The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia 2006 Update
Posted on 09/01/2006 6:36:27 PM PDT by Jeff Head
I have been keeping a major web site up regarding the growth of the Chinese NAvy for the last four years. This is the 2006 Update.
Throughout 2005 and 2006 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued its unprecedented modernization and buildup, working on and procuring twelve seperate classes of major combatants. Increasing numbers of new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them are being built. The PLAN has now settled on several classes of vessels to be built in serial production after several years of testing and evaluation of initial production runs of two each of those vessels.
By way of comparison, since 2000, the Chinese Navy has added an additional 72 new, major combatants...a net growth of 72 major combatants. In that same time the US Navy has built 39 major new combatants, but also decommissioned 45 major combatants, most of them with ten or more years service life remaining in them according to their original construction plans, for a net of -8 major combatants.
Now, while the overall numbers, technology, and strategies are still signifcantly in favor of the US Navy, the trend is disconcerting because future construction plans call for projecting similar trends.
Education is one key to avoding...
...and then of course acting on that knowledge). I believe that Red China represents a threat and trouble in the next 5-10 years greater than the tyrants we fought in World War II.
It interests me, but only in a vague, why are we granting MFN, and sitting still while the Chinese are committing economic warfare against us kinda way. I suppose they need a deep sea Navy, to defend the coastland against the Tibetan fleet.
Because many of our Congressmen, and members of the white house and cabinet, and other elected and appointed officials have deep financial interests in China.
They are several years away, but IMHO we dare not underestimate them and continue our own trend of downsizing.
Thanks for the Ping
Thanks Jeff. I am not the only one concerned I see.
Nope, you are not...I've been talking and writing about it since the late 90s. I believe the Red Chinese are very carefully and willfully pulling the strings behind the scenes in the WOT with Iran, and with N. Korea...while they rapidly build up their own forces in terms of quantity and quality. They have closed a 30 year gap in the last 6 or 7 years in many areas.
You are weclome my friend. I hope the info is of interest. Please point people to that overall site if they have any interest or concern in the Red Chinese buildup.
Thank you Richard Nixon
IMO, our "fearful leaders" figure that by the time China is able to move, the world will have tied its hands securely with the greed only capitalism brings. They don't believe that there is ever a war between trading partners, but me thinks they forget that we traded with the Japanese, Italians and Germans before WW II.
...and Ford...and Carter...and Bush Sr...and Clinton, and a lot of others.
Folks thought they could just talk to Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, and Stalin too...we know how that turned out. History is a harsh school master...and class is in session.
Exactly...they figure that all that money is going to tame the commuists and tyrants, when what it will do is just allow them to consolidate their power, and ultimatly expand. I believe we are seeing an arms buildup greater in magnitude and much more dangerous than what our parents and grendparents witnessed in the 1930s before World War II.
bump for later
Great my friend. Let me know what you think. The site is fairly picture intensive, but it is worth it.
I recommend www.sinodefence.com for freepers if they want to keep abreast of Chicom Defense matters. So far the submarines, destroyers and frigates being built are replacing the older Chinese warships and subs. They still have a long way to go to build a force projection navy. Example, no huge fleet of fleet replenishment ships with Refuelling At Sea (RAS) capabilities, aircraft carriers and nuclear attack subs. They only have a handful of ships with Standard type SAM and electronic arrays that can challenge even the Japanese Navy. The only thing the PLAN can achieve in the next 20 years is a navy capable of inflicting damage on the US fleet in a war to take Taiwan which is 90 miles off their shoreline. If China wants to build a navy to challenge the US with a GDP that is 1/6 the size of the US, she needs to concentrate on a huge nuclear sub force that will disrupt US shipping since we import most of our critical materials from overseas. I would pay very close attention to China's nuclear sub program because the new Chief of Staff of the Chinese Navy is a nuclear submariner. So far China needs Russian technical assistance to develop their first truly modern nuclear attack sub.
Several points. The chinese are not merely replacing their old units with these newer ones. What we find is that they continue to modernize many of their older units, like the Luda class. They have increased the number of major combatants by 72 vessels over the last five to six years...we have experienced a net loss.
They are putting together a blue water navy with new, modern DDGs, FFGs, and with new nuclear attack submarines. They are developing the vessels that will serve well in a CSG and I believe by 2--9 they will have one, and will probably bein building a couple of their own indigenous carries in that time frame as well.
Actually th PLAN is at sea replenishment capable, aas this picture attests.
...and they are building larger, more capable replishment ships as well. Two Qiandaohu were deliverd in the last couple of years.
I will grant that they are years away from a serious global challenge to the USN on their own...but in the Taiwan Straits they are getting closer and they are apt to bide their time as we continue to downsize and as we continue to get embroiled in many other areas (which we have to do), but which I am also convinced, considering their ties, that the PRC encourages.
Some report prepared for Rummy says that China's fleet buildup is for protecting their petroleum supplies from the U.S.!!! I dunno 'bout that. Self-defense could be used as an excuse to hide aggressive notions.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20050117-115550-1929r.htm
"China is building up military forces and setting up bases along sea lanes from the Middle East to project its power overseas and protect its oil shipments, according to a previously undisclosed internal report prepared for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld...."
Your take on their intentions are spot on IMO. Gonna hafta get ahold of your books one of these days. I appreciate your longevity and the "meat" in your posts.
I believe this is essentially correct. They are doing exactly what the Japanese did in the 1930s, knowing they need the oil and trying to secure the supply, both by sea and by land.
At some point, that need and desire will conflict with us and they know it and are preparing for it. Maybe over Taiwan, maybe over the Spratley's, maybe in conjunction with their relationship with some one like Iran or N. Korea.
I just ask folks if they like the ebook, then to tell other people and also to consider getting the printed book after you have read the ebook and like it.
Precisely! The Russians are working on wearing us down as well, using the proxy of the terrorist groups of the middle east and supporting (with materiel) those groups.
This way our forces get worn out, our supplies expended, and maybe even our government changed to one which will be more amenable to their goals (like the Clintons).
But the Chinese are not sitting still either. They are a very vibrant economy and have a lot of bright minds. As they continue to have more and more money to throw at the issue, the technology race will be just as critical as the arms race itself.
Thank you.
My thoughts as well. They get most of their oil from the Middle East while the US only gets about 17% of its imported oil from the Persian Gulf and that percentage is projected to decrease for the US in the future. Perhaps that is why we are not taking a harder stance against Iran. In 10-15 years, that part of the world may not be that strategically important to us, but it will be to the Chinese. The great irony is that the Chinese will then be facing a nuclear armed Iran, Pakistan & India for control of the region at a time when all 4 nations will be at state of industrialization where they will all need as much oil as they can get their hands on.
Meanwhile, big oil companies like Chevron & Exxon are currently partnering with Indian companies to build huge refineries along the coasts of India. One such project is currently employing over 150,000 people and is projected to take 2 years just to finish the 1st phase! Let China & India fight it out with mad mullahs while we deploy our forces closer to home.
Even without the new weapons, wouldn't JDAM's do a number on surface ships? If we can easily hit small buildings, wouldn't a much larger ship, even if it's moving, make an easy target also? Taiwan could be defended with just a few hundred of those JDAM kits to upgrade their current bombs.
You have a very good point there. That's why I think we can consider beyond that.
Barring a revolution in THIS country it is probably going to happen too.. How?... 30 million(or more) legal and illegal aliens voting are going to make it happen.. whether amnestyied or not..
In addition, guiding JDAM against a moving target would be difficult because it is not radar guided or heat guided...it is GPS guided. In addition, the CEP for the JDAM is something like 13 meters. The Navy is trying to improve that to 3 meters, but that is still against stationary targets.
The HARM (AGM-88), SLAM-ER (AGM-84K), the Penguin (AGM-119B), the Maverick (AGM-65), and the Standard (SM-2) missiles are what we have in inventory to attack ships with...of course in addition to our torpedoes from our submarines. missile
During the late 1940's and through the 1950's Senator and then Vice President Nixon was viewed as a anti-communist champion, fighting the good fight against Red China and then in the early 1970's President Nixon opens the door.
We were told 'they will change their ways' do to western influences.
To this day the communist dictatorship is still in control and growing more alarming thanks to the billions rolling in from the West.
I agree. Their totalitarian form of voernment has not changed, they've just adapted their economic model to avoid what the Soviets experienced...and what they were already experiencing at the time.
Now, with their more fascists model for economics, they represent a threat, IMHO, an order of magnitude greater than Nazi Germany of the 1930s. When you couple their growing world-wide influence, their growing military, and the radical Islamofascist threat, the situation is very acute.
...and , as you say, we are funding it.
Thanks for the ping
Think about all those COSCO container ships bringing all those Chinese goodies you buy at WAL*MART.
There must be thousands.
How long do you suppose it would take to unload the containers and turn those into transport ships - or even missile platforms?
Don't think for a minute Chinese don't think this way. We had better start taking them seriously.
Soon it will be too late to stop the inevitable, I fear.
It may be already.
You can download the whole thing for free as an adobe ebook at the following site:
You are welcome my friend. I hope and trust all is well with you and yours.
Martial arts. The umbrella being casually stepped along by the man as he walks - step one two three, the umbrella taps to the ground - then again, can also be a weapon at a moment's need.
Tai Chi, is slowly practiced fighting.
I've been to China, spent some time there. Chinese are almost without exception, focused on power, warfare and fighting. They're quite good at it.
All Asia seems militarized, ironically, compared with America. Typically here you can go for months without ever seeing any military vehicles - perhaps driving along the interstate with their lights on. In Asia, military is everywhere.
China is big, strong and military. PLA is everywhere, and society there is very carefully controlled. This poster thinks China is a (lot) like pre-war Germany.
Except they're a lot bigger, and have nukes.
Same attitude of wanting to right perceived historical grievances. Often the word "pride" is used by Chinese to describe their ascending power.
Problem is, in Chinese society there's virtually never a stable relationship between equals. We should not expect China to relate to us, the way we would relate to China if roles were reversed. Chinese "pride" will seem like something quite different, to us.
America, and Americans, tend to react positively to equality, and quite negatively to arrogance. Pride to an American, may lead to friendliness and generosity. Gloating is almost universally frowned upon.
China, and Chinese, are almost the exact opposite. All relationships are vertical. Either you are above, or below, others. If you are below them, you demur and act respectful.
If you are equal - that's just temporary.
If you are above others, you have "face", show off, gloat and pretty much act like a dictator. It's just the way it works. Power is used.
China, as it becomes stronger, will not become more moderate.
Moderation is for the weak. As China strengthens, it will become increasingly arrogant and confrontational.
Until eventually, it will attack.
That's the way it will be. I wish those in our government dealing with China, understood the Chinese.
We've become so PC and think everyone is the same, it may someday so hobble our ability to recognize danger, as to destroy our ability to protect ourselves.
We need to get past PC. Muslims are not like non-Muslims, and Chinese are not like Americans. Pretending we're all the same just makes things worse.
The sooner we are comfortable with those truths, the better for everyone.
We must, IMHO, adopt very soon, an attitude and policy towards the government of the PRC that is similar to what Reagan did to the Soviets in the 80s. We can still avoid the worst, IMHO, if we do so soon. If we do not, then there is is a growing potential for an hellacious war at some point, far worse than World War II in my opinion.
Thanks for the heads up, this certainly bears watching closely.
The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia ping.
You, as well as anyone on this forum, may know if our technological advantage can keep us ahead of the curve. Our lives may depend on it; toe to toe is out of the question.
May God's wisdom be upon our leaders.
Thanks for the update.
Very well stated.
Picture 1937 through half of 1939 and in American stores shelves were overflowing with a multiplicity of goods labeled "Made in Germany" & Made in Japan" (In relation to "Made in [Red] China".
In relation to the late 1930's I am not precisely sure where we are in comparison in 2006, however but the hour is very late. The next major international explosion will either be Iran and or Syria, with their cohorts in the extended Axis of Evil making the problem worse. Then there's Putin, one of the principal heavy arms dealers to the Axis, waiting in the wings like a vulture while the anti-Western proxies continue their wars wars of terror against US and Israel.
It could be an rather expensive heating oil season coming up.
You're welcome.
Somthing along the lines of the Spanish civil war IMHO.
Excellent analogy! That's precisely the era.
Iran's deadline has passed. With each passing day the Iranian Islamic brutes mock and laugh at the inability of a united Western front.
The question is will Washington allow further appeasement & UN foot-draging relating to a swift, enforceable, long over due reciprocity for Tehran's belligerency on the jihadist enemy's drive for offensive nuclear weapons (not to mention Iran's biological weaponry arsenal)?
Previously we went down an elongated "diplomatic" dead end with Saddam, until President Bush had had enough and correctly acted, regardless of France, Russia and other nations refusing to enforce the countless UN referendum's the Iraqi régime repeatedly & brazenly violated, all due to very lucrative interlinked Iraqi oil deals (most of which were paid to the Saddam clan in Euros - not US $$$.
It's time to react to the Iranian Islamic terrorist and economic threats, not repeat the insanity of the UN's Iraqi joke.
We should never have entertained such an organization, and should even now cease our membership in it, all funding for it, and eject its headquarters from our shores. It is an abject and misbegotten drain on each and every American taxpayer and the gains it receives from us are put to ill use against our very interests.
It's time we had American statesmen who will go beyond the much needed slap in the face that President Bush gave them over Iraq, and give them a swift boot in the back side out of our pocket books and off of our soveriegn soil.
(/rant)
Ed Dames said China will become the dominant superpower fairly soon by purely economic means and won't have to fire a shot.
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