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Colorado hurricane forecaster predicts 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2008 (three of them majors)
ap on San Diego Union - Tribune ^ | 12/7/07 | AP

Posted on 12/07/2007 5:12:57 PM PST by NormsRevenge

FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.

Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.

The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” Gray said. “This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two.”

Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.

The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed.

Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic explained the difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and the lead author of the forecast. Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.

The team also predicted nine hurricanes for the 2006 season, when only five developed. Klotzbach said that in seven of the past nine years, the team correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.


TOPICS: Weather
KEYWORDS: 2008; atlantic; forecaster; hurricanes; predicts

1 posted on 12/07/2007 5:12:59 PM PST by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge
I hate to be cliche but...Bush's fault!
2 posted on 12/07/2007 5:14:05 PM PST by the invisib1e hand (hillary clinton is vladimir putin in drag.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Why do they need to predict anything? 7 storms or 70. It only takes one.


3 posted on 12/07/2007 5:15:58 PM PST by CindyDawg
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To: NormsRevenge

That idiot should try forcasting something else, he’s a failure at huricanes.


4 posted on 12/07/2007 5:16:12 PM PST by dalereed
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To: NormsRevenge
First let’s see if he can forecast Monday’s weather in Cleveland.
5 posted on 12/07/2007 5:16:32 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Wanna see how bad it can get? Elect Hillary and find out.)
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To: NormsRevenge

I’m predicting rain in Seattle, sunshine in Miami, and ice in Buffalo. ( I bet I get 100%)


6 posted on 12/07/2007 5:17:37 PM PST by irishtenor (History was written before God said "Let there be light.")
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To: NormsRevenge
Image hosted by Photobucket.com MAKE IT STOP!!!

7 posted on 12/07/2007 5:18:38 PM PST by Chode (American Hedonist)
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To: NormsRevenge

I’d respect him more if he put down a LARGE bet with someone. Follow the money.


8 posted on 12/07/2007 5:19:30 PM PST by Mark (REMEMBER: Mean spirited, angry remarks against my postings won't feed even one hungry child.)
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To: NormsRevenge

“The Weather Guy” on all the TV stations can’t forecast tomorrow’s weather. How can “The Hurricane Guy” predict the number of storms many months out? /sarcasm


9 posted on 12/07/2007 5:20:13 PM PST by Cobra64 (www.BulletBras.net)
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To: NormsRevenge

The problem here, as with virtually all broadly published predictions, is that there is no indication of the probability that it is correct. It would be much more useful if he said something like “30% probability of 3 big hurricanes, 20% probability of 2 hurricanes, 20% probability of 4 hurricanes”, etc.


10 posted on 12/07/2007 5:20:34 PM PST by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: NormsRevenge
Hurricanes next year in the Caribbean during hurricane season. The guy is uncanny!
11 posted on 12/07/2007 5:23:28 PM PST by fhayek
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To: Cobra64
“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” Gray said.

Who needs reality, anyway?

12 posted on 12/07/2007 5:26:12 PM PST by sig226 (New additions to the list of democrat criminals - see my profile)
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To: NormsRevenge

I predict whatever happens in the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane will happen and if you live in a hurricane zone always buy and keep in stock your supplies in advance and keep your insurance(if you find one) up to date and make sure that it covers what you need it to....but you probably already knew that...


13 posted on 12/07/2007 5:28:38 PM PST by yield 2 the right
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To: sig226

Those active “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” cycles last for decades but include several inactive seasons, and 2006 and 2007 were “fairly inactive” only by the standards of the active phase of the multidecadal cycle but unusually severe by the standards of the inactive phase.


14 posted on 12/07/2007 5:29:38 PM PST by dufekin (Name the leader of our enemy: Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, terrorist dictator)
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To: NormsRevenge

A stopped clock is right twice a day. I he and his team keep coming up with numbers, eventually they’ll hit it.


15 posted on 12/07/2007 5:29:53 PM PST by Stevenc131
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To: NormsRevenge

And I predict Christmas will be on the 25th of December!


16 posted on 12/07/2007 5:30:04 PM PST by BurbankKarl
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To: sig226

What you are failing to understand is that Mother Nature got it wrong and Gray was correct all along. Is there any other business where we would be looking (with a straight face) to the same guy for next year that was totally wrong last year? Dick Morris doesn’t count! ;-)


17 posted on 12/07/2007 5:30:53 PM PST by JustaDumbBlonde
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To: NormsRevenge
Image hosted by Photobucket.com Where Da Hurricanes at???
18 posted on 12/07/2007 5:36:34 PM PST by Chode (American Hedonist)
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To: jiggyboy
The problem here, as with virtually all broadly published predictions, is that there is no indication of the probability that it is correct. It would be much more useful if he said something like “30% probability of 3 big hurricanes, 20% probability of 2 hurricanes, 20% probability of 4 hurricanes”, etc.

I say there will be nine named storms, three majors, and one landfall in the U.S. with a 5% chance of error. If I'm wrong, then it is the 5%.

19 posted on 12/07/2007 5:41:08 PM PST by SampleMan (We are a free and industrious people. Socialist nannies do not become us.)
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To: NormsRevenge; NautiNurse; steveegg

bump


20 posted on 12/07/2007 5:46:48 PM PST by SouthTexas (Have a Merry and Blessed Christmas.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Colorado is a great place to predict hurricanes, we get so many of them.


21 posted on 12/07/2007 6:03:07 PM PST by jwh_Denver (No more southern governors for President. PERIOD)
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To: dufekin

Thank you for clarifying that.


22 posted on 12/07/2007 8:03:31 PM PST by sig226 (New additions to the list of democrat criminals - see my profile)
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To: jwh_Denver

It’s done by rich libs in Telluride who figure it out on cocktail napkins.


23 posted on 12/07/2007 8:32:53 PM PST by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since 1991.)
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To: CindyDawg

[Why do they need to predict anything? 7 storms or 70.]

We can’t do anything anyway. I wouldn’t stick my neck out for ridicule in the first place.


24 posted on 12/08/2007 1:19:08 AM PST by dbacks (Taglines for sale or rent.)
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