mac ping!
Posted on 03/08/2008 6:38:32 AM PST by jdm
Bear Stearns analysts Andy Neff, Bill Hand and Ted Chung sent a note to clients this morning following Apple's (AAPL) announcement of a new developers' platform for the iPhone. Key excerpts:
WHY NOW? EIGHT COMPELLING REASONS. Despite current anxiety, we view current weakness in AAPL shares as an opportunity to add to positions based on our assessment of several positive inflection points:
1. WIDgets. With iPhone SDK launch today (3/6), AAPL further extended its lead in the emerging WIDget (Wireless Internet Devices: GPS, email, TV/video, social) market. Making media content portable is a 200mm unit (annual) market; making phones portable is over a 1bn unit market. WIDgets is somewhere in between.
2. VIDEO. Going forward it's not about music: it's about video. All the pieces are falling into place: AppleTV, video content, video rentals. Think non-linearly about an Apple TV-based HDTV.
3. INTERNATIONAL AT INFLECTION POINT. While Apple generates ~60% of sales from Americas, recent unit data points to acceleration in Europe, Japan & Asia.
4. MORE iPHONE MODELS, FEATURES. We expect to see more iPhone models (a la iPod), including 3G along with new features/apps in the coming months.
5. MAC MOMENTUM. With competitively priced products and growing mind share, we see continued momentum in Mac sales.
6. NEW iPOD DEMAND. It's no longer just about music, but it's about video & Internet access.
7. AND IT'S ALL SHIPPING. Three concurrent product cycles: Mac, iPhone, iPods with video coming on.
8. NOT ON HYPE-DRIVEN VALUATION. And the valuation (selling at 14x our CY09 op. EPS or 13x our CY09 cash EPS) is more reasonable.
· SEVERAL RISKS: Consumer spending particularly in the US/Europe (85% of sales). No single catalyst. Business model gets more complex with size. Are they innovating fast enough? Are they innovating too fast? Where are all those iPhones? Can AAPL keep beating expectations?
· NO EST CHANGES. We're maintaining our (reported) GAAP EPS for FY08 of $5.10, for FY09 of $6.50 and for 2Q08 of $1.08 (vs. $0.87).
· MAINTAINING TARGET. Given these multiple catalysts, we're maintaining our CY08 target of $220 using a 29x P/E on CY09 op. EPS plus $24/sh in net cash.
ping.
3 reasons not to buy Mac anything:
1. Google phone
2. PC are better
3. Macs are for snobs
mac ping!
By way of full disclosure: what’s your AAPL position?
I’m partial to fujies and pink ladies.
Stock Market Rule # 1:
If they’re talking about it, it’s already too late...
Do computer viruses come free with Microsoft Windows or do I have to pay extra for them ?
With the money I save on not buying anything MAC I can buy 5 licenses of the best antivirus firewall for the 5 computers bought for the price of one MAC-anything.
1. Google phone
2. PC are better
3. Macs are for snobs
I don't know about your #1 reason, but if I substitute PC = horse and Mac = auto your statement could have been made at the dawn of the 20th century.
As a 20+ year computer user, in a high tech industry, I can tell you my experience has been PCs are better for IT departments (full employment--you must have a big staff to help the users) and a very small number of computer jocks who live & breath computers, but rarely accomplish anything else outside of the computer field.
Actually, a better automotive analogy is that a Mac is like a car with an automatic transmission and GPS. Sure, I know how to shift gears, and I can still read a paper map, but unless you have some specialized reason for wanting manual shift, a modern automatic is almost always a better choice. And, until you have used a modern GPS with spoken turn-by-turn directions, you have no idea how nice it is.
Same with computers. I can always get a job done with my PC, but it might take 4 calls to the help desk and days, not hours like on my Mac.
I don’t own AAPL. Just posted the article.
>> I can always get a job done with my PC, but it might take 4 calls to the help desk and days, not hours like on my Mac.
If “the job” involves EDA or many other engineering tasks, it will take much longer than “hours” to do on a mac.
There’s no Mac software for those jobs, and many others.
Conversely, there are very few tasks (if any...?) for which Mac software exists, but not PC.
CY08 target of $220Good reason to buy Apple stock and walk the three miles to work to save gas. Y'know, since I'm trying to get down to two tanks a month (currently I run a tank in 10 or 11 days, or about $120 a month). Can't take a bus to work to save money, because buses here aren't running when I get off work at midnight. Still, might be nice to plough all available cash into Apple stock in order to dump it into the next bubble.
And still have money left over to see if you can get the integrated software that the mac comes with...throw in another 80, and you can move your whole PC over to the mac...also run linux at the same time as OS X & windows.
LOL! Nothing at all wrong with the company, but given market conditions AAPL will hit $40 before it ever sees $220.
Keep your powder dry. It isn't nearly time yet.
What licenses? Name the product and the cost. Then name the windows computer and the cost. I will bet you that you will not even be close to your claim.
And the MAC will still outperform all five together.
Seriously, I just bought an iMac for $1800. Where do you find these $360 PC's which you speak so highly of?
Cheers!
Normally I agree with your Rule #1, but not this time.
Leonard, While Freep is the home of conservatives it is also the home of some of the most mathematically challenged beings in the animal kingdom and your post points out on good example. THX.
1. Google phone
So, you would advise us all to short AAPL at this point?
Your reasons are weak IMO.
The vaunted Google phone is nothing right now. I've seen the demo's. It mayhave some success in the future, but in the end I don't think it will challenge the iPhone (BTW, Sergey Brin uses an iPhone and thinks highly of it). The SDK will make the iPhone the #1 smart phone in the world.
2. PC are better
3. Macs are for snobs
Do you know what the most profitable retail store chain in America is? That's right, APPLE. There is a reason Apple's stock has outperformed every other PC maker's stock by a wide margin in that last five years and that reason is they make the best computer products in the world. Right now Apple has about 200 retail stores. They will eventually have 500+ stores. That performance suggests that Apple products appeal to more than just the so called "snobs".
1. Google phone
2. PC are better
3. Macs are for snobs
Geez someone posts a thoughtful article and you post trash!
Yep. Every time something goes wrong.
Especially since the most common issue is something the IT department pushed to my computer, or some arcane setting change, buried 5 layers deep in dialog boxes.
OTOH, I call them up for help with some obscure feature of excel (such as properly formatting an internal rate of return function for 20 or 30 payments at non-repeating time intervals). This is a lot faster than me looking it up myself.
And then spend several hours a week per computer dealing with updates and other problems.
I have one PC and Five Macs, including a 12 year old G3. I can be working in seconds when I turn on my Mac. My PC takes several minutes to boot, then to check for new Virus software updates, then other updates, and on and on and on.
My Mac blowns any PC away in terms of power and ability. I’d actually have to spend more money to buy a PC equal in ability to my smallest Mac.
I have been in the IT industry since 1980...OS X is better. Macs are better. AIX, Solaris, HP-UX, and OS X. What do they have in common?
Macs are for snobs?.. Maybe they are for JAVA developers. Twit.
After 27 years you don’t have a clue about Macs? When you say twit are you commenting on your skill set... because if you think Macs are king I wouldn’t let you around my dogs electronic hair brush.....
But I do have a bridge to sell.
Trash... I’m not the one posting articles about Macs.... so what are you talking about?
“Do you know what the most profitable retail store chain in America is? That’s right, APPLE. There is a reason Apple’s stock has outperformed every other PC “
The same reason my neighbor bought a Prius and the other bought a Cadillac truck..... fads are good, they keep the economy rolling.
Why would you want to run OSX... you are better off running Edubuntu.
You pay WAY extra.. Way way WAY more than you wanted to pay and you KEEP on paying!
He forgot the multiple $120 per hour visits to a tech support provider when those machines fail beyond his ability to repair.
So someone wants to make a post about Apple being a good investment and you make a post trashing Apple and what am I talking about?
Gee let me think about that a bit.
Stock tout posts should not be permitted on Free Republic under any circumstances. This is not Yahoo.
HA! - I was a Navigation Technician back in the early 70s. 12 birds up; dual channel satellite receiver (AT&T) - about the size of a tower PC; a Nova or PDP-8; a generator and an antenna 6'X8” in an enclosed tube. Took multiple passes under 75 degrees and over 15 degrees (to the horizon) to get a fix within 100 meters. (I positioned offshore oil rigs and did geodetic survey work in SEA) Now I have an antenna/processor that fits in my hand and displays on my Palm and talks to me real-time. Tell me about it :-)
apple is a bad investment
I don’t know if you have seen iLife and the way it works together. Gotta have OS X - at least until someone else can make all of this work well together. My kids put together video scrapbooks all of the time.
And, I did some quick research on the web - sounds like you can run edubuntu on the mac in Parallels.
You have an electronic hair brush for your dog? You are a twit. OS X...it’s better than your dog’s electronic hairbrush. Oh and I want to buy your bridge...(twit)
So, are you signing off your name as twit? OS X is awful... twit? is that your sign-off name?
“With Macs representing only .00001 per cent of the computing world”
I see why macs are for “artist”... or people who believe themselves to be “artist”
Oh please Porterville. As I stated above this was a sarcastic response to your mindless snipe at Mac users. I have counseled both for and against installation of Mac’s and have run into more Windows fanboys and snobs on FR and in my personal life than I have the reverse. You have simply added to that list.
Mac users use Macs because they like Macs. They don’t use Macs because they are artists, musicians, or editors; they use Macs because they like the OS. Can they be a little smug at times? Yes. As can Windows users.
Fact is, most “artists” that I know are Windows users. (I work in the graphics industry - on Win XP.) Starving, goateed, latte swilling artists are most often seen in cafes pounding away on their Dell laptops around here. And this is in no way to disparage starving, goateed, latte swilling artists.
Your problem seems to go deeper than Mac vs PC. Did you have a girlfriend who dumped you for a Mac using artist? You can vent here. We’ll understand. Just be honest. Really. We’re here for you.
When can I buy one? Who makes it? Why will it be better than the iPhone?
2. PC are better
Macs are rapidly gaining market share. Windows Vista was a disaster. I can see Apple with 20% market share over the next couple years. Certainly, PC's are here to stay, but Apple will grow faster than any PC maker.
3. Macs are for snobs
What does this have to do with investing.
Actually, a lot of Mac users use Macs for the simple reason that the Mac is better for their needs than a Wintel PC. My step-mother is a very good example of this. She just bought an iMac, and I flew out to migrate her work from her PC to the new Mac.
The simple fact is that the Mac is simpler for her to deal with. She can do things on the Mac that she was never able to do on the PC. It just makes more sense to her. I would get calls 4 or 5 times a week to help her solve problems that she was having with her PC, but I have yet to hear anything bad from her about the Mac.
Of course, you'll probably say that she should have learned more about the PC. The problem is that some people are just hardwired differently: That attitude is like saying you should "learn" to be a composer. The simple fact is that she's a graphic artist and since moving to the Mac her productivity has increased about 3 fold.
And I was advising her to upgrade to a new, faster PC. I found a nice one with a 20" wide screen monitor for just over $500. But she paid about $1500 for the iMac (with the extended warranty), and she's glad that she spent the additional thousand dollars. It was worth it for her. And, I suspect, for many other Mac users.
BTW, my favorite part about these threads is when people who know NOTHING about what the users' needs are tell them that they should be using something or another! What a hoot!
Mark
I was dealing with a new Windows Vista Premium system just last night... Does anyone know how to allow remote printing to a Vista system in a workgroup environment where passwords are NOT required? I couldn't find a local policy editor on the damn system, and mmc didn't have a snap-in. All I've seen so far is the ability to turn printer sharing on or off, and the sharing requires a local account AND password. My friends are setting this system up for their kids and want NO passwords on it. They've got 3 XP systems that they want to be able to have share the printer on this computer.
And please, no "buy an apple" or "upgrade to linux/XP" comments.
Mark
How to make a million with Apple stock? Buy 2 million dollars worth.
I can’t get past your inability to do math.... so, I just figure you can’t reason either.
Okay, let’s forget about the third point (though I suspect a strong correlation of Prius owners to Mac users)
There will not be a significant shift to macs because computer-gear heads like cheap modular goods...
Macs are goofy... what is a person to do with an IMac or a Mac Cube?
Most computer-peeps like a wall of motherboards, cpus, heatsinks, and ram... not some small Mac store in the other city 100 miles north of Anytown USA with a limited inventory.
XP workgroup is pretty straight forward.
You installed the printer software? Is there a privacy option for sharing files on Vista? Vista Premium is Professional? There are different features for each type.
here is a site to check:
http://www.smallbusinesscomputing.com/biztools/article.php/3667576
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