Posted on 02/19/2014 10:29:04 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Though the media consistently mocks Congressman Steve Stockman’s bizarre behavior and his ridiculously inept campaign for US Senator, a new Human Events-Gravis Marketing poll suggests that Stockman may pose a legitimate threat to John Cornyn in the Republican primary. The poll conducted February 10 to February 12th, shows Cornyn leading 43-28 percent. While this may appear to be a comfortable margin, it puts Cornyn well below the 50 percent threshold he would require to avoid a two person runoff in May.
In addition, Cornyn has reason to worry because a poll taken two months ago, conducted by a different polling firm, had Cornyn up by a lopsided 50-6 margin over Stockman. The trend seems to indicate that the race is tightening rapidly and that John Cornyn would be unwise to assume that he is a lock for the Republican nomination. Primaries are low turnout events, and the Tea Party in Texas is a force to be reckoned with, as they so aptly demonstrated in 2012, when Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz defeated Greg Abbott in the GOP Senate primary.
Stockman has raised hardly any money, and his campaign is a joke. Nobody in the Beltway takes his chances seriously. Nevertheless, this recent poll demonstrates that Texas GOP primary voters are not sold on sending John Cornyn back to Washington for another six years. Further compounding Cornyn’s challenge is his vote to allow a vote on a clean resolution to raise the debt ceiling. While sound policy, it was not what Republican primary voters in Texas were looking for. That vote took place after the poll was conducted so it is possible that his lead has shrunk even more in the past week. In the GOP civil war between the extremist wing and the pragmatic wing, Cornyn cast a vote with the pragmatists. In Texas, aligning with Mitch McConnell instead of Ted Cruz is bad election year politics for a Republican.
In an eight candidate race, there is little doubt that incumbent Senator John Cornyn will receive at least a plurality of votes. However, if he fails to clear 50 percent, he could be forced into a runoff head to head with Stockman. While Cornyn would still be regarded as the favorite, a runoff would allow GOP voters dissatisfied with Cornyn’s leadership, or lack thereof, to coalesce around Tea Party firebrand Stockman and send a message to the establishment wing of the Republican Party. In a Republican Party runoff between Tea Party crazy and the GOP establishment in Texas, it might be a loser’s wager to bet against crazy coming out on top. If John Cornyn is not breaking a sweat he should be, because Stockman is slowly but surely pulling within striking distance.
Below is some data on the turnout.
2014 Texas Primary: 1st Day Early Voting Totals for Harris County [breakdown by party]
Stockman strikes me as a good guy.
I think Stovall is perhaps better.
That is the idea. Force Cornyn into a runoff and beat him with a Tea Party candidate.
And here’s primary vote split by key county for 2012 Senate race when Dewhurst was the RINO favorite:
2012 Dewhurst Vote % in Senate Primary By Select Large Counties:
Denton 31%
Collin 31%
Dallas 33%
Tarrant 34%
Montgomery 38%
Bexar 41%
Travis 41%
Williamson 43%
Fort Bend 44%
Harris 46%
Brazoria 46%
Galveston 47%
Lubbock 48%
State Average 45%
Remaining vote = Anyone But Dewhurst
http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/gop-us-senate-results-map-primary-2012/
Between them they’ll keep Cornyn under 50%.
No bias there.
Stockman must scare the %$^@# out of state-controlled media.
Pretty stupid.
BTTT!
Cornyn is the main threat to Cornyn. This rapid, compressed 8 week campaign is a referendum on Cornyn, period. If the base is pissed-off enough, he’s gone. What may save him is the lack of a real opponent. Some voters need to vote FOR someone, not just AGAINST the incumbent.Best case, they force a run-off..if they don’t, they’ll hold him to just above 50%, and watch the effect that has on Miss, Tenn, SC, and KY..
What do you bet when Cornyn loses, the GOPe doesn’t support the guy who beats him? When that happens, we had all better pay attention.
Your opinion.
I thought it to be pretty clever.
Does he demand to be treated as "queen" ?
Does he believe American astronauts landed on Mars?
Does he believe that stationing Marines on Guam will "cause the island to tip over" ?
Does he believe that American soldiers raped and terrorized Iraqi civilians?
Does he believe that Americans need to be saved from "job lock" ?
Fixed.
I love it when they give you the judgement right there in the title. No need to even read the article.
“That is the idea. Force Cornyn into a runoff and beat him with a Tea Party candidate.”
Oh, by all means, nominate a ‘crazy’ candidate, who can’t raise money, and who runs an incompetent campaign. What a brilliant plan to win back the Senate.
“What do you bet when Cornyn loses, the GOPe doesn’t support the guy who beats him?”
It won’t be the first time. The GOPe has just become a wing of the dimoKKKRAT party. We will just have to do all we can to overcome it.
I really hate to see this election end. Amnesty will be shoved down the throats of the American people as soon as the last vote is counted.
I just pulled the trigger for Stockman at lunch, feeling good about runoff chances.
You mean like the Alaska Senate race when the GOPe rallied behind the primary loser, Mur-COW-ski?
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