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Tropical Storm Dolly
NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 July 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.

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TOPICS: Front Page News
KEYWORDS: dolly; hurricane; tropical
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The 2008 tropical storm season swings along...
1 posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
Hello Dolly!

Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Caribbean
Sea between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

2 posted on 07/20/2008 8:38:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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3 posted on 07/20/2008 8:40:04 AM PDT by deport ( ----Cue Spooky Music---)
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To: All

Statement as of 11:45 am EDT on July 20, 2008
...Fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms in the western
Caribbean Sea...

at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1145 am EDT...1545z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 230 miles...365
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days...with little change in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will move across the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico tonight and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before Dolly reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow strengthening is forecast on Monday
once Dolly emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba today.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. An additional 2 to 4
inches is expected in the Cayman Islands...with a storm total of up
to 8 inches.

Repeating the 1145 am EDT position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb


4 posted on 07/20/2008 8:44:23 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: NautiNurse

We just watched the Weather Channel and we will be keeping an eye on Dolly.


5 posted on 07/20/2008 8:46:08 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: Ditter

We’ll know a lot more once the models run with the new data.


6 posted on 07/20/2008 8:47:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: nwctwx

7 posted on 07/20/2008 8:47:47 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

This storm is a formidable size.


8 posted on 07/20/2008 8:48:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it will spend much time over the Yucatan. Tomorrow morning it’s in the Gulf.


9 posted on 07/20/2008 8:50:43 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse; DollyCali

Dolly, please talk to this storm & tell her to keep away from my house ! :0)


10 posted on 07/20/2008 8:53:20 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (I know, that you know ,that I know, that you can see me.)
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To: NautiNurse

Let’s keep it waaaaay south..


11 posted on 07/20/2008 8:53:20 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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..


12 posted on 07/20/2008 8:53:42 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: NautiNurse
Hello, Dolly
13 posted on 07/20/2008 8:54:29 AM PDT by Nick Danger (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: NautiNurse

Be sure to (((((ping ))))) me please.


14 posted on 07/20/2008 8:54:58 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: NautiNurse

Oh boy, our first real Carribbean storm - look out.


15 posted on 07/20/2008 8:55:39 AM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen (Seinfeld was a show about nothing - so is Obama.)
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To: tiredoflaundry

We desperately need rain in Centex.


16 posted on 07/20/2008 8:55:57 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: eastforker

Y’all take care!


17 posted on 07/20/2008 8:56:40 AM PDT by Allegra (Ain't it grand? I'm back in the sand...)
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To: txflake

Well than I hope it goes to Texas, as a rain only event! :0)


18 posted on 07/20/2008 8:57:58 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (I know, that you know ,that I know, that you can see me.)
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To: NautiNurse
It's been an interesting wave to watch.. I first mentioned it at the end of the Bertha thread 10 days ago as it was leaving Africa.. it took its sweet time getting together though.

The weather site I am involved with just finished our annual weather conference last night. We had Bill Read booked and he had to back out last minute on Wednesday as all the invests started popping up. I figured that must have meant they were interested in this wave.

The center has been SW of the convection this morning, but it seems to be going up right over the center now. This is a hot zone for quick development, so it will be interesting to see if conditions will allow for any of that.

I don't know if you saw the GFDL yesterday (0z I think..) Cat 4/5 into Houston. Thankfully it seems to be a little far south to shoot through the channel, but one to watch over coming days I am sure. Headed to FL tomorrow for a week, so at least I can watch tropics from the tropics!
19 posted on 07/20/2008 8:58:06 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: NautiNurse; nwctwx; All

I guess it’s just me but this storm looks like it’s

heading more for western Cuba...NNW...


20 posted on 07/20/2008 8:58:12 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: Allegra

Thanks, we will, keeping a close eye on this one.


21 posted on 07/20/2008 8:58:14 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks NN! We’re hoping Dolly visits some wetness on central Texas and the Hill Country.


22 posted on 07/20/2008 9:02:00 AM PDT by wolfcreek (I see miles and miles of Texas....let's keep it that way.)
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To: NautiNurse

23 posted on 07/20/2008 9:07:52 AM PDT by Coffee200am ("We should all be living in mud huts and riding bicycles to avoid killing the polar bears..."/s)
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To: tiredoflaundry

HA! thanks for the ping. I PRAY this one dissipates quickly.(for many reasons) - but surely dont want my name to be like Katrina

You would NOT believe the grief I got when Dolly the sheep was cloned - for years... and every time people see me to they say hello? Of course not.. they break into a chorus of Hello Dolly!~


24 posted on 07/20/2008 9:08:58 AM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your God is!)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

just keep in mind that the center is displaced from the main area of convection. it’s apparent now with new convection right over it — looks to be moving as indicated , NW


25 posted on 07/20/2008 9:14:20 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Coffee200am

“It’s Texas or Bust!”


26 posted on 07/20/2008 9:18:34 AM PDT by Textide
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To: nwctwx
I sure hope so,,,TANKS... Image and video hosting by TinyPic
27 posted on 07/20/2008 9:20:59 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: Textide

I wonder if they’ll name the next one “Jolene”...


28 posted on 07/20/2008 9:21:47 AM PDT by Coffee200am ("We should all be living in mud huts and riding bicycles to avoid killing the polar bears..."/s)
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To: DollyCali

LOL! You poor thing!


29 posted on 07/20/2008 9:26:41 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (I know, that you know ,that I know, that you can see me.)
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To: nwctwx

Yikes, they’re popping up quick this month.


30 posted on 07/20/2008 9:31:11 AM PDT by lainie ("Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies." - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

It’s very early to really know much about the future of the storm for the U.S. if it can be stronger than forecast and not die out over land, we could likely end up seeing the track shift north. All of TX and LA should probably keep an eye on it in coming days.


31 posted on 07/20/2008 9:31:49 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: DollyCali

I know what you mean. During its run, I couldn’t believe how often people would say to me ‘you must have been named for the Seinfeld character Elaine.’ Uh, that tv show didn’t exist in the late 1960’s. It was clear that I wasn’t born in the last five years or whatever. WHY are people like that?


32 posted on 07/20/2008 9:33:47 AM PDT by lainie ("Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies." - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: NautiNurse
Lookout all you buoys and gulls.
33 posted on 07/20/2008 9:35:17 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (The man who said "there's no such thing as a stupid question" has never talked to Helen Thomas.)
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To: NautiNurse; CindyDawg

Looks like we may have a wet forecast coming up.

Which would be a good thing for everyone except the farmers.


34 posted on 07/20/2008 9:37:56 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: SouthTexas

Weatherunderground is already interpolating Dolly into Centexs’ forecast.


35 posted on 07/20/2008 9:38:55 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: nwctwx

I just checked Rigzone.com and there is no news about this.

IIRC it takes about two days to shut down those rigs,,,

We ain’t the only ones that will be watchin’...


36 posted on 07/20/2008 9:43:46 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: txflake

And there’s another one right behind her.


37 posted on 07/20/2008 9:44:33 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68
All those model runs initialized before the latest recon mission that put the center further north.

Dolly is still going to clip the Yucatan, but do not be surprised if the next model runs put the forecast track north of the Mexican border.


38 posted on 07/20/2008 9:52:48 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

Hopefully it will just everybody Wet,,,

Storms in this area always remind me of Audrey(57),,,

It ain’t gunna get that bad but even a CAT-1 will shut

down those rigs,,,

The last thing we need...


39 posted on 07/20/2008 10:07:01 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: Dog Gone
Here's the link I like, gods eye view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

40 posted on 07/20/2008 10:09:07 AM PDT by MrPiper
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To: MrPiper

well it works as copy/paste


41 posted on 07/20/2008 10:10:08 AM PDT by MrPiper
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

The Hurricane Center is being pretty conservative on Dolly right now. That’s okay. It’s only Sunday and we’re probably looking at a late Wednesday event or even later if the forecast track shifts north.

But the Gulf is pretty ideal right now for further intensification with hot water and no shear, and no strong ridge to steer the storm. I would be very surprised if Dolly doesn’t become at least a strong Category 1, and I don’t see why it couldn’t reach major hurricane status by Wednesday.


42 posted on 07/20/2008 10:13:26 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: MrPiper

Why are we interested in this storm? Is it coming to the US at all??


43 posted on 07/20/2008 10:14:48 AM PDT by Fawn
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To: MrPiper

That’s odd. I don’t know why your hotlink didn’t work.

It is a good view. Right now all the satellite views are getting hammered by the weather nuts and the response time is pretty slow.


44 posted on 07/20/2008 10:17:42 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Fawn
Why are we interested in this storm? Is it coming to the US at all??

With all due respect, where do you live?

Dolly was named about an hour ago. It's still on the other side of the Yucatan moving to the Gulf of Mexico.

They haven't even run the computer models for the forecast track using the proper center of the storm which was just identified about three hours ago.

With this kind of uncertainty, and the possibility that this could be a major hurricane within three days striking anyplace probably from the Texas/Louisiana border to northern Mexico, it's going to interest some people.

If you live along the western Gulf Coast and you're NOT interested in this storm, you're crazy.

45 posted on 07/20/2008 10:24:37 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

That’s the same the weather guy on FOX just said,,,

He also reminded me that the Yucatan is flat in that area.

Won’t tear it apart,,,

Mite kick it more to the north though...


46 posted on 07/20/2008 10:33:06 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68; All
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
47 posted on 07/20/2008 10:34:34 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: Dog Gone

Reminds me of that chick in the movie fools gold, gees!


48 posted on 07/20/2008 10:35:30 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: Dog Gone

It’s a worry for people there.We have a TS off the coast in N.J.on Monday and you worry.We have a little place down there.


49 posted on 07/20/2008 10:38:30 AM PDT by fatima
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To: Fawn

Why are we interested in this storm? Is it coming to the US at all??
~~~
This storm mite shut-down the rigs in the western Gulf,,,

All it has to do is get to a CAT-1,,,

Gas will go up...


50 posted on 07/20/2008 10:41:11 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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