https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1675587843958140935
Reported earlier, however above is a better map.
What munitions were used?
What's RU air defense doing?
Posted on 07/02/2023 5:19:16 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
“The invasion of Ukraine has had a “corrosive effect” on Russian society and President Vladimir Putin’s regime, creating an “opportunity” for the US, said William Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
The top US spy made rare public comments on Saturday, delivering a lecture at the Ditchley Foundation in Chipping Norton, northwest of London.
“Disaffection with the war will continue to gnaw away at the Russian leadership, beneath the steady diet of state propaganda and practiced repression,” Burns said.
For US intelligence that’s created “a once-in-a-generation opportunity,” he said, adding “we’re not letting it go to waste.” “
What I am getting to round a boutly is if we are never ever going to offer the hi tech stuff you listed for whatever secret reasons, why are we not mass manufacturing heavy artillery shells and pieces tanks, etc in a race to the moon type urgent fashion? That is if we are not lying when we say we are giving the Ukes all they need to win. If we are lying then both the Ukes and us are f*cked long term.
What IS really going on?.
“CIA director, on secret trip to Ukraine, hears plan for war’s endgame”
“During meetings in Kyiv, William Burns was told of Ukraine’s ambitious goal to retake territory and push Moscow into talks by the end of the year”
“During a secret visit to Ukraine by CIA Director William J. Burns earlier this month, Ukrainian officials revealed an ambitious strategy to retake Russian-occupied territory and open cease-fire negotiations with Moscow by the end of the year, according to officials familiar with the visit.”
“why are we not mass manufacturing heavy artillery shells”
I believe US artillery production has increased from 14,000 shells per month to 24,000 per month since the war started - with a goal of 85,000 per month (by 2028).
Its a complicated process.
“Is it possible or reasonable for the USA to out-supply the Ukes with needed materiel enough to prevail”
In my view, yes.
The bottom line is that it is not just the USA supporting the Ukraine, but a coalition of Countries (including all of NATO, except Hungary) with a combined GDP about 50 times that of Russia, before the sanctions (2021). Russia is consuming significantly more Military materiel than they are able to produce, and they are past the halfway point for running down their fleets of ground combat equipment.
My suspicion is that the level of support is throttled by a few factors.
- Wanting to manage the conflict below the nuclear threshold, and avoid drawing NATO troops into the fight.
- The traditional dance of NATO partners trying to stick the USA or other members with more of the bill.
- A Strategic desire to achieve an end state, where the old Soviet stockpiles are gone, and Russia is significantly de-militarized (Rope-a-dope them along, until their Military is bled dry, and their budget cannot afford rapid rebuild).
Western politics is notoriously fickle, giving hope to Putin that support will weaken if he guts it out. But the Russians continue to provide orc world level atrocities and war crimes, that keep the rest of the world horrified at the prospect of Russia’s continued aggression, and willing to keep paying the bills. The energy shock of last Winter alone cost Europe about half a trillion dollars - far more than the level of Military support needed to polish off the Russian Army.
The Soviet Union looked ten feet tall before it imploded, and Russia is just a fraction of what the Soviet Union plus Warsaw Pact was. By the end of this year, the financial condition of Russia, and the level of its remaining Military materiel, is on track to become more of a crisis level.
They could become like North Korea to drag it out longer, they might revolt domestically, or they might be sufficiently incentivized to negotiate/withdraw. But Russia is not on a path to sustain this level of conflict through next year, if they even get through this one.
I agree on complexity.
Given that we are refusing or dragging feet on more complicated weapons we could crash a program to make the 85000 a month now instead of 2028. They will forever be behind in artillery with what is being and projected to be supplied. I would think that would be cheaper than the hi tech stuff we are denying and slow walkinh.
Russia ain’t no Serbia
putin ain’t no milosovech
diversity - coexist
is a marxist plot
to take down Judeo - Christianity
plo Israel is their
crowning glory
wake up world
we’re in the ussa now
“why are we not mass manufacturing heavy artillery shells and pieces tanks, etc. in a race to the moon type urgent fashion?”
Stockpiles are mathematically designed to sustain operations until new production can ramp up.
Historically, the third year of a war is when production really takes off.
NATO (including the USA) and the EU have formally activated planned programs to ramp up production of key munitions and systems.
The Military has to calculate and staff what will be needed and how to optimally acquire it, legislatures have to approve the funds and contracts usually need to be competed, before manufacturers even start ramping up. We are already well down that road for Artillery shells in the USA and Europe, as well as HIMARS and other assorted munitions. (Russia is ramping up too, but is challenged for manufacturing capacity, and due to sanctions/supply chain problems).
Bottom Line: Those responsible for managing the inventory of Artillery shells (Defense Logistics Agency) are not freaking out over consumption rates vs. the planned and funded ramp up of new production. They have the data. There is some benefit to rotate the stocks, and fire up the older stuff.
The more sophisticated munitions generally have a longer production lead time, and generally smaller stockages, so it is likely that there is greater risk with some of those, but funding and production are going up across the board, even beyond the USA and NATO (like Japan, Korea and Australia).
“we could crash a program to make the 85000 a month now”
It is true that the relatively low tech nature of Artillery shells is more amenable to just throwing money at the problem, to accelerate production.
But if there is a cheaper way to skin the cat, that would be money lost, that might be better spent elsewhere. Those kind of tradeoff analyses and what if drills are what keep the Iron Majors in the Pentagon burning the midnight oil.
I think the bottom line is that it is expensive to dramatically expand production in the short term, and it is a rare opportunity to significantly rotate and refresh Artillery shell stocks in inventories among ourselves and our Allies, that otherwise sit for decades in storage.
I doubt that the Intelligence Community assesses that this level of usage will persist in the long term. I think that Russia is already winding down from the peak intensity that they could muster with their conventional Military. I also anticipate that their future Military decline will not be slow and steady, but they will face some more severe jolts and adjustments this year and next (if they are even still fighting next year).
OK, since when has genocide been a Judeo-Christian concept? Because this is what Russia is attempting to do in Ukraine - to destroy the Ukrainian nation as an entity different from the Russian nation. Putin repeatedly said that the Ukrainian nation didn’t exist.
The Russian ruble is weakening. 89 to the dollar today.
The ruble’s slide accelerated in June, and accelerated even a bit more over the last week. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB
This seems (to me) to be driven by erosion in Russian economic/financial fundamentals, rather than some temporary shock. There is probably some factor that I am not aware of, but oil prices have been stable from May through June.
The ruble has weakened even somewhat more against the Chinese Yuan or Indian rupee since the beginning of the year, and all three of these currencies (USD, CNY, INR) show the same pattern of accelerated strengthening against the ruble in June.
ukeies are just orks
patsys in marxist cultural war
with the right partnering
to do away with Jews - Christians
Israel will be the last
remaining target
isn’t that what the Bible predicted
Jesus’s 2nd coming
Seriously, are you saying that genocide is acceptable if a particular nation isn’t to your (or someone else’s) liking?
“putin ain’t no milosovech“
Both were indicted war criminals.
Thanks for the comparison.
Ukraine partnered with the marxists
they chose their own death - suicide
fantasy football
bet the farm
you take it
too seriously
go watch
Paul Newman - sting
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1675587843958140935
Reported earlier, however above is a better map.
What munitions were used?
What's RU air defense doing?
RuZZians are dying by the thousands every month.
Celebrate. Sing and Dance!!!
spare - save the world
Ukraine has volunteered
to demonstrate
Armageddon
extinct themselves
What you are saying is absolutely ridiculous. If it were true, then the Americans would deserve to be killed too.
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