 1,000 (about a 0.5 W m-2 imbalance). But even that depends upon whether you believe in the measurements of tiny, multi-decadal oceanic warming trends of tenths or hundredths of a degree (depending on depth).
And its far from clear that even that is entirely our fault.
Now, how that tiny imbalance gets translated into a change in weather is, admittedly, not well understood. But, ultimately, weather is still related to energy imbalances, and mankinds role in changing those rates of energy flow is miniscule.
You might say, But what about global warming causing a warmer Gulf Stream, which then clashes with the cold air masses and makes bigger East Coast snowstorms? The trouble with that argument is that global warming warms those winter air masses more than it warms the oceans, reducing the temperature contrast. So, if the opposite is happening this winter, then its not due to global warming.
The idea that any of the weather we are seeing is in any significant way due to humanitys greenhouse gas emissions verges on irrationality.
How much? Something we don’t know, because weather hasn’t been recorded for long enough.
If hysteria over so-called manmade global warming was justifiable, the left would be in full-fledged denial of it because thats how they roll.
Back before we really understood the complexity of Gaia we would throw virgins into volcanoes. Now we must throw money at Algore, Washington and the UN.
We are so enlightened we drive smart cars.
I can’t take it much longer. Please just enact the carbon tax and let the fools and monkeys in the press pools and politics move on the the next big taxable crisis.
A tax on water.
A tax on oxygen.
A pox on our house.
Wear a scarf, put on sun lotion.
Weather practically everywhere is being caused by climate change. So let me get this straight - no climate change equals no weather? To put it in Bugs Bunny speak “What a maroon”.
And where it has been measured, what is the measurement error of a mercury thermometer?
What did a half degree matter to even a conscientious observer 50 years ago?
Ever notice how the effect of the oceans on climate is not considered in global warming? That's because there are no historical records for comparison purposes and also because they have no idea of how the oceans affect our climate.
Oceans cover 71% of the earth and they are not a meaningful factor in the GW models. All the global warmers care about is the magical mystery gas, CO2.
the drought in California is being caused by...
ILLEGAL ALIENS using up all our water!
The 20 million illegal aliens in this country use the equivalent of Lake Tahoe every 5 years.
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a ball of fire that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the suns planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?
The climate has been constantly changing since God set it spinning. It will continue to do so no matter what we do.
“How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?”
Throw money at it?
Think how many virgins are being saved, though! Better throwing money at non-existent problems than sacrificing virgins.
LOL thanks for that hahaaaaaaaaaaaa!