Posted on 08/21/2003 7:48:05 PM PDT by JohnnyZ
Many political observers in the Triad think that the entrance of Ed Broyhill into the congressional race hurts state Sen. Virginia Foxx the most. She was counting on her base of support outside of Forysth County, and particularly in the northwestern mountain counties, to at least get her into a runoff with one of the many Forysth candidates. But Broyhill has obvious connections, family and personal, in many of those same counties.
One of those competing for the nomination,Nathan Tabor of Kernersville, reportedly fired a previous set of consultants because they had proposed a campaign strategy that he thought was too expensive and ill-suited to the race. Now he's retained the services of Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition and the Georgia Republican Party.
Kieran Shanahan, Raleigh City Council Member, appears ready to challenge Attorney General Roy Cooper. The Republican is quietly talking with friends about the campaign and is being encouraged, especially after Cooper’s criticism over the TV ads and his possible legal problems (reported last week in this column).
(Excerpt) Read more at ncspin.com ...
The 5th district Broyhill development mentioned above has potentially very significant ramifications for Vernon Robinson's candidacy, which many of my pingees are interested in. We are now guaranteed a runoff (no candidate with 40%) but how much of a base Foxx and Broyhill share is beyond my knowledge of the candidates and district. Both are threats to reach the runoff, but if they split support they could ensure Vernon makes the runoff. Prognostication is pretty much guesswork at this point.
About the statewide races, we're starting to put together a good slate of candidates:
Governor: Ballantine or Cobey, most likely
Lt Guv: Bill Boyd, conservative former legislator, cancer survivor and head (?) of the state Christian Coalition but Harold Brubaker (RINO ringleader) ally plus probably state rep Gregg Thompson.
Treasurer: Greensboro lawyer and business owner Ed Meyer, bidding to become the first (?) statewide elected Hispanic (though he's not pushing that angle) -- he's a pro-life Catholic Reagan conservative, and he'd probably be the first statewide elected one of those too!
Auditor: Les Merritt is running again after losing by 0.5% in 2000
Agriculture: Steve Troxler is running again after losing by a similar tiny margin in 2000
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Michael Barrick is running again after losing by a small margin to an incumbent -- the seat is now open.
Attorney General: See article above
Secretary of State: no takers so far?
Labor: incumbent Republican Cherie Berry
Insurance: no takers so far
Barrick, Merritt, and Troxler are all strong candidates who were hurt by (Vinroot) a weak top (Vinroot) of the ticket (Vinroot) in 2000, as the Dems almost swept the statewide races.
2000 Election
Ward (D) 53
Barrick (R) 47
Meg Scott Phipps (D) 51 (now on her way to prison)
Troxler (R) 49
Campbell (D) 51
Merritt (R) 49
Leo Daughtry was his closest competitor; I don't know how he would have fared statewide. Maybe it's a little unfair to blame it all on Vinroot, but the state GOP ticket got wiped out while Bush was winning the state by 13 points, and Vinroot trailed most of the GOP ticket. GOP turnout could have been much better, among other things. Point is, Merritt and Troxler would have won in slightly more favorable circumstances.
We can only hope. Actually Virginia didn't have much of a chance anyway. She can't really raise any money and once her true beliefs are made public, she'll have a hard time even getting invites on the rubber-chicken circuit. There is a whole contingent in Stokes and Surry counties ready to make sure everyone knows Virginia's true stripes.
I would guess the 5th district race would now come down to Snyder, Robinson, and Broyhill. Snyder is going to have a tough time beating back reminders of his "carpetbagger" campaing tactics against Dole when it is made widely known that he doesn't even live in the district. I like him, but the rumblings on the street are that he has a tough row to hoe.
I know almost nothing about Broyhill. Can anyone fill me in?
Broyhill is running solely on the name. He is, of course, the son of former Congressman and Senator Jim Broyhill, and has $$. This isn't the same district his dad represented, which was in the adjacent (old) 10th to the west. Besides his dad, he claims to have Jesse Helms serving as an honorary co-chair, and seems to bridge the gap between the old establishment Mountain Republicans embodied by his family name, and the Helms Republicans. He wouldn't be such a bad selection on that, but we need Vernon Robinson in the House. Broyhill ought to return to the 10th and wait for Cass Ballenger's retirement (and at 77, I can't see him remaining much longer -- he succeeded Jim Broyhill when he was appointed to the Senate), I think that's a better bet.
That's the really strange thing. Ideologically I think he's fairly conservative. But he's been the force behind the Richard Morgan "let's give control of the NC House to the Democrats and redistrict conservative Republicans out of office" sleazemobile. I talked with Bill Boyd a bit and he seems to be an honest and decent guy, but he's very close to Brubaker and I'm afraid he'll do whatever HB says as LT Gov.
Surely we'll capture a few, most notably the Scott-Phipps office, this time around.
Hopefully, but I wouldn't count on it at this point. Brit Cobb was appointed after Meg Scott Phipps resigned, promising to fix the dept and not to run for reelection. He's won a lot of praise for -- well, mostly for not being a corrupt ***** like MSP -- and now he's going to run for reelection.
You said that right. Vernon is my pick.
I don't know.
Hello JohnnyZ, Hope you are doing well today.
I'm not really, but that's beside the point. How are you?
Ralph Reed has been with me since I first started. I then hired two other consultants who wanted to spend $500,000 in four months -- over 25% in "services and fees." Funniest of all -- NO grassroots plan -- so, we parted ways.
I read about that and suspected the fault was not with the Soybean Man. Who the heck told you to hire them???
Since the media has been reticent to update the race for those of us outside the district, perhaps you would like to share what progress you have made in terms of grassroots organization, or travel around the district, since it seems unlikely that people will show up at the voting booth and say "Gee, I've been voting for Vernon, or Foxx, or Broyhills, for years, I think I'll change and vote for Tabor (or Helvey)!" unless they meet you and really like what they see.
Oh, and some folks probably care less about political handicapping and more about issues, so I would suggest: immigration, tobacco buyout, trade, Patriot Act, foreign policy re UN/Iraq/terrorism, specifics on abortion (your stand, what legislation you think can get passed immediately). Throw up your own thread, or get someone to put one up, next time you have an interesting press release on one of those issues.
When I see "third period" I think ellipses . . .
Seriesly (sic) though, if you want anyone besides me to read what you're saying you need your own, new thread. I'll add some detail to your mention on my website (http://www.angelfire.com/mo/zdawg/2004/house.html) but I don't know how many folks from the district read it, shall we say! Right now I just call you "Soybean" :) Hopefully I'll put up an NC page with more space for detail.
I'd like to see Vernon win so he can stick it to all those race-baiting Democrats. But I'll also root for any candidate who'll hire me when he's elected! And I'm only half kidding about that.
If you want to get exposure here, I recommend starting a thread "I'm running for Congress (North Carolina 5th CD)" in the News/Activism section. My guess is that only 10-20 people nationwide saw this since you posted. If you start a thread, you'll see a lot more exposure, including from NC'ers. I also recommend flying your state flag in your profile and posting on the NC state board there. That will get you the most exposure from this site.
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