Survey: Young Germans Prefer China Over The U.S.

Germans enjoy a relatively easy work life, but their frugality, policy of conciliation between organized labor and business, and high rate of employment help make for high national total factor productivity and steady economic growth. Or, to put it colloquially, Germany is hardworking in comparison to almost all its neighbors.

Preparing against the worst makes sense, but with limited resources and a multitude of threats, which ones should have priority? Germany is no longer well-prepared to defend against external threats. Unlike, say, in the 1980s, Germany's military today is not fully organized, trained, and equipped for conventional combat. Instead, it is prepped to be an internal security force against the growing threat of Muslim terrorism.

That threat is real and growing. A few days ago, Germany reversed policy and raided and shut down Hezbollah's affiliates in Germany. In response, Iran bellowed threats and denunciations. Meanwhile, Turkey is pursuing neo-Ottoman ambitions and has the capacity to menace Germany's security.

As for natural gas, Israel is developing vast gas reserves offshore, with Europe via Greece a preferred market. With a choice of Russian or Israel as a gas supplier, it seems that Germany fears Russia less than it hates Jews.

Germany may well expect to shelter from Russian aggression behind American strength and Polish resolve. Yet both countries will impose costs on Germany for its weakness. In this life, free rides are rarely free for long, whether for teen girls or for nations that are improvident about their security.

Rockingham: "Germans enjoy a relatively easy work life, but their frugality, policy of conciliation between organized labor and business, and high rate of employment help make for high national total factor productivity and steady economic growth.
Or, to put it colloquially, Germany is hardworking in comparison to almost all its neighbors."

Agreed, and that is as I remember it from 50 years ago.

Rockingham: "Preparing against the worst makes sense, but with limited resources and a multitude of threats, which ones should have priority?
Germany is no longer well-prepared to defend against external threats.
Unlike, say, in the 1980s, Germany's military today is not fully organized, trained, and equipped for conventional combat.
Instead, it is prepped to be an internal security force against the growing threat of Muslim terrorism."

If I interpret your words to mean they are organized to fight wars such as we and they are already fighting in places like Afghanistan, that would not necessarily mean for them a less capable military, any more than it does for us.
The War on Terror requires highly mobile, highly capable & lethal ground forces, maximum body & armored vehicle protection, super-smart intelligence gathering all backed up by the most beautiful of war-birds, like the A-10.
Sure, WOT armies might be a little light on tanks & heavy artillery, but, if I understand correctly, Germans have in reserve among the best (if not the best) tanks & artillery in the world, just in case.

Now, suppose you say, "no, no, we're only talking about riot control police, SWAT teams & hostage negotiators," well, that's fine, I trained for that too, 50 years ago, never really needed.
If such problems can be handled by jailing or deporting foreigners, all the better, but the Armed Forces themselves need to be ready for the next higher levels of violence.

Rockingham: "That threat is real and growing. A few days ago, Germany reversed policy and raided and shut down Hezbollah's affiliates in Germany.
In response, Iran bellowed threats and denunciations. "

As I said, Germans (unlike Americans) are not going to commit national suicide in the name of "diversity".
When push comes to shove, they will shove right back.

I do think Germans were over-eager to follow President Obama into friendly relations with Iran, and it may disappoint (& cost) them to learn that with Iran there's no such thing as truly "friendly".

Rockingham: "Meanwhile, Turkey is pursuing neo-Ottoman ambitions and has the capacity to menace Germany's security."

Germans & Turks do have a long & friendly history, so I doubt if either is eager to see that relationship destroyed.
Are Turks suddenly no longer concerned about Russia?
Have they rejected previously friendly relations with Israel?
Are they making life difficult for Americans & NATO?
Have they fallen in love with Iran?
In short, have they gone nuts on us?
Somehow I don't think so, and I do think a sane Turkey is a stabilizing influence among its neighbors.
Bottom line: Germany should not have to deal with Turkey alone, that's what allies are for and common purposes, common goals should help the world deal with whatever it is that's bugging the Turks.

Rockingham: "As for natural gas, Israel is developing vast gas reserves offshore, with Europe via Greece a preferred market.
With a choice of Russian or Israel as a gas supplier, it seems that Germany fears Russia less than it hates Jews."

Or just maybe, being logical people, Germans reason that having 2-1/2 natural gas suppliers is better than having just one (the "half" would be potential North American LNG).
In a pinch, Israeli gas piped to, say, Greece, could be redistributed via many pipelines throughout Europe.

Rockingham: "Germany may well expect to shelter from Russian aggression behind American strength and Polish resolve.
Yet both countries will impose costs on Germany for its weakness.
In this life, free rides are rarely free for long, whether for teen girls or for nations that are improvident about their security."

Totally agree.
President Trump wants Germans to spend more on their own national defense, and contribute more to NATO hotspots, several of which come quickly to mind.
And, at some point, President Trump may also want to address trade imbalances with Germany, though several others (notably China) have higher priority.

My guess is that when the German government talks to a US Ambassador like Rick Grinnell, they explain to Grinnell that Germany does a lot of things "behind the scenes", so to speak, to keep the world safe & prosperous.
Whether that is entirely "enough" -- well, such matters are to be settled according to, ahem, the Art of the Deal. ;-)

Germany has dropped conscription and cut its military spending. Their military is now in the midst of a major restructuring toward a smaller, more flexible, and nimble force that focuses on internal security and international stability operations, not warfighting.

The German Army's weapon and equipment are also in flux. Many of their Leopard tanks were sold off, while updates are needed for those that remain. A lack of ongoing training and inadequate spares casts into doubt the readiness of Germany's remaining active tank force.

By some measures, Poland now has a larger ready tank force than Germany. A few years ago, a Rand study found that the German army would struggle to deploy and support even a single armored brigade in defense of NATO member Baltic states.

The supposed friendship between Germany and Turkey now includes open threats by Erdogan to send more waves of Muslims their way if payments to Turkey are not kept up. In private life that is called criminal extortion.

Plausibly, the development of Israel's offshore natural gas fields as an alternative to Russian gas could do much for peace in the region. Production rigs and pipelines make tempting targets, but the smart remedy for that vulnerability would combine Israel's formidable defense capabilities with payments to Muslim neighbors for security assistance. Meanwhile, Greece could prosper as the regional transit hub, making repayment of their German loans plausible. Eventually, even the Palestinians may wise up.

Unlike the nations of Europe, America is based on a national creed that has extraordinary appeal, while the openness of American life inclines immigrants toward assimilation. In contrast, Europe offers cradle to the grave welfare and relatively closed national identities.

In any event, after several generations, Europe's Muslim populace continues to resist assimilation as they anticipate the impending accrual of numbers sufficient to demand new Islamic privileges and then supremacy and sharia law. Repeatedly, seemingly tractable, well-vetted Muslim police and security analysts have abetted or participated in terrorism. This does not bode well for Europe's future.

Call it the suicide of Europe or natural death, but the Europe of a generation from now is unlikely to still be the transnational welfare state paradise that its leading figures fancy it to be. France, Italy, Spain, and Germany are all likely to be focused on wrenching internal security challenges, economic decline, and brutal fiscal issues.

Some things will remain the same. Russian oligarchs will still enjoy the run of Europe, with private security and the choice of the best city venues and country estates. And Britain, the US, and Poland will still be looked to for external security against thuggishness and bad manners from Russia, Iran, China, and other powers.

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