Posted on 05/18/2020 7:05:02 PM PDT by wrrock
With some states claiming testing is short supply, and hospitals attributing COVID-19 deaths through different methodologies, many analysts are looking to the blunter measure of total deaths. We compared total death from all states for the entire months of March & April (May data is still incomplete).
By comparing total death for March & April of this year with those from the same period in past years, a rough measure of the pandemic’s impact emerges. The data from this analysis support the idea that Red states (Conservative ideology) are faring better than Blue states (Liberal ideology). COVID-19 numbers are not for competition. We report these numbers so public policy experts can take note of the differences between states when they plan for future pandemics.
Surprisingly, there are states for which their total deaths year-over-year have decreased. The dramatic increase in deaths year-over-year is mostly attributed to the following regions: New York City (independently measured), New Jersey, New York (excluding New York City), Massachusetts, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, and Lousiana. New York City is seeing an increase of 20,874 total deaths year-over-year, which is a dramatic 224% increase.
(Excerpt) Read more at toptradeguru.com ...
Looks like a good analysis. Well done!
Actually most of the gainers and the reductions, either way, are in a range of 0% to 10% and a few reductions are greater than more than a 10% reduction.
But the real outliers in my opinion are Minnesota, DC, Massachusetts, NY, NJ and New York City, which far exceeded the others, percentage wise in either direction.
When you compare the totals from all the states, the number of total deaths for 2020 is not greater than the total deaths for 2019 plus the number of reported Wuhan Virus deaths. The 2020 total is less than one would expect with all the 2020 “additional” Wuhan Virus deaths. Therefor, clearly and for reasons that could be looked into, many kinds of other deaths for 2019 must have fewer of them reported for 2020.
What about heart attacks, liver failures and other chronic things as cause of deaths, but not reported as cause of death just because the patient (or the body) tested positive for the Wuhan Virus, whether suffering due it or not at the time of death. But, even that being the case in some instances, there are not enough additional 2020 deaths, if we are to assume the Wuhan Virus deaths are all “additional” deaths that would not have otherwise occurred, statistically.
Maybe there is also just far too much inconsistency in reporting deaths.
I assume you meant Michigan, not Minnesota?
I don’t see a graph.
Yes, my bad.
Fewer auto accidents due to vastly reduced miles driven per person probably contributes a good bit. A quick check of the last three years reveals about 3,000 deaths per month from car accidents. Cut that in half and you get 3,000 fewer car deaths over two months. Flu deaths vary a lot from year to year, but that could easily be a couple thousand more difference. Unintentional injury normally takes 170,000 lives a year in the US. With people stuck at home, that may have dropped a bit as well.
I don’t think we’ll have good data about exact causes of death for a year or two just because of how the CDC and others collect and review all the stats. But it makes sense that if you lock everyone in a padded cell for a time, fewer will die from “preventable” deaths.
Not surprised to see that my state, NM, has fewer deaths than last spring and also not surprised that now she’s talking about not opening up the rest of the state until early in June.
Also, no surprise that, that’s what you get with a dim governor.
Niel Ferguson actually has a HISTORY of sky high death estimates.
His projections led to millions of British livestock killed due to hoof and mouth disease projections. And it turned out inspectors were spreading it through unsterilized shoes.
He predicted up to fifty thousand dead from mad cow disease.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/jan/09/research.highereducation
He predicted up to 200 million dead from bird flu. Note that’s worse than the Wuhan virus and they still didn’t lock everything down.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
The states with the highest increase in year-over-year deaths also have the highest population densities, the largest mass transit systems, and the largest number of people over the age of 65.
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