Tropical Invest 91L in northern Gulf of Mexico

NOAA ^

[nwctwx]

Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.

[NautiNurse]

Rite through the oilrigs...:0/

Was thinking the same thing.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Nothing on Rigzone yet,,,

Hopefully it won’t take the LBAR track,,,

It won’t take much to shutdown the LOOP at Port Fourchon...

[Ditter]

YES!!!! RAIN!!!!!! yea!

[NautiNurse]

Hopefully, this will steer north of Dollyland.

[nwctwx]

Thunderstorm mass has taken on much more of a cyclonic look the last few hours. Low level cloud spin is evident on visible loop. Environment looks quite conducive for further development. It’s been a while, but these little systems can spin up pretty fast if conditions are optimal.

[Dog Gone]

I haven’t checked in at the weather forums I frequent, but I suppose I should.

Without knowing anything other than what I have read on this thread so far, I’m not worried about a hurricane forming. But I was around here when Tropical Storm Allison formed just offshore when nobody was prepared and it killed many and caused billions in damage.

So, it’s not something to simply ignore.

[rodguy911]

Thanks for the ping NN. The last two weeks of this month and the first two of Sept. could get interesting. Our water temps have recently heated up over the past week, we have been relatively cool this year with few highs in the 90’s rather stuck in the 83-88 zone.

[Squantos]

Been high (HIGH) 90’s for weeks........I welcome some rain !

thanks for the heads up !

[CindyDawg]

Well here’s hoping this turns out to be just a needed rain maker.

[varina davis]

We are watching. thanks

[spectre]

Groan..not this again.

sw

[SouthTexas]

It’s tagged with an “L”, it’s going to Louisiana.

That is, unless it changes to an “H”, then it will be a Houston storm. :)

[SouthTexas]

You’re out of the line of fire on this one, so far anyway.

[hiredhand]

Been high (HIGH) 90’s for weeks........I welcome some rain !

thanks for the heads up !

We've been getting sufficient rain lately. We do NOT complain about dampness and mud though. Drought is a frightening business. The garden is doing pretty good here! The one up the road is being consumed by squirrels, at least one groundhog, and raccoons. We've been spending some time there in the evenings with the appropriate "anti-pest" gear. So far, we've zapped a squirrel, and a groundhog. They are wrecking SPs garden and she is MAD. :-)

[nwctwx]

A ridge will be over the Midwest through the next few days, this should drift SW for a while or maybe indefinitely — possibly prolonging time over water. It could end up even as far south as down near where Dolly made landfall.

[Dog Gone]

That dang ridge that is killing us with heat is very strong.

Whatever this might develop into cannot crash into that.

It would be very unusual for a storm to form here and move SW toward Mexico or South Texas, but these things only behave as atmospheric conditions permit. It’s tempting to assign them some intellect, especially because we give storms names, but it doesn’t work that way.

Unfortunately, all we can do at present is understand the mechanisms that guide them, and then make guarded guesses as to how those mechanisms will likely change over the next few hours and days.

We’re really good at the mechanisms. We’re not as good at predicting the changes.

[Rightly Biased]

Maybe we will get some rain out of this one.

Thanks NN

[CindyDawg]

so far anyway.

Don't you be talking like that.

[SouthTexas]

You’re right, it would be backwards anyway and this ain’t Florida where they stack them one on top of the other. ;)

[Shadowstrike]

Thanks for the ping