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Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age
science.nasa.gov ^ | 09.30.2008 | Dr. Tony Phillips

Posted on 10/01/2008 5:54:24 AM PDT by SpinnerWebb

Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age.

As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."


TOPICS: Astronomy
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; globalwarming; sun; sunspot
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Brrrr.... this global warming that Algore keeps talking about will sure make for some brisk winters in the years to come!
1 posted on 10/01/2008 5:54:25 AM PDT by SpinnerWebb
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To: SpinnerWebb; FrPR; enough_idiocy; rdl6989; IrishCatholic; Normandy; Delacon; ...
 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

2 posted on 10/01/2008 5:56:43 AM PDT by steelyourfaith
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To: SpinnerWebb

Side effects of Carl Rove’s weather machine. It’s Bush’s fault.


3 posted on 10/01/2008 5:57:22 AM PDT by mbynack (Retired USAF SMSgt)
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To: SpinnerWebb
First of all, prepare for a very brisk winter this year! The Farmer's Almanac is predicting it, and I think it's spot on.

The Earth has been in a fairly steep cooling trend since 2006, I don't expect it to turn around for some time. The really crazy part is that Solar Cycle 25 (not due for 11-13 years) is expected to be extremely weak by NASA. So, we could well be looking at 20-30 more years of cooling!

It'll be interesting to see things spin as the politicians realize they bet on exactly the wrong horse...not that humans can do much to affect the climate one way or the other.

4 posted on 10/01/2008 6:00:25 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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To: PreciousLiberty

No wonder the Chinese are colonizing Africa


5 posted on 10/01/2008 6:02:53 AM PDT by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: PreciousLiberty
not that humans can do much to affect the climate one way or the other.

Oh, come now! I remember in the '70's we were told we were heading into the next Ice Age. Then came the '80's and the era of "Big Hair" and the talk of global cooling disappeared. Coincidence??? I think not!

Time to get the hairspray going again!!! :o)

6 posted on 10/01/2008 6:05:15 AM PDT by Mygirlsmom (How to make a Dem crazy: Speak softly and carry a big LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: SpinnerWebb
On most school days my husband holds astronomy programs for elementary students in his school district.

He used to project an actual image of the sun on the floor. He and the kids would count the spots.

That changed some months back.

7 posted on 10/01/2008 6:06:45 AM PDT by syriacus (Under Bush, Dems controlled the Senate for MOST of the 107th Congress and for ALL of the 110th)
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To: PreciousLiberty
It'll be interesting to see things spin as the politicians realize they bet on exactly the wrong horse

The politicians will readjust. Fortunately, there is total consensus on how to handle Global Cooling: we must deindustrialize the West, raise taxes, sell carbon offsets, and allow China to take a pass on environmental standards.

8 posted on 10/01/2008 6:08:28 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Michelle, spare me your phony outrage, you know as well as I do that dress makes your butt look big)
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To: SpinnerWebb
Let It Snow.... Let It Snow.... Let it Snow....
9 posted on 10/01/2008 6:09:15 AM PDT by bayliving (Democrats used to be funny. Now they're just plain dangerous.)
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To: SpinnerWebb
Now the tree hugger is going to do a 180 and fault us for global cooling. Wonder what he will come up with now? Need more SUVs on the road? Crank up the carbon? This is gonna really get funny. Gore caught up in the upcoming ice age. LOL
10 posted on 10/01/2008 6:09:56 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Sarah Palin reminds me of the story about David and Goliath)
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To: Mygirlsmom

Yeah, back in the 70s they were talking spreading coal black on the poles to melt them ... My how times change. All but liberals that is, they just move from one generated hysteria hoax to the next.


11 posted on 10/01/2008 6:12:09 AM PDT by Tarpon (Barrack Obama will ban all the guns he has the votes for ...)
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To: SpinnerWebb
We're DOOOOOOMED!!!
12 posted on 10/01/2008 6:12:33 AM PDT by theDentist (Qwerty ergo typo : I type, therefore I misspelll.)
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To: Evil Slayer

Let’s just hope we don’t have another Mt. Pinatubo type eruption or we ALL could be in trouble!


13 posted on 10/01/2008 6:14:21 AM PDT by bayliving (Democrats used to be funny. Now they're just plain dangerous.)
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To: SpinnerWebb
Well, we can't seem to win for losing. My basic question still stands: is SPF 30 enough for daily use?

Seriously, though, anyone know where there's a decent sale on base layers? Sounds like we're going to need them.

14 posted on 10/01/2008 6:16:32 AM PDT by Desdemona (Lipstick only until the election. The gloss has been sacrificed for the greater good.)
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To: bayliving

We’ve had larger eruptions than Pinatubo in both the southern and northern hemispheres over the last year (Chile and the Aleutians). Plus, both the Pacific and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillations are in “cold phase”.

Can’t think of much of anything that’d push temps up...


15 posted on 10/01/2008 6:18:17 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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To: PreciousLiberty

“...SPOT on.”

I get it!

That’s a good one.


16 posted on 10/01/2008 6:20:37 AM PDT by WayneS (Vote Obama bin Biden 2008 - "Because the world doesn't suck enough yet".)
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To: PreciousLiberty
It'll be interesting to see things spin as the politicians realize they bet on exactly the wrong horse...not that humans can do much to affect the climate one way or the other.

It's making those guys who predicted a new Ice Age in the 70's look a lot smarter.

How does NASA predict the strength/weakness of an upcoming solar cycle?

17 posted on 10/01/2008 6:22:33 AM PDT by nina0113 (If fences don't work, why does the White House have one?)
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To: SpinnerWebb; AFPhys

This has been one of the nicest summers and (so far) fall, that I can recall in a long time.

The down side is that the Great Lakes are REALLY warm for this time of year. The right conditions mean getting nailed with a lot of lake-effect snow in those areas prone to it.


18 posted on 10/01/2008 6:23:58 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: SpinnerWebb

I’m feeling chill.


19 posted on 10/01/2008 6:27:36 AM PDT by AU72
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To: SpinnerWebb
Sunspots have disappeared. Algore has pinpointed the cause...

20 posted on 10/01/2008 6:30:07 AM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: AU72
Farmers Almanac says when the manbearpig stores much fat, cold winter coming.


21 posted on 10/01/2008 6:33:31 AM PDT by Covenantor ( Gov. Palin's on board, the fish fry has commenced.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
“It'll be interesting to see things spin as the politicians realize they bet on exactly the wrong horse”

They'll never admit it. Racism in mortgage lending was to be solved with new regulations. Now that the wheels are coming off, the same politicians are screaming that the problem was deregulation. 180 degrees without even spilling their late.

As long as things are “progressive” toward a global socialist economy, they will say anything and rely on our short memories and lack of a database of past announcements (the latter has changed a little, for now).

22 posted on 10/01/2008 6:35:42 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: mbynack

Yep, somehow this MUST be Bush’s fault.


23 posted on 10/01/2008 6:41:24 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (G-d is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: SpinnerWebb

Although it started with a long minimum, that sunspot cycle became extremely active, peaking in 1958-59. I didn’t receive my first amateur radio license until 1961, but the sunspot cycle that peaked in ‘58-59 was legendary for radio propagation. (Higher sunspot count correlates with increased ionization of the upper atmosphere, where radio signals are refracted (”skipped”) back to earth, thousands of miles from where they originated.)

Jack


24 posted on 10/01/2008 6:43:28 AM PDT by JackOfVA
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To: SpinnerWebb

Cheney-Halliburton has been illegally drilling on those spots without congressional approval. That’s why they’re gone now.

We must investigate.


25 posted on 10/01/2008 6:47:29 AM PDT by SJSAMPLE
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To: PreciousLiberty

Technically - You’re right: Solar Cycle 25 is due after solar cycle 24 finisghes, and hte “average” sunspot cycle” is 11-13 years. So, by math, solar cycle 25 might come that early “The really crazy part is that Solar Cycle 25 (not due for 11-13 years) is expected to be extremely weak by NASA..”

But solar cycle 24 hasn’t started yet (now, as of Oct 2008 we are still at the minimum zero sunspot activity between cycle 23 and 24), and nobody can predict when cycle 24 will even begin, much less end. Nor how high the peak of cycle 24 will be: It too may be as low as cycle 25 may be.

So, could we face 20-30 years more of cooling? Absolutely.

And I would bet on the side of 28-36 years of cooling - before temperatures even get BACK to where they are now. All previous cooling cycles this century have had 26-30 years of cooling, 5-10 years of flat, and 26-30 years of increase again, 5-10 years of flat, .....


26 posted on 10/01/2008 7:01:29 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: nina0113; PreciousLiberty

NASA looks at the circulating currents underneath the surface. Apparently the speed of those plasma currents relates fairly well with the intensity of the next solar cycle.


27 posted on 10/01/2008 7:03:53 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: JackOfVA

Back either ‘81 or ‘82 I was in Bavaria and caught a skip out of Boston of all places. And to top it off the guy was on a CB!!


28 posted on 10/01/2008 7:48:00 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Amazing how Obama, Rangel, Biden and Dodd all got killer mortgage rates and below cost property.)
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To: SpinnerWebb

I’ve lived in FL for 16 years. We usually get our first cold front of the year sometime during the first half of October, usually like clockwork from the 7th - 15th. Now, granted this time of year a “cold front” means that instead of 89 degrees it will be 82 degrees :) But still.

This year it came a week ago.

Not looking forward to January.


29 posted on 10/01/2008 7:51:28 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Amazing how Obama, Rangel, Biden and Dodd all got killer mortgage rates and below cost property.)
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To: VeniVidiVici

Dang...And I’m taking the family to Sarasota over Christmas...Was hoping that global warming would really kick in over that time frame.


30 posted on 10/01/2008 9:39:44 AM PDT by opus86
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To: opus86

LOL! Cross your fingers. :-) I remember a cold New Years but not a cold Christmas.


31 posted on 10/01/2008 10:13:35 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Amazing how Obama, Rangel, Biden and Dodd all got killer mortgage rates and below cost property.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Sun spot ping


32 posted on 10/01/2008 10:43:23 AM PDT by BBell
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To: PreciousLiberty
We’ve had larger eruptions than Pinatubo in both the southern and northern hemispheres over the last year (Chile and the Aleutians).

Really?

Why haven't we heard more about them then?

Pinatubo was ALL over the network news.

33 posted on 10/01/2008 11:34:29 AM PDT by bayliving (Democrats used to be funny. Now they're just plain dangerous.)
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To: BBell; Rurudyne; 75thOVI; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; ...
Thanks BBell.
 
Catastrophism
 
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic ·
 

34 posted on 10/01/2008 2:45:52 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile hasn't been updated since Friday, May 30, 2008)
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To: SunkenCiv

If only we had politicians with spotless records and a sun without....


35 posted on 10/01/2008 4:39:22 PM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: SpinnerWebb; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

An Exhausting War on Emissions

Public Employee Pensions Endangered by State Officials Playing Global Warming Politics

British Jury decides that threat of global warming justifies breaking the law

Jobs more important than climate change action

Green Power: Buyer Beware

Raked Over Coal

Global warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Junk Science

Latest from Terra Daily

36 posted on 10/01/2008 5:52:11 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Drill Here! Drill Now! Pay Less! Sign the petition at http://www.americansolutions.com/)
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To: PreciousLiberty
We've had larger eruptions than Pinatubo in both the southern and northern hemispheres over the last year (Chile and the Aleutians).

Pinatubo pushed sulfur 20 miles high, that's what blocks the sun. The Chilean volcano was 6 or 7, don't know about the other.

37 posted on 10/01/2008 5:59:36 PM PDT by palmer (Some third party malcontents don't like Palin because she is a true conservative)
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To: bayliving

Because they weren’t as powerful as Pinatubo (not high enough to cause climate changes).


38 posted on 10/01/2008 6:02:45 PM PDT by palmer (Some third party malcontents don't like Palin because she is a true conservative)
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To: palmer

“Pinatubo pushed sulfur 20 miles high, that’s what blocks the sun. The Chilean volcano was 6 or 7, don’t know about the other.”

The Chile blast had a larger cloud than Pinatubo - but apparently the SO2 amounts wasn’t too high (I hadn’t seen anything on that until today). The Aleutian blast released over 1,000,000 tons of SO2, but that was still supposedly only 1/20 of Pinatubo’s output.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,354282,00.html
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1987

So, the volcanism probably won’t be too much of a factor...


39 posted on 10/01/2008 6:21:53 PM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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To: PreciousLiberty

yep, those extra miles make a difference. The sulfur spreads nicely and hangs around in the stratosphere for a year or two.


40 posted on 10/01/2008 6:33:16 PM PDT by palmer (Some third party malcontents don't like Palin because she is a true conservative)
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To: PreciousLiberty
We’ve had larger eruptions than Pinatubo in both the southern and northern hemispheres over the last year (Chile and the Aleutians).

Neither Chaiten or Kasatochi was larger than Pinatubo. Pinatubo was VEI 6. Chaiten's currently a VEI 5 (there's still a chance it could blow the whole dome, which could be bigger). I can't find anyone with a VEI estimate for Kasatochi -- it was pretty recent -- but it certainly didn't cause ashfall on Seattle like Katmai did. Katmai and Pinatubo were the two largest eruptions of the 20th century.

41 posted on 10/02/2008 6:05:58 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE
No matter what the Sun does, for a normal or larger El Nino event, the year in which it happens will set a new annual temperature record in the global instrumental temperature compilation which begins in the 1880s. It could happen without an El Nino. I've predicted many times already that this will happen in one of the following years: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, or 2013.

When (notice I did not say "if") that happens, there will no longer be any particular talk about a cooling trend. The only problem I see now is that as the next solar cycle revs up and the sunspot numbers increase -- as they will very likely do over the next 5-6 years -- and then there is a new global temperature record in that period, climate change skeptics will blame it on the Sun. Timing is everything.

42 posted on 10/02/2008 6:13:48 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: bayliving
Why haven't we heard more about them then?

See post 41. Nonetheless, the main reason that the fairly impressive eruptions of Chaiten and Kasatochi haven't been prominent in major news coverage is due to the fact that they were in remote locations (way south Chile and the Aleutians and didn't threaten or close major U.S. military bases, as Pinatubo did.

43 posted on 10/02/2008 6:19:21 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator

Thank you!

(More later, the dentist calls....)


44 posted on 10/02/2008 6:24:24 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: palmer
Pinatubo pushed sulfur 20 miles high, that's what blocks the sun. The Chilean volcano was 6 or 7, don't know about the other.

Plus, Pinatubo was in the tropics, aiding the global coverage of the sulfur aerosol.

Where did you see a VEI 6 or 7 estimate for Chaiten? While certainly not scientifically definitive, the site below puts it at 5.

Volcanic Explosivity Index

Note that he ranks Chaiten with Hudson 1991 (not everyone remembers this one because Pinatubo was the same year). They were very similar. Here's the SO2 cloud from Hudson:

Background: 1991 Eruptions of Cerro Hudson, Chile

Hudson had a VEI 6-7 in the past; any of the Andean cordillera volcanoes all the way up to Mexico are capable of producing one, at any time.

45 posted on 10/02/2008 6:35:52 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: Mygirlsmom

....I remember in the ‘70’s....

In 1977, the water around Duck Island at Warrior’s Path State Park froze and you could walk across it. There were ice skaters. Temps below zero persisted for days.

It never happened before or since. (the lake was impounded in about 1953 and thus not possible before that year)


46 posted on 10/02/2008 6:45:56 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Off With her head.....)
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To: cogitator

Sorry about the confusion, I was only talking about how high the plume was. Pinatubo was 20 miles, the volcano in Chile was 6 or 7. Your measurement is more precise, but I didn’t look that up.


47 posted on 10/02/2008 7:52:39 AM PDT by palmer (Some third party malcontents don't like Palin because she is a true conservative)
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To: SpinnerWebb

Algore is on suicide watch - up his meds!


48 posted on 10/02/2008 7:54:22 AM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten ((if that's possible))
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To: cogitator

BTW, the two protospots have disappeared from the sun and the flux is still high. Looks like we’re still waiting for the cycle low.


49 posted on 10/02/2008 7:54:41 AM PDT by palmer (Some third party malcontents don't like Palin because she is a true conservative)
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To: syriacus

Kudos to your husband for doing that!


50 posted on 10/02/2008 7:55:27 AM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten
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