Posted on 08/02/2008 11:40:05 AM PDT by janetjanet998
NHC just called this 91L which is the step below a depression...
NHC says they may send a plane into the system tommorrow
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
Local NWS offices in Texas expect this to drift a little more south then head west towards Texas..
NO map...no link nothing. So they’re getting a thunderstorm? How cozy.
Surf’s Up!!!
This area has persisted for about a week. Given its close proximity to land it shouldn’t be a big problem. At worst it will be a tropical storm.
The real area to watch is the low that rolled of the African cost 2 days ago (not the earlier one that is heading NW). By the end of the week it could be something of interest.
Hopefully it will send some rain up to NE Louisiana where we have crops dying in the fields, as well as a bunch of crunchy yards.
How south it goes first befire it turns west, (away from land) will be a factor too..
“At worst it will be a tropical storm.”
Please let it come to NC and stall out for a couple of days.....
If this develops it’s going to move right over the oil rigs. Even if its just a tropical storm they will have to shut down
We have had almost a foot of rain over the average for the last two months in central Florida.
We are doing well rainwise in the Panhandle. It's making up for the drought we had during the last two years.
The same here for your neighbors in SC.
So are you on the Redneck Riviera or way out west in Pensacola?
Its been moving around the northern Gulf for about a week now. Wednesday I thought it would become a tropical storm.
Ft Walton Beach
I had a timeshare in Navarre Beach at the late lamented Beach Condominion. Graduated from UWF in 1978 (Go Chambered Nautiluses)
It has to become a warm core low system first versus a cold core like we are used too..It’s warm core now..
before it was just a trough of low pressure(cold core)
It’s not a model...
All that shows is if system continues on it’s present course at its current direction
I don't know where we are as a region in rainfall, but we must be making some headway, areas around here got up to an inch yesterday. I'm seeing water standing where's there's been none for a long time.
It sounds like you’re in my vicinity (Ocala) although it has rained nearly every day since mid-June here.
After seeing that photo I am beginning to get a bad feeling about the next couple of months.
To each his own, I'm looking forward to another. I enjoyed Ivan back a few years ago. Just think of all the free MRE's and water you get. PLUS, I repair roofs/privacy fences/storm damage, on weekends for cash.
Free food, free water and tax free money. Could it get any better than that?
I’m in SE TX—near the LA line and we are roasting! We need several inches.
I think we stand a chance of getting something out of this one..... I’d not mind the rain but don’t want a lot of wind to go with it...
Radar, Satellite and bouy data suggest that its becoming better organized each hour
Alicia anniversary redux.
Y'all have been getting some rain, haven't you? We've had it all around-- but not on us!
Some rain but not everywhere in decent amounts... If it comes along the path taking it up your way then maybe the winds will be held down as that path skirts the coast line.
I hope that y’all get the rain that you need. Our property runs along a bayou and on one side is ridge ground (light brown soil kinda sandy) and on the other side in blackland (heavy black clay soil). The blackland has cracks in the ground big enough to get your leg into. It will take at least 4 inches just to get everything good and wet here, but all of it at once in a downpour would just run off.
I used to live Ocala. I worked for WTMC radio back in 1966. Great place. I wouldn't mind living there again.
Enjoy the rain!
JP
It's a LOT bigger now than in 66. Back then, as I remember, the city had around 25,000 people and the county 80,000. Now the city is about 50,000, but the county is well over 200,000. I moved in in 1974, so I just missed you.
DATA just in from RECON plane shows a storng depression or a minimal tropical storm
my guess a 35 MPH TD in the next update(1 HR) with 48 hours until landfall on the mid/upper TX Gulf caost....
My guess is already TS, showing signs of circulation, moving slow, could have time to develop.
Well, color me embarrassed... Even more so, considering my bachelors degree (which, in my defense, didn't focus on the tropics) lo, these many years ago.
So then, 'XTRP' probably means 'extrapolation', doesn't it?
yep ‘XTRP’ probably means ‘extrapolation’,
it’s a very common mistake since it’s on a computer model page...
recon did find some 55 MPH or so surface winds but those the readings were likley contanimated..
will find out more soon
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 88.1W AT 03/2100Z
satellite imagery during the day has shown that the low pressure
area in the Gulf of Mexico has a low-level circulation center
exposed just to the northwest of a cluster of somewhat disorganized
convection. Recent reports of an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation is well-defined
enough for the low to be designated a tropical depression. The
aircraft has reported maximum flight level winds of 36 kt and a
minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. Based on this...the initial
intensity is set to 30 kt.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 265/5. The depression is
on the southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge over the Southern
Plains...with the large-scale models forecasting the ridge to build
eastward during the next 24-48 hr. This should steer the cyclone
generally westward or west-northwestward toward the Upper Texas and
western Louisiana coasts. The track model guidance is in good
agreement in calling for landfall in this area...with the GFS and
UKMET aiming at western Louisiana and the rest of the dynamical
guidance aiming at Texas. The official forecast track follows the
model consensus and call for landfall on the Upper Texas coast in
36-48 hr. The forecast track is in best agreement with the ECMWF.
The depression is currently encountering northerly vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment...which has given the system a ragged
appearance. The large-scale models forecast the shear to diminish
and the upper-level winds to become more favorable for
intensification during the next 48 hr. The intensity forecast
calls for the system to make landfall with 50-55 kt winds in
agreement with the SHIPS model. It should be noted that the latest
GFDL calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane strength before
landfall... which is a sharp contrast to previous runs. Due to
this lack of consistency...the intensity forecast will not yet
reflect this possibility.
I used to whiz by on I-75 in ‘74, ‘75 and ‘76 when I was in the PA program at U of F. Even then I could tell it was growing by leaps and bounds. 200 out to I-75 was a little ol’ two-lane county road.
The program director at WTMC in those days was Art Ross (rip). He was an aficionado of W.C. Fields. Knew all sorts of trivia about him and his life, like the fact he and a lady friend starting drinking and driving in NJ one night and he woke up several days later in the Ocala Hotel. Had no idea how he got there. Not exactly a “George-Washington-Slept-Here” story, but one of Ocala’s claims to fame none the less. A couple of years ago my son had to ferry a Bell-47G helicopter to an airport northeast of Ocala. I flew a fixed wing up to bring him back. I was AMAZED at how Ocala sprawls now. Certainly not the quaint small town I knew and loved 40 years ago!
Well, whatever it is or where it is or what becomes of it now I just want to go record as being very thankful for the week of great rains it brought to areas of Florida that really need rain! We need a few more of these to catch up and get our ground water levels back to ‘normal’, but we’re grateful for this little disturbance.
Yep, now it is the most heavily traveled road in Ocala. When I moved in there was nothing but some gas stations (and horse farms) west of the old Taylor Field (now Ocala International Airport, without any scheduled airlines). Now it is solidly developed all the way down to the Withlacoochee river.
That is the new Taylor Field, of course.
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