I told you so

Vanity | 29 September 2008 | JasonC

[JasonC]

I told you so.

Happy?

Think you saved anybody lots of money?

Think you reduced the role of government?

On saving money, US markets dropped $1.2 trillion today, and worldwide it was more like $3.5 trillion.

On the role of government, the Fed announced $630 billion in new central bank credits today, half of it to central banks abroad. And oh, the FDIC guaranteed to Citigroup all losses beyond the first 13% on Wachovia's mortgage book, which is around $300 billion.

And it won't be remotely enough, and will probably need to be doubled tomorrow.

When are you going to learn that you are in the same boat with those you are throwing brickbats at, that you are their creditors and end owners, and that destroying as many as you like will not avert one dime of the hit, but just multiply it tenfold and drop it right back in your own lap?

How many times does this have to blow up in your face in succession, before you admit the possibility that others might actually know something about it, and you might actually be wrong?

[StrictTime]

I will always say no to socialism.

[Crim]

Burn baby burn....

[cripplecreek]

[JasonC]

Say whatever you like, the Fed and FDIC will act. You aren't stopping them from acting, you are just requiring them to act on 10 times the scale.

[tenger]

we were in this situation before the bail out theory...no indication that the people with the bail out money intended to change their habits...so we are just facing realty rather than postponing it for a worse reality....

[DLfromthedesert]

Oil is dropping; so there IS a silver lining.

[JennysCool]

I wish I’d invested in Self-Serving Free Republic Vanities two weeks ago. I’d be a trillionaire.

[itsPatAmerican]

I will always say no to socialism.

I think AIG, where we actually nationalized a company, is much more socialist than this bailout. Why aren't we making a bigger stink about that? This bailout buys distressed securities, but doesn't nationalize any companies.

[syriacus]

Why did Tipsy Nancy Pelosi give that nasty speech?

She made me think things are NOT the same as she has been telling us they are.

Something smells fishy.

[raptor29]

If the ‘value’ of these stocks and other assets is legit, the money will come back to them in short order. And if the value is actually phony and inflated (which it is) then it’s proper economics for those assets to go to their proper valuations. Those who are so flustered by the DOW going down or their phony real estate equity disappearing are simply beneficiaries of a phony run-up, and you want the rest of the country to dig deep so as to keep your phony assets propped up. Sorry if I don’t really care.

[MNJohnnie]

How many times are you simply going to make up total bullshit and call it facts? Your “facts” here are wholly without any base in reality. Total make believe. Utter nonsense. What vanished today was some decimal places on some balance sheets. Nothing more.

[gost2]

That’s like saying no to the ocean when you find yourself adrift without a boat in the exact middle of the Atlantic.

[proudtobeanamerican1]

Oh, so now we judge the effects on 1 days trading and not days, weeks or even years. The market will work itself out. Companies will purchase other companies. The sun will rise. I guarantee it.

[Notary Sojac]

before you admit the possibility that others might actually know something about it,

Like the person quoted here?

In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy. “It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”

[johniegrad]

You forgot “shameless” in your list of adjectives.

[JasonC]

Net mortgage issuance in calendar 2005 was $1.1 trillion. Net mortgage issuance in the 2nd quarter of this year, annual rate, was $80 billion. US financials are worth less than half what they were worth a year ago, half the major companies then don't exist, and you can count the ones with the same CEO on one hand and they are all the stand outs.

They changed their habits quite decisively, thank you very much. But you haven't changed any of yours. Don't worry, you will get to, and soon enough.

[Bommer]

How many times does this have to blow up in your face in succession, before you admit the possibility that others might actually know something about it, and you might actually be wrong?

Wow! Let me ask you something. Do you get autograph seekers when your a legend in your own mind?

"see my broker is JasonC and he says....." when JasonC talks.....nobody gives a sh!t!

[MNJohnnie]

Scream hysterical all you like. You don't change your hysteria to fact by screaming it louder. This is a totally necessary adjustment in the market. You don't get to ride Capitalism on the way up then scream for socialism on the way down. We are NOT here to insure YOUR risks.

[proudtobeanamerican1]

And you think that those companies would have no strings to the government after a bailout?

[proudtobeanamerican1]

And you think that those companies would have no strings to the government after a bailout?

[BookmanTheJanitor]

I wish I’d invested in Self-Serving Free Republic Vanities two weeks ago. I’d be a trillionaire.

Okay...that was funny.

[warsaw44]

The poster isn’t having a fit he is simply trying to figure out will happen without the bailout. My initial reaction was a ‘ no ‘ to the bailout but then what happens without it? I’ve heard so many different opinions I’m lost at this point.

[Ramius]

I will always say no to socialism.

Well, me too. Though under President Obama it isn't going to matter much what we think, or say, or do.

[StrictTime]

I thought the AIG bailout was a bad idea, too. But this vanity wasn’t about that.

[Stentor]

On saving money, US markets dropped $1.2 trillion today, and worldwide it was more like $3.5 trillion.

Crap. Now we'll never catch up.

[JasonC]

If your policies were continued, there wouldn't be any market to work itself out in a matter of a few months. But they will not be. You will then take credit for a robustness that is entirely due to the existence and effectiveness of policies you oppose. Ideologues never face reality, they just wait for other men to change it, and then so "oh look there, something good happened, see, I was responsible for that because I think so well of myself." Meanwhile the actual direct consequences of their actions are visible to all but the blind, and reek to high heaven.

[pissant]

So adding 700 billion more approved by the same crooks that screwed over the mortgage industry is good in what way? Or should i just read up on Pelosi’s magnificent defense of more socialism?

[Notary Sojac]

Net mortgage issuance in calendar 2005 was $1.1 trillion. Net mortgage issuance in the 2nd quarter of this year, annual rate, was $80 billion.

Comparing a psychotically frenzied housing boom to the hangover which it quite rightly produced.

Might as well compare total dotcom IPO's in January 1999 to January 2001.

[dfwgator]

It goes all the way back to the Chrysler Bailout, it set the precedent.

[JasonC]

Since it was too high, yes that is constructive. All prices declining by a factor of 5 or 10 - wages included - no, that wouldn't count as a "silver lining". Just as a huge net transfer to holders of nominal claims, from every actual producer. If the Fed did nothing right now, that is what would immediately happen. But thankfully it is insulated from the nabobs here, and it will do what you will not.

[Xenophon450]

Or would that be Trollionaire...

[itsPatAmerican]

I thought the AIG bailout was a bad idea, too. But this vanity wasn’t about that.

I just think in general we are making a bigger deal about the bailout than AIG, but AIG is the much more slippery slope. We nationalized a company. That's socialism. $700B is bigger than $85B, but in principle we should be up in arms over AIG.

[StrictTime]

So I drown with my integrity intact. I’d drown anyway, right? If I was adrift without a boat in the middle of the Atlantic? If the “boat” you are suggesting in your metaphor is this tax-payer rape called a “bailout”, it’s made of nothing but straw and will sink eventually.

[kittymyrib]

I won’t believe there’s a depression until I hear about people jumping out of windows along Wall St. and the survivors selling apples on the streets of NYC.

Experiences such as those caused people in my parents’ generation to value their jobs and their money. We have become very soft and very lethargic about watching what politicians have been doing to the US dollar the past 50 years.

[ProudFossil]

If the ‘value’ of these stocks and other assets is legit, the money will come back to them in short order. And if the value is actually phony and inflated (which it is) then it’s proper economics for those assets to go to their proper valuations. Those who are so flustered by the DOW going down or their phony real estate equity disappearing are simply beneficiaries of a phony run-up, and you want the rest of the country to dig deep so as to keep your phony assets propped up. Sorry if I don’t really care.

After the drop today I checked my accounts. I 'lost' about 6.5% on my investments. Except I am still ahead about 80% from the actual purchase prices and reinvested dividends. That is over a period of 10 years. So you are absolutely correct the values are inflated. Am I happy the values dropped? no. Am I happy that I still have enough left in the investments to allow me to go on crusies? yes. Will I be unhappy if they drop down to a ROI of about 4 or 5%. yes. But I still have enough to stay retired on. So I agree with you. I dont' really care if the market loses more of the phony asset runup.

[vbmoneyspender]

You forgot to capitalize random words in your post. In case you were not aware, capitalization is the key to making your arguments both compelling and cogent.

[Dawn531]

Your assumption is that the 700 billion bailout would have ended the problems, and more money would not have to be thrown at the problem.

[DRey]

"The poster isn’t having a fit he is simply trying to figure out will happen without the bailout. My initial reaction was a ‘ no ‘ to the bailout but then what happens without it? I’ve heard so many different opinions I’m lost at this point."

Lower gas prices, credit only for the creditworthy, lower stock market (buyer's market), stronger dollar, higher interest on savings accounts and other safer investment vehicles, mortgages only for those who qualify...yep. It's a disaster waiting to happen, ain't it?

[JennysCool]

Or would that be Trollionaire...

Ha! Well, we've certainly been rich in those!

[JasonC]

The other fellow said the finance sector had not changed its actions. He was ignorantly wrong or lying. You are able to see the point, but dislike it, and so you want to spin in away. You are a sophist.

On the substance, the second figure basically means the real estate markets had seized - even before the coming destruction of the banks.

Burke speaks somewhere of the ignorance of the French revolutionaries, not knowing how to govern, they sell their tools. All you are doing here.

[Notary Sojac]

We've had fifteen years of "economic growth" which basically consisted of borrowing money from foreigners, then using that money to buy assets (first dot-com stocks, then houses) back and forth from each other at ever-ratcheting prices.

$700 billion x 20 is not going to keep that so-called model afloat.

[cripplecreek]

You don't get to ride Capitalism on the way up then scream for socialism on the way down. We are NOT here to insure YOUR risks.

Unfortunately I've had a couple of posters try to explain my "shared risk" lately.

[PhilDragoo]

I wish I’d invested in Self-Serving Free Republic Vanities two weeks ago. I’d be a trillionaire.

It is so up.

[ml/nj]

US markets dropped $1.2 trillion today

Does this mean that you are one of those who would rather not do away with mark-to-market?

ML/NJ

[advertising guy]

I really think a special clause no one wanted got booted and it pissed Pelosi off

[Notary Sojac]

the real estate markets had seized because prices have not yet adjusted downward to their income and rent driven fundamentals.

[o2bfree]

Wait, did Reagan bail out wall street when the market crashed by 25% in 1987 ?

It wasn’t even a consideration was it?

The democrats had shite eating grins all week. That’s how we know this was a manufactured crisis. Rush told the story today of the infamous photograph in the New York TImes that had to be removed from their website, because it showed the Democrat leadership having a little too much fun during the crisis.