Posted on 07/19/2008 9:01:57 AM PDT by Dog Gone
If you live along the Texas or Louisiana coast, you need to keep your eyes open for something that could mess with your plans next week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Click the FWD key.
That particular forecast model, which actually has been one of the better ones in recent years, shows a Category 4 hurricane hitting just east of Houston by mid-week.
But keep an eye on this in case it actually becomes a threat.
Something else to watch.
One thing I’ve re-learned in the 10 years I’ve lived in far NW Houston: the weather forecasters don’t know where a storm will hit. Rita was the last example of false forecasts.
At the same time, considering the power and damage potential of these storms, we can’t rest on the weather professionals being wrong any more than we can rest on them being right.
It’s as you say - be prepared and, I might add, don’t be stupid.
for home
I’m less concerned about the forecast track than I am that the model shows that disturbance becoming a major hurricane.
We can sweat the details if that, in fact, happens. But just knowing that we could be facing something of a crisis in four or five days is valuable information.
Thanks for the heads up, was looking at this earlier at WU.
Ain’t that the truth. Because of Katrina, Houston went overboard in reaction to Rita. I was living just inside the 610 loop and never even lost power. I drove along the feeders and looked in amazement at the “parking lot” highways.
MM
We just barely escaped the wrath of Rita. I live in far NE harris county, we lost power for four days, people 40 miles east of us lost it for weeks. The last minute turn by Rita saved the Houston area.
I’m getting on the highway now. (better than getting in the shower).
I watched in amazement during “Beer 30”. My neighbor sat in traffic for 8 1/2 hours & only moved 3 miles.
Sucker.
I live 90 miles west of Houston. The Volunteer Fire Department told us to run as Rita got closer. We ran like rabbits and I consider it a very good decision. Rifles and fishing equipment, a few days of clothes and that was it. Oh and several plastic tubs of sheet music that would be nearly impossible to replace. heheheh.
We found out what we really valued.
Had Rita hit, those who had stayed would have been in tough straits as the eye was supposed to go through our little town with winds of 110 MPH. Don’t mess with Hurricanes.
It was shameful that businesses and city services and postal service dropped off completely BEFORE Rita “hit”.
That was why I got the Hell out of Houston. I knew (from Allison) that this place would not have anything to offer for a week or more if the storm did hit. Traffic lights were out for days. Grocery stores wouldn’t open (no power or too few staffers). Advised not to drive (and nighttime driving was risky since people weren’t stopping at out traffic lights treating them as 4-way stops).
I had the opportunity to work for several days out of town if the weather had hit us. I would not have had work (or pay) for several days had I stayed and things turned badly.
Short summary, if you have the idea to leave town, go because every moment more people are also getting the idea.
And don’t bring every damn piece of furniture you own or stop ON the freeway to walk the dog or let the kids walk to McDonalds. That kills travel times.
We live in a mandatory evac zone close to Tiki - I waved at you as you went by! Hope this one does not hit where Rita did. Many of those poor folks still have blue tarp roofs. Would love to see an itemized, detailed account of the FEMA money for Katrina and Rita - names, amounts, dates, results, etc.!
According to the news, I thought it was Nancy and crew who were going to NOLA next week - can’t they get anything right?
I was in Taiwan getting hit by 2 typhoons, my wife was at home. Our grown son was pleading with me to convince her to leave town (we live NW of Willowbrook area). Local TV showed the parking lots that are usually highways. My wife had stocked some food and water and batteries. Barely got rained on.
And unfortunately beat the bejezzus out us when we lived in Sulphur, LA.
Interesting. What took you to Taiwan, Manfred?
MM
It looks like the GFDL takes it to you. I thought blam was the hurricane magnet...
This thing isn’t even officially a tropical depression yet, so I’m not packing the car. But it is going to reach an area where conditions are favorable for development, and that’s when the pucker factor kicks in.
For today, I think it’s sufficient to know that it’s prudent to pay attention for the next few days.
This is Inv 94L. The GFDL is an outlier in taking the storm towards the upper TX coast. The official NHC forecast takes it in around Brownsville. The current intensity forecast is just that it could be a tropical depression “at any time”.
I work for a hi-tech company with lots of business partners in Asia, many have HQ in Taiwan. Been there a dozen or more times in the last decade. Taipei City has cleaned up big time since my first visit in 1999 - and they’ve changed their regs to allow motorcycles in the city!
Damn! I live east of Houston. Was in on the Western edge of Rita and lost two large trees. Hope this one goes in well south of Houston. Their drought is worse than ours.
But if it's just a tropical wave, it's a healthy-looking wave.
bump for updates
We all know full and well that this storm will not hit Houston. VP Cheney was recently seen flying over the gulf this week sprinkling a trail of hurricane beans all the way to New Orleans.
I pray this system does nothing but bring some much needed rain to drought-striken Texas but never amounts to a hurricane or even a Tropical Storm.
Interesting link! Thanks.
Yep, nobody in their right mind hopes for a hurricane, no matter how much rain it might bring. It ain’t worth it.
Lots of people forget about Alicia. A small tropical wave in the gulf that exploded into a cat3 within hours and barreled into galveston and stalled for 12 hours.
The GFDL at WU now has this system moving into Mexico.
Stay safe, y’all.
I don’t think any of the model runs mean much until this tropical wave develops a closed circulation. It’s that center where the models need to initialize for their forecasts to have a remote chance of being accurate.
It probably won’t happen today because of the wind shear, but it might well by tomorrow. I think a recon plane is out scouting the system right now, so we’ll have better information shortly.
Ya’ll Stay safe !!!
I know it is way too early, but this is like the 3rd time today someone has said, “just East of Houston”.
Could someone define “just East” please. Is that LP? Baytown or Beaumont?
Just curious...thanks.
One model run, the one I linked to, had it as a major storm hitting somewhere around the Winnie area, between Houston and Beaumont.
Some of the other models don’t even develop it into a storm. So just stay tuned.
The story is noteworthy today because it raises the possibility of a storm forming. It’s way too early to focus on where it might hit. Typically, these tropical model runs will jump all over the place in their early stages.
If this becomes Dolly it might clobber you or it might stroll into Nicaragua. Waaaaay too early to know.
You can now see hints of spinning on both the eastern and western side of the wave toward the end of this loop.
That suggests that it will be a tropical depression before long. It's not impossible that it will be a tropical storm by tomorrow evening, but that's probably a stretch.
The tropics are certainly heating up with activity. Will be watching this one carefully.
If this hits I am likely to be trapped in the neighborhood. The house doesn’t flood but the surrounding areas do. Will be work watching over the next few days.
Plenty of energy in this one. It's already got 40 mph winds which are tropical storm strength, but we've not found the lower level closed circulation center yet, so it's not a tropical storm. Technically, it's not a Tropical Depression, but it might well skip that step.
I was there in Houston when Alicia went right through the downtown metroplex, there was mounds of broken glass several feet high on the streets from the buildings, what made it worse was a 4 day long heavy rain just before it hit and the ground was super saturated, most areas were without power for two weeks.
Pyrotechnics?
Uh, that would be Hydrotechnics, LOL!
ping for later
Yer just full of good news...
I think I’ll keep this from Wife Unit as long as possible...She’s still a little freaky about a little wind and rain...
I had heard the upper level winds in this part of the hemisphere over the last month or so have been really ripping apart any development and or potential development of tropical systems lately...
If anything this looks to be realistically heading to the south of us, and doesn’t appear (due to course and speed) to develop anything more intense than a TS...
But then again its all a crap-shoot anyway...
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst...
I haven’t...
Sure, a hurricane is scary. But heading out with 5 million other people to cities that don't have room for an extra 5 mil, in 100° heat, with gas at near $4 a gallon, and knowing we will run out on the way and that the stations will also be out-no thanks. I'll take my chances with the storm. If I lived nearer the water, it might be different.
We drove west on I-10 out of Houston on Wednesday afternoon, some two days or more ahead of Rita. It took us five hours to reach Austin, almost twice as long as usual. Ordinarily I wouldn’t have left that early, but a sister-in-law had gotten stuck in a highway jam for over twenty hours during an East Coast hurricane evacuation a couple of years before. She had waited too long before leaving.
The GFDL model has changed substantially since the earlier run. Hurricane hunters are in there now. Hopefully, the models will have better info to track the system.
We’re about to get the recon report.
From the satellite presentation we’re about to start humming, “You’re lookin’ swell, Dolly. I can tell Dolly. You’re still glowin’, you’re still growin’, you’re still goin’ strong”.
I’m less concerned about the forecast track at this time than whether it has truly achieved tropical storm status. Once that has happened, the model runs can initialize from the center of the storm instead of from all over the place like they did yesterday.
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