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Posted on 07/18/2008 7:50:12 PM PDT by Swordmaker
As Microsoft (MSFT) continues to waste time and resources figuring out how to win a sideline game it has already lost--Internet media--its shareholders have bigger things to worry about. Namely, the future of the Windows and Office cash cows.
It has been so long since Microsoft had anything real to worry about in these businesses that it's easy to take their perpetual domination for granted. Don't.
We've written frequently about the cloud computing threat: Google, Yahoo, Amazon, and other web-based services companies offering functionality and apps for free that Microsoft currently charges a boatload for. Microsoft is aware of this threat and is moving to try to combat it. But if it smoothly navigates a technology paradigm shift of this magnitude, it will be one of the first dominant technology vendors in history to do so. (Think IBM's transition from mainframes, DEC, etc.)
The second major threat, however, comes from a company that Microsoft once left on the edge of death: Apple (In fact, Microsoft actually helped save Apple once, by becoming a shareholder, so it could demonstrate to regulators that it did, in fact, have a competitor. At the time, it didn't).
One-Third Of US PC Market Growth In Q2 Was Apple Macs
SAI's Dan Frommer recently noted a startling statistic: In personal computer sales in the US in Q2, Apple outgrew HP and Dell by a wide margin, continuing to regain market share it lost in the late 80s and early 90s. More surprisingly, Apple outgrew HP--the world's largest PC vendor--on a unit basis as well:
Looked at differently, the Big Three sold 1,165,000 more computers in the US in Q2 than they did last year...and Apple sold a third of these additional units. It is safe to say that the majority of these units won't be running Windows. It's also probably safe to say that most won't be running Excel, Word, or Outlook, either.
Apple's Rise Is Not Just About Steve Jobs: Microsoft's World Has Changed Forever
Is the return of Steve Jobs the only thing that has shifted the competitive landscape in favor of Apple? No. If Steve Jobs were Microsoft's only problem, the company would be fine. Steve Jobs is actually less important to the second coming of Apple's Mac business than the decline of the Windows hegemony.
Five years ago, with the exception of a handful of niche markets (academia, graphic design), it would have been inconceivable for a company or business to go Apple. As muchas people hated being shackled to Microsoft, the inability to exchange documents, buy compatible software, and find engineers and support personnel made the decision a non-starter. Now, however, with the rise of cloud computing, Google Apps, and cloud-based email and IM, choosing Mac is an ever more viable alternative. An increasing number of small companies are Mac-only shops. And even large companies are starting to give their employees a choice (also inconceivable five years ago).
Apple still has small market share (8.5% US, much less globally), so Microsoft is not going to fold up the tent overnight. But at the rate Apple is gaining share, it won't be long before Microsoft begins to feel a real bite. It is this threat, combined with the increasing attacks on its Office franchise, that Microsoft and its shareholders should really be worrying about.
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I work in IT in a hospital providing support to all kinds of platforms, and I use Windows all day. It has been pretty reliable, Norton doesn’t drag me down too much and our IT team keeps the boxes clean and up to date.
I have to tell you, I am a longtime Mac user (since 1986) and I just got my first Intel Mac the other day...this will make my life easier since I will be able to do a lot natively now on the Mac through Parallels and Boot Camp. I used to just Timbuktu into my desktop, and that worked pretty well. I went out and got myself a Technet subscription so I can have access to all the Microsoft applications...
There is ONE thing that has stood out that completely blows my mind. It is the continuous ACTIVATION crap! I cannot believe it. I saw an article a while back, the title of which was “Vista: The World’s Longest Suicide Note”. I am not using Vista (using XP) but boy, after nearly every single installation I did, I am asked “Shall we Activate Windows?” I have got to the point that I AM ready to do myself in.
I keep dutifully doing it, but it keeps popping up telling my my configuration has changed dramatically. Feh. That is for the birds.
I heard Microsoft made 50 Billion in revenues last year...
I am astounded that with all that money, Vista is what we have. The Sharepoint stuff is pretty nice, and I do like using Excel, but...with that kind of money to roll back into research and development, they should have flying cars powered by Microsoft by now.
I do not understand that company.
For a parallel that may help your comprehension, think “General Motors management” circa 1974-5.
Microsoft is in the same place and doing the same kinds of things. GM faced the onslaught of Toyota, which had already destroyed the British motor industry and made serious inroads into continental Europe (parallel - what happened to MS partners and MS in music player biz with the iPod and is currently happening in smartphones with the iPhone). And what did they do? Nothing. They produced crap product and, later, ineffectual imitations of Toyotas.
Sound familiar? I suspect it will end up in the same place.
No one seems to. Their purported answer is to purchase Yahoo. Huh? With all that revenue and cash you would think they'd be charting their own course and having others react TO THEM. Instead they are way behind Apple in innovative products, software, search engines, and most especially a VISION for the future.
I think the Microsoft angle to Yahoo...is that they truly only want about fifty percent of Yahoo...to accomplish their business goal. I think Yahoo would be torn down and half of its features would be gone within two years.
I will offer this thought of analysis though....I think Yahoo developers and hard-core technicans...would quickly leave the company under a Microsoft management logo. In turn....Apple management (my humble guess)...would quietly take the top fifty employees and huddle them in some remote location. Over a one-year period, they’d quietly develop the next vision of Yahoo....except its for Apple. Yahoo, without the best and brightest on the Yahoo team for Microsoft....will go nowhere and be stuck with Microsoft engineers and management.
Apple would eventually introduce some new search engine within eighteen months and suddenly overtake Microsoft.
has Henry stopped pumping up stocks yet? I think he still has a restraining order against him by the SEC.
It’s called the 3 C’s - Continue, Cancel, Commit Suicide
What I don’t get about the MS Yahoo deal is that Yahoo is a Unix/Linux platform and they recently bought Zimbra, which is the most likely up and coming competitor against MS Exchange. What would MS do with all that? Are they going to leave Yahoo as is? Are they going to can Zimbra?
I was excited with the Yahoo’s purchase of Zimbra. I thought it would be cool that they would be migrating their email program to something like Exchange.
Last I heard he was banned for life from having anything to do with investing, finance, etc., except for his personal investments.
Confucious say, Look thou within, my child ...
good thoughts. it’s called nimbleness, and Apple has it.
MSFT’s soft underbelly is EAs. If these start to cancel the company has serious problems.
I saw a report last week that MSFT wants Yahoo for Overture. According to this story even GOOG has to pay big time for clicks and they have some special deal. MSFT, if MSN.com, ever took off they would have to pay Yahoo bigtime.
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