Giffords leads Graf solidly in Dist. 8 poll ( AZ Rat Poll,Rat Author)

The Arizona Daily Star ^ | 24 September 2006 | Daniel Scarpinato

[axes_of_weezles]

Poll results District 8, U.S. House

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat: 48.4%

Randy Graf, Republican: 35.7%

David Nolan, Libertarian: 1.4%

Jay Quick, independent: 1.1%

Undecided: 13.4%

Margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Survey of 600 likely voters in Congressional District 8 Sept. 16-19.

Name the single most important issue when deciding whom to vote for:

Border Control/Immigration: 45.8%

War in Iraq: 10.7%

Candidates' experience: 8.5%

Party affiliation/Support for President Bush: 7.4%

Health care: 7.2%

Education: 5.8%

Rate the importance of these issues when deciding whom to vote for:

Important or very important

Immigration: 82.3%

War on terror: 82.2%

War in Iraq: 81.3%

Which party controls Congress: 71.3%

National economy: 69.1%

Health care: 67.8%

Gay marriage: 43.4%

Gender gap

Men Women

Giffords: 38.4% 56.7%

Graf: 46.2% 26.9%

Nation

Giffords leads Graf solidly in Dist. 8 poll

By Daniel Scarpinato

arizona daily star

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 09.24.2006

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Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds a solid lead over Republican Randy Graf in the Congressional District 8 race, according to a poll of likely voters sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4.

The poll, conducted by Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence, also found immigration is, by far, the most compelling issue on voters' minds when choosing a candidate.

Giffords is ahead by 12.7 points. Graf's biggest problem seems to be capturing undecided voters and losing crossover Republican voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, surveyed 600 likely voters in Congressional District 8 Sept. 16-19, just days after the two were named their parties' nominees in the primary election.

According to the poll, with seven weeks to go before the Nov. 7 general election, 48.4 percent of voters favor Giffords, 35.7 percent are in Graf's court and 13.4 percent are undecided.

Libertarian David Nolan and independent Jay Quick each had less than 2 percent.

The poll indicates 67 percent of Republican voters support Graf, compared with 84 percent of Democrats who are sticking with Giffords. What's more, 16 percent of Republicans say they plan to vote for her. And more than 55 percent of independents are supporting Giffords, as opposed to 21 percent going for Graf.

"Arizonans know that we need someone in Washington who can get something done," said Giffords' campaign manager, Rodd McLeod, emphasizing Giffords' "bipartisan" support.

Among Republicans, 15 percent are still undecided. Only 10 percent of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate in the Republican-leaning district currently represented by the retiring Jim Kolbe.

Graf campaign manager R.T. Gregg acknowledged the campaign needs to work on shoring up the Republican base.

"We certainly have our efforts focused on what we need to do to win," he said.

The poll offers a few surprises.

Graf, who has made border security his key issue, trails Giffords among voters who say immigration is important to them in this election.

Giffords also leads in the district's rural areas — Cochise, Pinal and Santa Cruz countries — where Graf has enjoyed popularity among Republicans.

The poll reveals a sharp gender gap. Nearly 57 percent of women support Giffords, with 46 percent of men going for Graf. About 13 percent of both men and women are undecided.

Issues

When asked what the most important issue is in deciding whom to vote for, "border control/immigration" is the run-away leader, with nearly 46 percent saying that's what's most on their minds when it comes to this race.

That's more than four times the next-most frequent response, the war in Iraq, cited by 10.7 percent of voters. Experience was next at 8.5 percent. Health care with 7.2 percent and education with 5.8 percent are at the bottom of the list.

When voters were asked to rate the overall importance of a list of issues, immigration again finished on top with 82.3 percent rating it important or very important, followed by the war on terror with 82.2 percent considering it important or very important and the war in Iraq at 81.3 percent.

Control of Congress, the economy and health care were also rated important or very important by a solid majority of voters. Of the seven issues listed, only gay marriage failed to strike a chord with a majority of voters, at 43.4 percent.

Strategies

Carol Zimmerman, a long-time local Democratic consultant who ran the Star-sponsored poll, said her advice to Graf would be to make the election less about Giffords and more about keeping Democrats from winning control of Congress.

"I'd go right back to my Republican base and say, 'It's all about keeping control of Congress, and Republicans, you have to stay the course.' And I would try to find a way to appeal to them," Zimmerman said.

She also said that although Giffords' numbers are high, she cautions against calling the Democrat "popular," especially among Republican crossover voters.

"I don't know that they're saying, 'Oh, I just love her.' I think they're saying, 'I don't like him,' " Zimmerman said.

McLeod said he's not surprised by Giffords' approval rating on the immigration issue, but Judi White, chairwoman of the Pima County Republican Party, said she still thinks Graf "owns it" despite the poll results.

Zimmerman said that for Giffords, the key is turnout and holding her base, since Demo-crats are outnumbered in District 8 and tend to turn out in smaller numbers.

"Stay the course. Don't make a mistake," Zimmerman said. "It's hers to lose and there's still a lot of time to go, and being complacent would be the worst mistake."

● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 807-7789 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.

9 Comments on this story

[axes_of_weezles]

Older than you junior a**bite.

[zbigreddogz]

I'm sure of that, I previously figured you were young enough to still have all of your marbles.

I was obviously wrong about that. You've obviously lost a few.

[Ben Ficklin]

a**wipe is far more effective than a**bite

[axes_of_weezles]

I guess I'm not up to your low standards of RINOhood, and support of amnesty for lawbreakers.

I know what you will be saying about support of Rudy if he ever gets the nod, and will gladly reference your current conversations here about support of Republican nominees in 2008.

I still wont be as pliable as any of your phony nominees.

Deal with the hand that's been led.

[Ben Ficklin]

Rudy who-dy?

[zbigreddogz]

I don't know where you get these rant ideas, or what Rudy Giuliani has to do with this, but I have never once said that I wouldn't support Graf over his Democratic opponent if I lived in his district.

I've only said that I think he's a poor candidate and that I think he'll lose. I stick by that.

But unlike you, apparently, I'm not a RINO and, with almost no exceptions, I support the nominee of my party.

So feel free to bring up any comments here should Rudy Giuliani get the nomination in '08.

P.S. I am virtually certain that I WILL NOT support Giuliani in the primary, and will vote for him in the general should he be the nominee only grugingly.

[zbigreddogz]

Don't try to make sense of his rants. It's worthless.

I'm pretty sure he's either some bored 14-year-old kid or 87-year-old man who's lost his marbles.

[Ben Ficklin]

He used to be worse.

[zbigreddogz]

Really? Wow, I'd like to see that.

That would make him even worse then Extremely Extreme Extremist.

[Ben Ficklin]

Crotchety old men

[Pelham]

Wow. The weenie-con strikes back with the dreaded Pelosi threat.

[axes_of_weezles]

"I've only said that I think he's a poor candidate and that I think he'll lose. I stick by that. "

You said a bit more than that.

You sayeth, or another poster using your stage personality said:

" The Tancredo people 'say' they are only against illegal immigration, they really don't see a difference between legal and illegal immigrants. When you force them to take a position on many 'legal' forms of immigration, they are almost always against that too. So it isn't really the illegality they object to, it's the immigration part. Sure, they might object more strongly to the illegal immigrant, but it doesn't change the fact that they are still anti-legal-immigrant as well."

" You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?"

"They TRIED to get someone else. They even pushed for him in the primary. Unfortunately, the Tancrediacks won. With only 43% of the vote, mind you."

"You don't pick divisive, one-issue candidates in marginal districts. Graf's already behind by 10% and will probably lose. Kolbe isn't helping, but the anti-immigration extremist need to take a hard look in the mirror for the problem in this race."

"The NRCC was right. You don't nominate one-issue candidates who seem to rival Howard Dean on the need for anger management."

"Pressing the so-called 'Border Security' issue won't save him. It's the fact that he's seen as a one-issue extremist. Which, frankly, he seems to be if his campaign is any indicator. "

"Graf was pretty vicious when he ran against Kolbe in the primary. While I disagree with Kolbe's decision, I think Graf is largely the author of his own problems."

It seems to me you are the one noter, with lack of thought prior to engaging posts. And a one noter who may support conservatives as a last choice.

You seem to have pigeonholed me as a Tancredoite. Shows how little depth of thought you really have and a simpleminded lack of judgement on your part.

This is not California or Washington State. You know little or care to know little of the demographics of this area, and are probably personally involved with Kolbe or someone close to Kolbe. Maybe you dont want to lose your day laborer/slaves/housekeepers.

You Say the NRCC was right to withdraw funds from Graf, but then comment how they are wrong in expecting losing the House and seats in the House in another thread. Kind of hard to believe what you post.

Your posts sound like a Huffman ad. Too bad your guy lost. and Graf will win the general.

[axes_of_weezles]

You are supposed to ping folks you talk about.

Protocol, youknow.

[phillyfanatic]

That is true and a real problem for the Pubs. How Janet got the cred on enforcing the border, taxes et al, I will never understand in Az. Just what do the Dems promise in Az that seems to be carrying the day in more than the guv's race? And does Goldwater have a chance to win?

[zbigreddogz]

And the things you posted contradict what I just said HOW?!?!?!?!

This is not California or Washington State.

Yah, clearly, California is nowhere near the border. :rolls eyes:

You know little or care to know little of the demographics of this area,

AH!!! And finally, we reach the truth. It's not about illegal immigrants, it's not about the rule of law, it's not about national security, if it were just about these things, you'd be open to a sensible plan like the Pence plan. Instead, it's about 'demographics' about the fact that you want less Mexicans in your district because Mexicans are 'bad'.

and are probably personally involved with Kolbe or someone close to Kolbe. Maybe you dont want to lose your day laborer/slaves/housekeepers.

Oh please! I've never met him or even been in his district. And even if I was the biggest Kolbe fan in the world (I'm not and never have been, I disagree with several of his positions, although I appreciate his work on free trade), it wouldn't make anything I say wrong.

You attack me as a person because you are incapable of actually arguing on any of the actual points.

And the 'slave' insult just proves that you are desperate. Only in DU land would an insult like this fly.

You Say the NRCC was right to withdraw funds from Graf, but then comment how they are wrong in expecting losing the House and seats in the House in another thread. Kind of hard to believe what you post.

Certainly, you are not so unlearned or illogical that you are unfamiliar with the concept of a strategic retreat.

You show me a general that never retreats, and I'll show you one who's going to lose the war.

Just because Graf is likely to lose doesn't mean they will lose the house. I fully expect J.D. Haworth to hang on. I expect Heather Wilson to hang on. I expect Clay Shaw to hang on. I think at least 2 of the endangered Conneticuit Reps. will hang on. I think at least two of the endangered Indiana reps will hold on, we will not lose either Navada seat, I don't think we'll lose any seats in New York, I don't think we'll lose more then 1 in Ohio, I don't think we'll lose more then one in Pennsylvania, I think we may topple Chet Edwards, I think Mac Collins may win his comeback race, I think Melissa Bean is going down, etc.

But clearly, you aren't really talking logic here. So go on beliving what you will. Just know how desperate and silly you are making yourself look.

and Graf will win the general.

I honestly hope you are right. It is important that we hang on to the house.

But just so you know, you'll be getting a huge 'I told you so!' should he lose.

[Ben Ficklin]

In spite of what the thread spinners say, Huffman lost the primary, not because of Graf, but because the moderate vote was split between Huffman and Hellon.

In spite of what the thread spinners say, the republican money was not spent to campaign against Graf, but to unite the moderates. The republican party knows that, while Graf's support is somewhat narrow, it is extremely deep and spending money trying to jar loose a Graf supporter would be a waste of money, something the republicans are short of.

[marajade]

Its the woman factor.