Posted on 11/04/2016 11:47:00 AM PDT by TheRef
Listen to my analysis of today's projection | ||
Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/4/16COMMENTS | This projection resulted from analysis of ninety-nine polls in eleven battleground states from the last two weeks. |
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I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes
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Florida | Clinton 45.1, Trump 45.6 |
Prediction: Trump 49.3, Clinton 45.8, Johnson 3.9, Stein 1.0 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 |
Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +2.0 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.5 Late breaking - Trump +3.5 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11-2 | 900LV | Clinton 47, Trump 47 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 630LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 2900LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Gravis | 10/31 | 1200RV | Clinton 49, Trump 46 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/27-10/31 | 1150LV | Clinton 45, Trump 49 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 1286LV | Clinton 37, Trump 44 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 990LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 408LV | Clinton 48, Trump 47 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 45 | ||
*NYT/Sienna College | 10/25-10/27 | 820LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*NBC/Marist College | 10/25-10/26 | 780LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*PPP | 10/25-10/26 | 740LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
Dixie Strategies | 10/25-10/26 | 700LV | Clinton 42, Trump 46 | ||
*Bloomberg | 10/21-10/24 | 810LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Florida Atlantic Univ | 10/21-10/23 | 500LV | Clinton 46, Trump 43 | ||
CBS/YouGov | 10/21-10/22 | 1040LV | Clinton 43, Trump 46 | ||
Ohio | Clinton 43.9, Trump 46.1 |
Prediction: Trump 50.4, Clinton 46.1, Johnson 2.6, Stein 0.9 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 |
Polls Only - Trump +2.2 Sample bias - Trump +3.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.5 Late breaking - Trump +4.3 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 1730LV | Clinton 41, Trump 46 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11/2 | 550LV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 590LV | Clinton 41, Trump 46 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 980LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1187LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 340LV | Clinton 50, Trump 47 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 800LV | Clinton 45, Trump 45 | ||
Trafalger Group | 10/24-10/26 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
North Carolina | Clinton 45.6, Trump 45.6 |
Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.6, Johnson 3.0, Stein 1.9 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11/2 | 350LV | Clinton 47, Trump 49 |
Polls Only - TIED Sample bias - Trump +1.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +1.9
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*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 49, Trump 44 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 600LV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
Trafalgar Group | 10/27-11/1 | 1150LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
WRAL/Survey USA | 10/28-10/31 | 660LV | Clinton 44, Trump 51 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 730LV | Clinton 34, Trump 41 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1180LV | Clinton 45, Trump 47 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 350LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 650LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Elon Univ | 10/23-10/27 | 710LV | Clinton 42, Trump 41 | ||
*Marist College | 10/25-10/26 | 780LV | Clinton 47, Trump 41 | ||
Gravis | 10/25-10/26 | 1270RV | Clinton 49, Trump 47 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/20-10/23 | 400LV | Clinton 47, Trump 46 | ||
Wisconsin | Clinton 47.0, Trump 42.0 |
Prediction: Clinton 48.1, Trump 47.9, Johnson 2.1, Stein 1.9 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 1270LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 |
Polls Only - Clinton +5.0 Sample bias - Clinton +3.3 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +1.3 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/21-11/2 | 650LV | Clinton 47, Trump 39 | ||
*Marquette University | 10/26-10/31 | 1260LV | Clinton 46, Trump 40 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1170LV | Clinton 46, Trump 42 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 370LV | Clinton 50,.Trump 46 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/27-10/28 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 42 | ||
*Let America Work | 10/18-10/20 | 600LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | ||
Iowa | Clinton 42.0, Trump 45.2 |
Prediction: Trump 51.9, Clinton 46.2, Johnson 0.9, Stein, 1.0 |
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*The Gazette | 11/1-11/2 | 1080LV | Clinton 41, Trump 44 |
Polls Only - Trump +3.2 Sample bias - Trump +5.2 Shy Voter bias - Trump +5.5 Late breaking - Trump +5.7 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 1230LV | Clinton 37, Trump 47 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/20-11/2 | 390LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 330LV | Clinton 48, Trump 48 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/20-10/26 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 44 | ||
*Des Moines Register | 10/3-10/6 | 642LV | Clinton 39, Trump 43 | ||
Nevada | Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.1 |
Prediction: 49.9, Clinton 47.4, Johnson 2.0, Stein 0.7 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 |
Polls Only - Trump +0.7 Sample bias - Trump +2.2 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3 Late breaking - Trump +2.5 |
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*Survey Monkey | 10/27-11/2 | 940LV | Clinton 43, Trump 44 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 790LV | Clinton 43, Trump 49 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 790LV | Clinton 44, Trump 48 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 310LV | Clinton 48, Trump 46 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/26-10/27 | 550LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
Gravis | 10/25 | 880RV | Clinton 46, Trump 46 | ||
*Marist | 10/20-10/24 | 710LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 | ||
Arizona | Clinton 42.9, Trump 45.9 |
Prediction: Trump 51.5, Clinton 45.3, Johnson 2.2, Stein 1.0 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 1460LV | Clinton 43, Trump 43 |
Polls Only - Trump +3.0 Adjusted - Trump +4.5 Shy Voter bias - Trump +4.9 Late breaking - Trump +6.2 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/21-11/2 | 580LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
NBC/Marist | 10/30-11/1 | 720LV | Clinton 40, Trump 45 | ||
CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 770LV | Clinton 44, Trump 49 | ||
*Saguaro Strategoes | 10/29-10/31 | 2230LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 700LV | Clinton 43, Trump 47 | ||
*Data Orbital | 10/29-10/30 | 550LV | Clinton 41, Trump 45 | ||
UPI/CVoter | 10/23-10/29 | 370LV | Clinton 43, Trump 51 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 990LV | Clinton 42, Trump 44 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/21-10/24 | 400LV | Clinton 45, Trump 46 | ||
Colorado | Clinton 42.8, Trump 40.6 |
Prediction: Trump 47.0, Clinton 46.3, Johnson 5.1, Stein 1.6 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 1630LV | Clinton 44, Trump 40 |
Polls Only - Clinton +2.0 Sample bias - Clinton +0.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2 Late breaking - Trump +0.7 |
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*Univ of Denver | 10/29-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 39 | ||
*Emerson College | 10/28-10/31 | 750LV | Clinton 44, Trump 41 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 950LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*CBS/YouGov | 10/26-10/28 | 1000LV | Clinton 42, Trump 39 | ||
Pennsylvania | Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.0 |
Prediction: Clinton 48.2, Trump 48.0, Johnson 2.9, Stein 0.9 |
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*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 46, Trump 43 |
Polls Only - Clinton +2.9 Sample bias - Clinton +1.1 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.6 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/27-11/2 | 2180LV | Clinton 47, Trump 42 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11/2 | 500.LV | Clinton 48, Trump 45 | ||
*Susquehanna Polling | 10/31-11/1 | 680LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
*Monmouth | 10/29-11/1 | 400LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*CNN/OpRes | 10/27-11/1 | 800LV | Clinton 48, Trump 44 | ||
*Quinnipiac | 10/27-11/1 | 610LV | Clinton 48, Trump 43 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 1030LV | Clinton 37, Trump 39 | ||
Remington Research | 10/30 | 1250LV | Clinton 45, Trump 43 | ||
Gravis | 10/25-10/30 | 3220RV | Clinton 47, Trump 44 | ||
New Hampshire | Clinton 43.1, Trump 42.5 |
Prediction: Trump 48.5, Clinton 46.0, Johnson 4.1, Stein 1.4 |
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*Boston Globe/Suffolk | 10/31-11/2 | 500LV | Clinton 42, Trump 42 |
Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +1.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.8 Late breaking - Trump +2.5 |
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ARG | 10/31-11/2 | 600LV | Clinton 43, Trump 48 | ||
*Alliance/ESA | 10/31-11/2 | 530LV | Clinton 43, Trump 42 | ||
*UMASS Lowell | 10/28-11/2 | 700LV | Cl.inton 44, Trump 44 | ||
Reuters/Ipsos | 10/28-10/2 | 310LV | Clinton 45, Trump 40 | ||
*WBUR/MassInc | 10/29-11/1` | 500LV | Clinton 39, Trump 40 | ||
*Univ. of New Hampshire | 10/26-10/30 | 620LV | Clinton 46, Trump 39 | ||
Inside Sources | 10/26-10/28 | 410LV | Clinton 43, Trump 45 | ||
Michigan | Clinton 42.8, Trump 41.0 |
Prediction: Trump 47.9, Clinton 47.1, Johnson 3.8, Stein 1.2 |
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*SurveyMonkey | 10/28-11/3 | 2360LV | Clinton 44, Trump 43 |
Polls Only - Clinton +1.8 Sample bias - Clinton +0.3 Shy Voter bias - Trump +0.2 Late breaking - Trump +0.7 |
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Reuters/Ipsos | 10/27-11/2 | 350LV | Clinton 44, Trump 42 | ||
Google Consumer Surveys | 10/25-10/31 | 680LV | Clinton 38, Trump 35 | ||
*Strategic National | 10/25-10/31 | 500LV | Clinton 45, Trump 44 | ||
*The point of poll averages should be to determine the closest approximation to the actual race going on. Other poll average websites include polls from many weeks, or even months before. That can be okay, but only if the race hasn't shifted. Once a race shifts, only the most recent polls should be averaged.
Michigan? Really???
Wow that would be a massive shock but Hill did lose it to Sanders.
i have him taking PENCElvania and wisconsin...
and a close race in maryland...
JMHO...
looking forward to the Trumping of Hillary
The only one that I’d be super cautious with is Michigan, but I think that still leaves Trump at 279.
I think Trump is going to do better, but I’ll take it!
Nicely done!
I wouldn’t rule Wisconsin out just yet. If we can overcome a few of our really blue counties, and rural Wisconsinites get out and vote (by their yard/road signage, they ARE motivated to do so!) we just might flip it for Trump.
And Conservatives in the blue counties do NOT ‘advertise’ who they are voting for. The Libtards have and WILL damage your car, home and property. I learned that the hard way during the Bush/Cheney elections.
I’m in the, ‘Never Say Never’ Camp. I think people truly have had ENOUGH of the Uniparty. :)
MD a close race ?
Hope your right on that one .
Minnesota is my surprise pick for Trump.
Wisconsin too is more likely than Michigan IMO
Just look at the polling. It’s based on the polling, not wishful thinking. http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/11/04/michael-moore-cant-stop-spewing-truth-analysis-michigan-election-blowing-minds-408393
Would love to see Wisconsin. Five points is a lot to make up and the NeverTrumpers there are zealous about it.
polls, polls, polls. It’s not based on anything else. She is way below her safety zone of 47, where I put it. Plust there’s Michael Moore shouting from the rooftops, rooftops that are about to break through, because well, it’s Michael Moore. http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/11/04/michael-moore-cant-stop-spewing-truth-analysis-michigan-election-blowing-minds-408393
Maryland? Did you mean Michigan?
Florida has got me concerned. The early vote numbers are great and way ahead of 2012, but the last few polls have shown movement towards Clinton, that is if they are not screwing with us.
NC will go for trump by more than 2. All the polls have AA turnout at 22-23%. On track for 19%
Let me log in my projection based on a general observation of developments on the news channels.
This is a base projection--Trump's electoral vote total can only go up from here.
I believe that Trump will win Pennsylvania. I am holding out hope for Wisconsin because there seems to movement there
Well, there IS that, LOL! A lot of WI Conservatives are really annoyed with Paul Ryan, that’s for sure. And I’m not too crazy about Governor Walker these days.
Granted, he HAS gotten back down to the job of ‘Governing’ (finally!) and I’ll always be grateful to him for the BEAT DOWN he gave the Socialist Unionistas in WI over Act 10, but his running for President so soon made me feel like Wisconsin was just a stepping stone, you know?
Why can’t we have someone really, REALLY good win, Govern and STAY long enough to totally clean house?
I mean, is that TOO much to ask of a politician? *SMIRK*
like 1980... when corruption and economy sucks... marylanders step up...
yes, the government employs many marylanders... but everyone else sees the imbalance...
baltimore residents respect trump over hillary.
Amen to Conservatives in Blue counties.
I live in Dane County and don’t really tell anyone I don’t know who I affiliate with. I want to stay alive. The left here is nuts!
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