Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Tell me all about how you're the best and how great the BCS is.
Now, voters are going to have bend over backwards to distort their ballots to get the matchup that they want.
Can't have Georgia go in. They didn't even win their division!
Can't have Kansas go in. Same thing! But..on the other hand, they only lost one game. But, on the other hand, their schedule sucks!
Well, we've got to put LSU in. They won their conference. Pleazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzeeeee.
Somebody hand me a barf bag while I yak.
LSU deserves the championship berth more than the other teams ahead of them. It’d be different if WVU or Missouri won, but they didn’t.
OSU/LSU in the national title game. OSU wins by 7.
Pick 8 and let’s play-off.
The only undefeated team vs. the team playing the best right now (which isn't surprising now that they're healthy again).
If we wanted to the two best teams to play, it would be USC vs Georgia at this stage of the season.
Warriors - Hawaii to Sugar Bowl!
Who says OSU or LSU “deserve” to go? OSU played nobody but Michigan. So what does that prove? They’d give Appy State a good game?
LSU loses to a 4 loss Arkansas team. Do they really deserve to go? Why not a one loss Kansas team? Why not Oklahoma or USC?
It wouldn’t be different if Missouri or West Virginia won. The point is they weren’t the No. 1 and 2 teams! And we found that out pretty quickly, didn’t we?
Is anybody really entitled to go? Come on now.
The point is how do we know who really is deserving? Shouldn’t we have a playoff and find out in real life, instead of computerized roulette wheel?
I love it. We’ll see how good that vaunted SEC defense is when one of theirs plays against Hawaii. :-)
Hawaii’s main victory was over Boise State. Their schedule makes them suspect.
Brad Edwards is a whiner. We need playoffs as much as the US needs hellery as president.
And I’m afraid my Sooners might’ve lost to your Jayhawks if we’d played this year.
Whoever we do play might as well know we have not done well in post-season games in recent years. However, it’s because I’m the jinx for watching, so I won’t this year - just to give us an even chance, lol.
Having said all that, we ARE good and last night was most gratifying! Boomer Sooner!
There would have to be another season to do that. It will never happen. Do you have a viable plan?
Didn’t they say the same thing about Boise last year?
Gee, I think they beat Oklahoma.
*sniff* yeah
Who doesn’t have a viable plan?
The question is more, will the Big Six conferences ever be forced to give up their money grabbing cartel. They make excuses about classes and it’s not financially viable, but the truth is they don’t want to give up their hold on guaranteed big money, so that they can keep most of the money and the recruits that come with it.
It’s not that complicated, if you just force the Big Six to stay away from their greedy base instincts.
Oklahoma was not that good last year. I wan’t surprised by the result.
I wish we would have had the opportunity to play the Sooners, but I don’t know if we would have done much better than Missouri. It is a game of matchups. Mizzou plays a similar offense to KU, so we would have had to deal with OU’s speed on defense and their punishing O-line on offense.
Well, Georgia may not be that good either. :-)
Yep! Follow the money. I believe you have a great point. A play off type of championship will never happen.
Georgia is better than Hawaii.
Ha, ha, ha. LOL!
We’ll see about that!
Yep. We will. If they play, Hawaii will be destroyed by GA’s speed and physicality. It won’t even be close.
Hey, we weren’t *that* shabby! Just because we lost to the Sips - *it happens sometimes* - and then there was the unmentionable Pac Coast game.
Keep up your SEC arrogance.
It seems USC has crushed every SEC opponent they’ve played the last five years, haven’t they? :-)
We do know how to play footbal on the West Coast.
Here’s the “viable plan”. Use the current BCS system for the greater good - that is to seed teams from 1 to 16. Then, set up a tournament.
You can use the bowl games or not use the bowl games. It should not matter at all.
The lesser bowl games can continue to run and be a reward for the lesser teams.
There is a problem in using any major bowl game as a lead up to a National Championship. I know you know why.
Yes. But where there’s a will, there’s a way. Somehow, I think if Congress got involved or there was a lawsuit on anti-trust violations, they’d figure a way to do it.
However, regardless of whether they use the bowls or not, I don’t care. That is not a righteous excuse.
Unofficially, I’m calling the National Championship Game off, due to the lack of any truly deserving teams.
Alternatively, let’s give 12 teams a share of the championship, including Hawaii.
I would love to see that game. Maybe in the Rose Bowl?!
No,that would be too much to hope for.
But this year, it cries out for at least a four-team Plus One playoff, and they really need it given all the extraordinary parity due to the numerous upsets this season.
I am a WVU fan and I think the BCS is a very bad system. Unfortunatly money rules and the BCS was put in place to protect the Bowl System.
In the game last night WVU sucked!!!! There is no way we deserve a shot at the championship.
In fact ia a post last week I put forth the theory that if Mizzou and WVU won that the BCS would put Ohio State above us on strength of schedule.
Just because we cheer for a certain team that doesn’t mean were cannot think for ourselves.
USC and LSU are probably the two best teams. Ohio State is probably going to get the nod for number 1; I’m guessing Ohio State - LSU for the championship. As for the other matchups, there will be a lot better bowl matchups out there than either USC - Ill or Ga - Hawaii.
Hey. I feel your pain. I wish it was WVU and Mizzou, although for some very big ulterior motives.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it could have been an exciting game, but it would have been a ratings disaster. I was hoping for that, because then the networks would lose a ton of money.
Since that’s all this is about, I thought that would be a great way to make the networks want to have a playoff.
As a Georgia fan, I'd rather see Ga play Ohio State than USC. I'd probably be an easier game.
You may be right about the best teams, but we’ll never find out for sure, because there isn’t a playoff. I’m a big proponent of USC myself, and I think both LSU and Ohio State are real glad they don’t have to face them.
Well, that’s - without a doubt - true!
“The point is how do we know who really is deserving? Shouldn’t we have a playoff and find out in real life, instead of computerized roulette wheel?”
The computerized roulette wheel is as good as real life since if you took the top eight and let them play, and then let them play again, you’d get a different result.
Nonsense. So I guess that applies to March Madness, too?
Unfortunately, the roulette wheel we’re using is rigged. The human voters decide who they want in the big dance, and that’s who goes.
The networks want a playoff, it would make a ton of money. The problem is it would cost the major conferences a ton of money. Any playoff, other than four plus one, would be an NCAA sanctioned event.
I’m old enought to remember the old TV system run by the NCAA. One national appearance per team per year. One Regional appearance every other year. The NCAA took half the tv revenue from the appearances and the bowl games. It was too long and tough a fight to wrest control of TV rights from the NCAA. It took a supreme court challenge (you can thank OU for that even though it cost them a probation).
No, you don’t want a playoff run by the NCAA.
For the second half when my team started to pull away, they talked about nothing that had to do with the game they were supposed to be announcing - only the abortion (pardon my use of the term but it works) called the BCS. Well except for calling the winning QB "ordinary", that is, after lobbying for sainthood for Chase Daniel during the first half. Other than that it was all BCS. They barely put the camera on the game because Musberger and Herbstreit just wouldn't STFU about who's gonna play who and get back to the game.
Any two Division I teams with one loss or fewer and I won't complain. I'm still waiting for someone to make me Emperor for Life like Chavez so I can decree that all the major bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar) will be played on New Year's day and will constitute the first round of an eight-team playoff.
It could very much end up being the OSU vs. OU Bowl Championship. But this wild and crazy college football season has made the BCS look like a BIG JOKE. Bring on the bracket system!
Yes. I do. One that is subject to the anti-trust laws.
What I don’t want is the Big 6 Conferences deciding who goes to the national championship and gets the big payoffs, and who doesn’t.
“Well except for calling the winning QB “ordinary”,...”
They called Bradford ‘ordinary’? May OU be cursed with having ‘ordinary quarterbacks’ for the next 1000 years.
The Big 12 conference was not all that strong this season except for having 3 good teams, OU, MIZZOU, and KU.
Yeah. Herbstreit is a big shill for the BCS. I wonder if he gets a commission.
“What I don’t want is the Big 6 Conferences deciding who goes to the national championship and gets the big payoffs, and who doesn’t.”
What I don’t want is a bunch of midget football programs dictating terms to the Big 6 just like the old days. If that is the cost of a playoff, then I would rather the present system.
Besides I don’t think there is a ‘big six’, it’s a big four, SEC, Big12, Big 10, Pac10. The rest are merely ‘bigger midgets’.
We will find out in about an hour on the Fox BCS Selection show—my guess is LSU vs Ohio State.
I would prefer USC vs Oklahoma but that won’t happen. This is a real mess.
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