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To: kesg
Thinking out loud, if the rumored four point lead for Kerry in Ohio, or rumored one point lead in Florida (or even four points, makes no difference) is based on this sample, he is so screwed.

*Assuming* that the women in the exit polls are representative of women in general, which may not be the case. Stay-at-home mothers may be overrepresented in this sample, and I'd imagine they tend Republican. Many single women who tend Democratic are working, and may be voting later (of course, this goes for working married women as well).

36 posted on 11/02/2004 12:23:22 PM PST by ThinkDifferent (A plan is not a litany of complaints)
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To: ThinkDifferent
I saw working moms and dads at the polls this morning before 8 AM. A couple had kids with them to show them the process, etc. I know that my husband was in line before the polls opened and there was a line out into the parking lot, full of working people. I only saw four elderly people there at that time of day. I was #336 at 8 AM. My son just voted at 1:30 PM and was #956. We usually have about 400-max during an off-year election. That means that we will have a turnout of 1500-2000 people, at least double our usual number--and we're in an upper-middle-class strongly Republican precinct.

BTW, no one has ever polled me in advance of voting or as I exited.

39 posted on 11/02/2004 12:33:51 PM PST by MHT
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To: ThinkDifferent
*Assuming* that the women in the exit polls are representative of women in general, which may not be the case. Stay-at-home mothers may be overrepresented in this sample, and I'd imagine they tend Republican. Many single women who tend Democratic are working, and may be voting later (of course, this goes for working married women as well).

When I voted -- which was on the first day of early voting -- everyone else in line was either a retiree or a stay at home mom. These exit polls reflect people who voted in the morning, mainly people on their way to work.

If it helps, the last set of major polls showed Kerry leading among women voters, but by only about half of the margin that Gore won four years ago. Even so, if you take this fact, and then skew the sample so that 60% consists of people who support Kerry -- and even THEN he isn't ahead by much (and actually behind in other places) -- trust me, he's in big trouble. Either that, or the sample is too small to be meaningful. The second possibility is more likely.

Bottom line: ignore exit polls. They are meaningless until the end of the day.

40 posted on 11/02/2004 12:38:35 PM PST by kesg
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