No, I am reducing it the correct complexity. M3 is grows exponentially. The biggest glitch in the data is from 1990-1992 where the money supply was tightened which lead to Clinton being elected.
Posted on 08/31/2005 10:34:39 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
Lol, the fact that the slope is decreasing is a dead giveaway that you do not have exponential growth.
BWA HWA HWA HWA !!!
This is exponentially worse than 9/11.
Yes, real world data does that. But as long as our money supply continues to grow at a 4% or whatever, that decreasing slope will take a swing upward. That is the power of exponential growth. Really, you have no clue at what you speak.
It's pretty easy to understand why fission is a simple exponential process or yeast growth is exponential.
But I don't seem a similiar case for either GDP or money supply or even human population.
No *you* are reducing a very complex phenomenon to a very simple exponential curve.
The data is far more interesting than your model of the data (which has absolutely no predictive value).
If hydrocarbon prices stay high everything that uses them will be more expensive. Don't forget that trains, ships and trucks all burn hydrocarbon fules and that chemical plants use hydrocarbons (mostly NG) as a feedstock.
No, I am reducing it the correct complexity. M3 is grows exponentially. The biggest glitch in the data is from 1990-1992 where the money supply was tightened which lead to Clinton being elected.
Thanks for providing the A and K constants.
The problem is, in order to match the curve 20 years from now, you will need an entirely diffent curve.
For example, try matching today's data using only a 1960-1980 data set.
The stuff that happening from 1986 to 1985 is interesting and not exponential. The only reason you can lay and exp function on top of the current data is that you already know the answer.
should read 1986-1995
The upshot from all of this is that the country will build more refineries (more work for pipefitters, iron workers, laborers, carpenters, cement masons etc.) and that will stimulate the down line industries (valve makers, sheetmetal workers, fab shops) and support industries (auto industries, food service industries, etc. etc.)
For a long time, our problem has not been lack of crude, it's been lack of finished product. The designer blends that the different cities require has been the bottleneck. I say that if a city wants a designer blend, then they should take the standard product from the refineries and do the blending in their own plants in each state.
In the short term, you are correct. In the long term, the economy will expand because of the hurricane.
There is optimism and there is utter blindness to reality; Bernanke, Kudlow and their ilk are too often guilty of the latter.
Since the economy is already cooking, there is no camel's back to break. Willie Green doesn't count as an economist!
Not just Home Depot and Lowes. All the Contractors that will get overtime pay, all the cement, steel and wood products manufacturers, all the electrical cable and switchgear manufacturer's, etc, etc. Then all those people will take their overtime $$ and buy new cars, boats, vacations, etc. You'll see.
Actually, you ended up using a money supply growth rate of around 8%. Gee, isn't that a bit higher than our average GDP growth rate?
but there is a best fit exponential curve that would map the data very well
There is also a Fourier series of sine waves that will fit it a hell of alot better or a polynomial that will at least capture the roll over in the 1990's.
And this tells us what exactly?
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