Skip to comments.Colorado hurricane forecaster predicts 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2008 (three of them majors)
Posted on 12/07/2007 5:12:57 PM PST by NormsRevenge
FORT COLLINS, Colo. Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.
The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.
Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle, Gray said. This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two.
Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.
The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed.
Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic explained the difference, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and the lead author of the forecast. Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.
The team also predicted nine hurricanes for the 2006 season, when only five developed. Klotzbach said that in seven of the past nine years, the team correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.
Why do they need to predict anything? 7 storms or 70. It only takes one.
That idiot should try forcasting something else, he’s a failure at huricanes.
I’m predicting rain in Seattle, sunshine in Miami, and ice in Buffalo. ( I bet I get 100%)
I’d respect him more if he put down a LARGE bet with someone. Follow the money.
“The Weather Guy” on all the TV stations can’t forecast tomorrow’s weather. How can “The Hurricane Guy” predict the number of storms many months out? /sarcasm
The problem here, as with virtually all broadly published predictions, is that there is no indication of the probability that it is correct. It would be much more useful if he said something like “30% probability of 3 big hurricanes, 20% probability of 2 hurricanes, 20% probability of 4 hurricanes”, etc.
Who needs reality, anyway?
I predict whatever happens in the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane will happen and if you live in a hurricane zone always buy and keep in stock your supplies in advance and keep your insurance(if you find one) up to date and make sure that it covers what you need it to....but you probably already knew that...
Those active “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” cycles last for decades but include several inactive seasons, and 2006 and 2007 were “fairly inactive” only by the standards of the active phase of the multidecadal cycle but unusually severe by the standards of the inactive phase.
A stopped clock is right twice a day. I he and his team keep coming up with numbers, eventually they’ll hit it.
And I predict Christmas will be on the 25th of December!
What you are failing to understand is that Mother Nature got it wrong and Gray was correct all along. Is there any other business where we would be looking (with a straight face) to the same guy for next year that was totally wrong last year? Dick Morris doesn’t count! ;-)
I say there will be nine named storms, three majors, and one landfall in the U.S. with a 5% chance of error. If I'm wrong, then it is the 5%.