Posted on 01/02/2008 12:58:40 PM PST by NormsRevenge
Halfway through the rainfall season, much of San Diego County is a bit drier than usual, but that could change by early next week.
A series of storms expected to bring heavy rain to Northern California and much-needed snow to the Sierra should begin to hit the southern end of the state late tomorrow. By Monday, San Diego could be above its usual rainfall total for early January. That hasn't happened this late in the season since 2005.
The storms, which forecasters say could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to the county beaches and 4 to 5 inches in the mountains, will be welcome relief from the drought that has plagued the backcountry for the past two years.
“If it keeps raining, I think we'll be in pretty good shape. I'm hopeful,” said Shane Coles, a retired ranger and part-time volunteer at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park in East County.
Coles said Lake Cuyamaca, which she can see from her home, is “looking pretty good,” though the water level is down slightly. Last year was the fourth-driest on record at the lake.
However, heavy rains could have a downside – mudflows and flash floods in areas burned by the October wildfires. The National Weather Service will likely issue a flood watch today or tomorrow, forecaster Noel Isla said.
Wet weather would be a switch for Lindbergh Field, San Diego's official weather station. Since July, when the rainfall season began, each month has had below-average rainfall. But the season total of 2.19 inches on Jan. 1 was still more than the two previous years. If it rains an inch and half by Monday, this season's rain total would be above average.
Rainfall in the county's inland valleys since July 1 has been about normal.
In Campo, near the Mexican border, the past two months brought nearly average rainfall. Campo is coming off one of its driest years.
“Things are greening up on the hills,” said Arvilla Johnson, who reports weather conditions in town to the weather service. “Last year it was still pretty dry.”
Ramona, which gets an average of 4.41 inches of rain by Jan. 1, had 5.05 inches. Escondido and Oceanside Municipal Airport also had above-average rainfall.
Long-range forecasters had expected the winter to be drier than normal in Southern California and the Southwest because of La Niña conditions in the central Pacific Ocean. When sea-surface temperatures become markedly cooler than normal in a La Niña event, storm patterns usually shift. The Pacific Northwest generally gets abundant rainfall, and the southern tier of states gets shortchanged.
Up to this point in the season, La Niña effects have been fairly normal, said Jan Null, a private forecaster and former National Weather Service meteorologist. Most of California has had below-normal rainfall.
But in a small minority of La Niña years, he said, Southern California ends up wetter than normal. Even with heavy rain forecast this week, it would be too early to tell if that will be the case the rest of the season, Null said.
When winter began Dec. 21, automatic sensors in the Sierra Nevada, which provide most of the water used by Southern Californians, showed that the snowpack was higher than last year. But the snow level was still only 58 percent of normal, said Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources.
“Numbers this early are useful, but they're nothing to get excited about,” he said. “We still have several months of winter to go.”
The first official snow survey of the season, when water officials trudge through snow to gauge depth and water content, will be conducted tomorrow, Gehrke said. If storms forecast later this week deliver as expected, the Sierra snowpack could approach normal levels.
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