big smirk
Posted on 02/04/2008 4:13:03 AM PST by Molly Pitcher
I think Hillary still gets the nomination. I doubt that Obama will get the nomination, because the Clintons know where just as many Democrat bodies are buried as they know about Republican bodies. In fact it is likely a there are a lot more Democrat bodies buried than Republican ones.
Even if it goes to a brokered convention, and I expect it will, then Hillary will win that contest. Remember 20 percent of those delegates are party officials .. senators, congressmen, governors, and state officials. There are office holders who owe the Clinton's for their campaign money. The clintons will collect their debts. In any event lets assume Hillary gets the nomination.
There are two ways to win an election. First is to increase your own votes. The second is to reduce the number of votes your opponent gets. Hillary has about 47 percent Negatives. But those negatives are mostly Republicans. They wouldn't vote for her if she was a Democrat Joan Of Arc. AT least 35 percent of her negatives don't really hurt her.
What she must do is drive up McCain's negatives with Republicans and Independents. She needs to cause voters that would have voted for McCain if they had not found out some negative fact, to NOT VOTE.
One way to drive McCain's vote total down is to point out how liberal he has voted on many issues. Point out how much he has opposed President Bush would work too. But I think most of that has been accomplished. What Hillary will likely do is screw him with the independents.
If she can add just 12 percent of the voters to the list of those that won't vote for him he is toast. That 12 percent needs to come out of his independent support. How would she do that. One way would be to paint him as a liar. Show how sometimes he will say he supports the lefts position on an issue and then another time he will support the right side of that issue.
That causes both independents, Liberals and Conservatives to not trust him. If she can find video of McCain on both sides of an issue, she can drive down his support.
It could very well be a landslide victory for her.
If you want to make a statement that will prevent the Republican Party from nominating another McCain, the best course of action is to vote for every thing on the ballot but the President.
Lets just say that a Republican Senator in your state gets 2.5 million votes and his opponent gets 2.3 Million while McCain gets 2.2 million votes and Hillary gets 2.3 the reason is obvious. A Republican candidate of the same caliber as your senator would have defeated Hillary in your state.
However is the vote is the same except 5 third party candidates some how split 300 thousand votes, they will reason that the third party fringers made the difference not rank and file Republicans.
To really make the point that leftist Republican Candidate for President can't win, the total votes cast for president have to be appreciably smaller than those cast for other Republican candidates.
The biggest case I have seen of this sort was in California when Bill Simon ran against Gray Davis. Simon stupidly got into a mud throwing contest with Davis. Davis had huge negatives far worse than Hillary. So Davis attacked Simon and Simon attacked back. Their fighting ticked off the moderate voters that in the election. 10 million Californians voted in other state races, but only 6 million voted for Governor. Davis won. Rove tried to tell Simon to ignore Davis and stay positive and win all the moderate vote. But Simon refused and lost to Davis when moderate voters refused to vote for either candidate
If Hillary gets the nomination and is able to drive McCain's negatives through the ceiling, he will be toast. She needs to attack to cause him attack back. I don't think McCain can control his anger enough to stay positive. If she can turn off enough Republicans and Idependets to not even vote at all she could end up with at filibuster proof Senate.
That is what LBJ had after the 1964 election. The Goldwater negatives with independents cost enough Republican Senate seats that they did not have enough Republican members in the Senate to sustain a filibuster in 1965 and 1966. All LBJ needed was about 2/3 of the Democrat votes to pass the Great Society.
This time that has to be prevented.
big smirk
Yes!!! Or else you need Extra Strength Triforgettin
LOL, you 2. Good early a.m. laughs....
Quo vadis, conservatives? Michelle Malkin
Redemption: McCain at CPAC Ken Blackwell
Dems Nightmare WSJ
A medical mystery unfolds in Minnezota something non-political
Well this is a big day at CPAC for John McCain...
I like your tagline, Jem. LOL LOL Clever.
Thanks for the links, Molly; they are all good!
Tonite we start rehearsing with the orchestra for the Mahler piece. We met our guest conductor Monday night and he led us in a rigorous rehearsal with exactness, passion, and good humor.
so tonite the rehearsals continue and we'll see how we do...and the soloists will be there too.
How are you?
Pretty good, thanks! I recovered from my short but nasty cold with my tried-and-true saline spray, Zicam, staying home resting, and drinking hot water with lemon and honey. That clean living does pay off once in awhile, LOL!
Hubby unfortunately caught my germs, and his cold turned into the flu, bronchitis, and pneumonia. Not that I’m saying anything (aloud, anyway) about people who don’t listen to the common sense of their wives, but. . .
There’s a lot going on for church now during Lent, and that has been taking some of my time, too.
I’d love to hear more about how the Mahler piece turns out!
Yep, Mitt Romney just finished speaking at CPAC and he is suspending his campaign. Class act.
I listened to Romney's speech. It was genuine, profound, gracious, and very, very fine. The reception he got was very supportive.
If I find a transcript, will link it here.
I have been his strongest supporter, but certainly would have voted for him in the upcoming primary. Now....
The 81-16 vote capped more than a week of political maneuvering that ended only when majority Democrats dropped their demand that the proposal offer jobless benefits, heating aid for the poor and tax breaks for certain industries.
Republican senators blocked those ideas, but agreed to add the rebates for older people and disabled veterans to a $161 billion measure the House passed last month.
House leaders said they would act as early as Thursday night to send the measure to President Bush.
The Senate plan would rush rebates -- $600 for individuals, $1,200 for couples -- to most taxpayers and cut business taxes in hopes of reviving the economy. Individuals making up to $75,000 a year and couples earning up to $150,000 would get rebates.
Wow, what a speech. That is the Mitt Romney Utah knows. Thanks for posting the link.
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