59-41 WOMEN TO MEN RATION - DRUDGE

DRUDGE REPORT

[over3Owithabrain]

explains a lot

[over3Owithabrain]

LOL - I wish ! Mod, feel free to delete this thread - I see there is one with better typing already up!

[1Old Pro]

Drudge is posting this GARBAGE to get people to his site.

EXIT POLLS ARE WORTHLESS IN CLOSE ELECTIONS.

[BuckeyeGOP]

hopefully the next sample will be 70% male white business owners...

...f*cking ridiculous.

[Eepsy]

60% women and Kerry only got a one point lead out of it? There is hope for my sex yet!

[Crawdad]

25 or 624

[TheGunny]

Thats because most men will go after work!

[SoCal Pubbie]

Suddenly bad news turns to good!

[4CJ]

Mod, feel free to delete this thread

Why? This IS FreeRepublic!

[The South Texan]

If we are that close base on that ratio, then we will be fine considering we were tied or kerry was slighty ahead with 45% 47% ratio in some polls with women.

Chill pills for everyone!

[kesg]

another dumb post w/ no information or sourcing

Drudge is reporting at his website that this exit poll is based on 59-41 women. Thinking out loud, if the rumored four point lead for Kerry in Ohio, or rumored one point lead in Florida (or even four points, makes no difference) is based on this sample, he is so screwed.

[CSI007]

OMG! This pisses me off to no end.

That's it for me. No more exit polling today. Fool me once...

[finnman69]

FYI in 2000, the breakdown by sex was 52% women 48% men

[kesg]

What is the ratio typically at the end of the day?

Slightly more than half women -- 52-48 or 51-49.

[Round 9]

Bad, bad news for Kerry.

[Calvarys_Soldier]

Actually, it makes some sense then. First of all, only about 1/3 of Americans actually vote before they go to work. The reason is obvious...who really wants to get up early in the morning? I never do!

Secondly, it makes a lot of sense that early exit polls consist more of women than men. Think about it. What major group of Americans would have the ability to vote during the day? Stay-at-home Moms, perhaps? Polls have consistently shown Kerry beating Bush among women, while Bush is solidly beating Kerry among men.

All this means is that an exit poll done in the middle of the afternoon is as useful as the old kickstand on a Sherman tank and screen door on a submarine.

[ThinkDifferent]

Thinking out loud, if the rumored four point lead for Kerry in Ohio, or rumored one point lead in Florida (or even four points, makes no difference) is based on this sample, he is so screwed.

*Assuming* that the women in the exit polls are representative of women in general, which may not be the case. Stay-at-home mothers may be overrepresented in this sample, and I'd imagine they tend Republican. Many single women who tend Democratic are working, and may be voting later (of course, this goes for working married women as well).

[Larry381]

This is BAD news for Kerry-if this ratio of men to women is correct. Democrats only win when they get 55-60% of the women's vote. With that ratio he should be way ahead. If women are splitting evenly Bush is a shoo-in(assuming Bush holds the male vote which 90% of pre-election polls have him doing.

[GraniteStateConservative]

That's what I'm saying. Just having 60% women voting doesn't excuse the poor showing. The women who are voting are likely GOP women-- stay-at-home moms and homeschool moms and such.

[MHT]

I saw working moms and dads at the polls this morning before 8 AM. A couple had kids with them to show them the process, etc. I know that my husband was in line before the polls opened and there was a line out into the parking lot, full of working people. I only saw four elderly people there at that time of day. I was #336 at 8 AM. My son just voted at 1:30 PM and was #956. We usually have about 400-max during an off-year election. That means that we will have a turnout of 1500-2000 people, at least double our usual number--and we're in an upper-middle-class strongly Republican precinct.

BTW, no one has ever polled me in advance of voting or as I exited.

[kesg]

*Assuming* that the women in the exit polls are representative of women in general, which may not be the case. Stay-at-home mothers may be overrepresented in this sample, and I'd imagine they tend Republican. Many single women who tend Democratic are working, and may be voting later (of course, this goes for working married women as well).

When I voted -- which was on the first day of early voting -- everyone else in line was either a retiree or a stay at home mom. These exit polls reflect people who voted in the morning, mainly people on their way to work.

If it helps, the last set of major polls showed Kerry leading among women voters, but by only about half of the margin that Gore won four years ago. Even so, if you take this fact, and then skew the sample so that 60% consists of people who support Kerry -- and even THEN he isn't ahead by much (and actually behind in other places) -- trust me, he's in big trouble. Either that, or the sample is too small to be meaningful. The second possibility is more likely.

Bottom line: ignore exit polls. They are meaningless until the end of the day.