Posted on 10/28/2004 12:04:25 AM PDT by JingoJim
The continual manipulation of the Bush contract on Tradesports and IEM has a real risk of effecting this election. The seller either has significant knowledge of unknown information or is manipulating the contract for EFFECT. MANY commentators and pundits check these markets regularly and it effect their judgements and confidence. This is not a time to wobble. Freepers need to make this known WIDELY. The seller has sold 100's of thousands of contracts to break and suppress the market. If you do not understand the effect it has just look at Soros' manipulation of the pound. He made himself right. This is nothing to take lightly. Anyone with BC04 contracts needs to inform them ASAP.
Oh, please, now you're just making crap up. Nothing that happens on Tradesports is affecting the election in any way. Pundits and correspondents don't look at sudden swings in the numbers and suddenly start gnashing their teeth.
Tradesports is a small-time gambling operation and that's it.
Believe what you wish. I wish you were right. You are not.
"MANY commentators and pundits check these markets regularly"
Yeah, right.
Why would anyone give a rats ass what a bunch of gamblers thing? If affects no one. No thinking person even pays attention to polls let alone quasi-legal betting.
When was the last time you heard any body say "well better odds before I cast my vote"?
If you're taking a bath in your betting, maybe its your sign to come clean.
I cannot believe that people who watch these things enough to put money in them will not know they are being manipulated. Ray Fair just predicted a huge win for GW. I will take his word over a gambling venue since he's a world renowned economist.
You're probably right. This dude's probably lost some serious coin, and to console himself he wants to link it to some vast political conspiracy.
I other the other hand have cleaned up
whoever the idiot is who is trying to diss Bush in these markets aint doing a very good job..I doubt its Soros
Tradesports is right where Ray Fair said that Bush will win - with 56% of the vote.
If it's manipulation, then so what? 99% of the people don't know what the hell it is...and the 1% that do won't do a think to the election count. Maybe driving Bush's numbers down short term to buy back...regardless, pretty much the die is cast in this election IMHO.
My two cents...in "Catch-22" there is a section where the Allied troops on Malta are looking at an update map of the Allied front in Italy. When the front moves past a certain line the men are out of the range of the German air force. When the movement of the front stalls, the tension becomes unbearable. This prompts one guy to sneak out in the middle of the night to move the line on the map to relieve the tension. I doubt the values of Tradesports/IEM affect the election as much as simply reducing the accuracy of the markets as a predictive mechanism.
And I doubt that for long - if the markets are heavily traded given the structure of the markets it's simply a good means of throwing your money away to buy and sell goods well outside of market value not to mention futile as to affecting long term market value. But if "manipulators" want to throw their money away, let them. The contracts will be redeemed in less than a week. Get as much as you can out of them.
Another recent user with a "The Sky is Falling!" post.
I wish you DUmb@sses would just go in the road and play with sharp objects.
These betting web sites are interesting but they are coincidental indicators. The sales of Halloween masks are also coincidental indicators. Whichever candidate's mask is the best seller has been the winner in the past. But running out & buying masks will not change the outcome.
is there a recent article on Fair ?
Well, if you're one of those guys with cash in that market (e.g. game), and you truly believe that Soros will manipulate the market to sell Bush short, what would your logical course of action be?
But of course, dump your shares, probably Bush shares, and this guys "speculation" becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.
And, if you're this guy, and he's stuck with a lot of Kerry shares because he was "certain" his guy Kerry couldn't lose, what would you do if you could get people to dump Bushie shares at a loss? Probably buy them on the cheap to shore up your overbought Kerry position.
I suspect a troll.
SFS
He's been a FReeper since Sept 2004.
He may be a troll, but the fact is that the Iowa and the Sports markets have dropped dramatically recently. Hopefully somebody is just making money, throwing good money after bad, or something. Still . . .?
Personally, I use the 7-11 coffee cup indicator.
actually, many very serious financial types DO look at those markets regularly....but we're clever enough to see when they're being manipulated, and discount the result appropriately.
STOP IT! Splash cold water on your face and stop getting hysterical. Virtually no one cares about these markets.
This is a gambling site.
This is ridiculous.
Thaaaaaannnnnkkkk yew!!!!
Who started this thread - Bill Bennett?
BCO4 needs to be informed?
(BC04 would probably suggest a chill pill.)
Jim...if you are confident that the chances of Bush reelection are over 50%, place bids below 50.0. If someone dumps large amounts at a low ask, you can pick up their shares. Just recently, the PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 contract has traced all the way back to 10 (10% chance of Bush win). The market quickly recovered and the trader that picked up those contracts realized a 500% return (if sold) when the contract price traced back to 50. (50% chance of Bush win).
TradeSports may or may not have been subject to attempted manipulation. However, the market is liquid enough to absorb any inefficient pricing quickly.
So, I don't think you should be too concerned about these matters. I will say that I disagree with the posters who have totally dismissed the political futures markets in their replies to you.
Sorry.. but you are a fool if you think Tradesports or IEM has any affect on anything.
The reason is obvious: TO MAKE MONEY. With a market as small as IEM or Tradesports, an enterprising trader with a fat wallet can do a lot.
Like a Jedi mind trick--it only affects the weak-minded.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.