Skip to comments.Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age
Posted on 10/01/2008 5:54:24 AM PDT by SpinnerWebb
Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age.
As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.
"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."
Side effects of Carl Rove’s weather machine. It’s Bush’s fault.
The Earth has been in a fairly steep cooling trend since 2006, I don't expect it to turn around for some time. The really crazy part is that Solar Cycle 25 (not due for 11-13 years) is expected to be extremely weak by NASA. So, we could well be looking at 20-30 more years of cooling!
It'll be interesting to see things spin as the politicians realize they bet on exactly the wrong horse...not that humans can do much to affect the climate one way or the other.
No wonder the Chinese are colonizing Africa
Oh, come now! I remember in the '70's we were told we were heading into the next Ice Age. Then came the '80's and the era of "Big Hair" and the talk of global cooling disappeared. Coincidence??? I think not!
Time to get the hairspray going again!!! :o)
He used to project an actual image of the sun on the floor. He and the kids would count the spots.
That changed some months back.
The politicians will readjust. Fortunately, there is total consensus on how to handle Global Cooling: we must deindustrialize the West, raise taxes, sell carbon offsets, and allow China to take a pass on environmental standards.
Yeah, back in the 70s they were talking spreading coal black on the poles to melt them ... My how times change. All but liberals that is, they just move from one generated hysteria hoax to the next.
Let’s just hope we don’t have another Mt. Pinatubo type eruption or we ALL could be in trouble!
Seriously, though, anyone know where there's a decent sale on base layers? Sounds like we're going to need them.
We’ve had larger eruptions than Pinatubo in both the southern and northern hemispheres over the last year (Chile and the Aleutians). Plus, both the Pacific and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillations are in “cold phase”.
Can’t think of much of anything that’d push temps up...
I get it!
That’s a good one.
It's making those guys who predicted a new Ice Age in the 70's look a lot smarter.
How does NASA predict the strength/weakness of an upcoming solar cycle?
This has been one of the nicest summers and (so far) fall, that I can recall in a long time.
The down side is that the Great Lakes are REALLY warm for this time of year. The right conditions mean getting nailed with a lot of lake-effect snow in those areas prone to it.
I’m feeling chill.
They'll never admit it. Racism in mortgage lending was to be solved with new regulations. Now that the wheels are coming off, the same politicians are screaming that the problem was deregulation. 180 degrees without even spilling their late.
As long as things are “progressive” toward a global socialist economy, they will say anything and rely on our short memories and lack of a database of past announcements (the latter has changed a little, for now).
Yep, somehow this MUST be Bush’s fault.
Although it started with a long minimum, that sunspot cycle became extremely active, peaking in 1958-59. I didn’t receive my first amateur radio license until 1961, but the sunspot cycle that peaked in ‘58-59 was legendary for radio propagation. (Higher sunspot count correlates with increased ionization of the upper atmosphere, where radio signals are refracted (”skipped”) back to earth, thousands of miles from where they originated.)
Cheney-Halliburton has been illegally drilling on those spots without congressional approval. That’s why they’re gone now.
We must investigate.
Technically - You’re right: Solar Cycle 25 is due after solar cycle 24 finisghes, and hte “average” sunspot cycle” is 11-13 years. So, by math, solar cycle 25 might come that early “The really crazy part is that Solar Cycle 25 (not due for 11-13 years) is expected to be extremely weak by NASA..”
But solar cycle 24 hasn’t started yet (now, as of Oct 2008 we are still at the minimum zero sunspot activity between cycle 23 and 24), and nobody can predict when cycle 24 will even begin, much less end. Nor how high the peak of cycle 24 will be: It too may be as low as cycle 25 may be.
So, could we face 20-30 years more of cooling? Absolutely.
And I would bet on the side of 28-36 years of cooling - before temperatures even get BACK to where they are now. All previous cooling cycles this century have had 26-30 years of cooling, 5-10 years of flat, and 26-30 years of increase again, 5-10 years of flat, .....
NASA looks at the circulating currents underneath the surface. Apparently the speed of those plasma currents relates fairly well with the intensity of the next solar cycle.
Back either ‘81 or ‘82 I was in Bavaria and caught a skip out of Boston of all places. And to top it off the guy was on a CB!!
I’ve lived in FL for 16 years. We usually get our first cold front of the year sometime during the first half of October, usually like clockwork from the 7th - 15th. Now, granted this time of year a “cold front” means that instead of 89 degrees it will be 82 degrees :) But still.
This year it came a week ago.
Not looking forward to January.
Dang...And I’m taking the family to Sarasota over Christmas...Was hoping that global warming would really kick in over that time frame.
LOL! Cross your fingers. :-) I remember a cold New Years but not a cold Christmas.
Sun spot ping
Why haven't we heard more about them then?
Pinatubo was ALL over the network news.
If only we had politicians with spotless records and a sun without....
Pinatubo pushed sulfur 20 miles high, that's what blocks the sun. The Chilean volcano was 6 or 7, don't know about the other.
Because they weren’t as powerful as Pinatubo (not high enough to cause climate changes).
“Pinatubo pushed sulfur 20 miles high, that’s what blocks the sun. The Chilean volcano was 6 or 7, don’t know about the other.”
The Chile blast had a larger cloud than Pinatubo - but apparently the SO2 amounts wasn’t too high (I hadn’t seen anything on that until today). The Aleutian blast released over 1,000,000 tons of SO2, but that was still supposedly only 1/20 of Pinatubo’s output.
So, the volcanism probably won’t be too much of a factor...
yep, those extra miles make a difference. The sulfur spreads nicely and hangs around in the stratosphere for a year or two.
Neither Chaiten or Kasatochi was larger than Pinatubo. Pinatubo was VEI 6. Chaiten's currently a VEI 5 (there's still a chance it could blow the whole dome, which could be bigger). I can't find anyone with a VEI estimate for Kasatochi -- it was pretty recent -- but it certainly didn't cause ashfall on Seattle like Katmai did. Katmai and Pinatubo were the two largest eruptions of the 20th century.
When (notice I did not say "if") that happens, there will no longer be any particular talk about a cooling trend. The only problem I see now is that as the next solar cycle revs up and the sunspot numbers increase -- as they will very likely do over the next 5-6 years -- and then there is a new global temperature record in that period, climate change skeptics will blame it on the Sun. Timing is everything.
See post 41. Nonetheless, the main reason that the fairly impressive eruptions of Chaiten and Kasatochi haven't been prominent in major news coverage is due to the fact that they were in remote locations (way south Chile and the Aleutians and didn't threaten or close major U.S. military bases, as Pinatubo did.
(More later, the dentist calls....)
Plus, Pinatubo was in the tropics, aiding the global coverage of the sulfur aerosol.
Where did you see a VEI 6 or 7 estimate for Chaiten? While certainly not scientifically definitive, the site below puts it at 5.
Note that he ranks Chaiten with Hudson 1991 (not everyone remembers this one because Pinatubo was the same year). They were very similar. Here's the SO2 cloud from Hudson:
Hudson had a VEI 6-7 in the past; any of the Andean cordillera volcanoes all the way up to Mexico are capable of producing one, at any time.
....I remember in the ‘70’s....
In 1977, the water around Duck Island at Warrior’s Path State Park froze and you could walk across it. There were ice skaters. Temps below zero persisted for days.
It never happened before or since. (the lake was impounded in about 1953 and thus not possible before that year)
Sorry about the confusion, I was only talking about how high the plume was. Pinatubo was 20 miles, the volcano in Chile was 6 or 7. Your measurement is more precise, but I didn’t look that up.
Algore is on suicide watch - up his meds!
BTW, the two protospots have disappeared from the sun and the flux is still high. Looks like we’re still waiting for the cycle low.
Kudos to your husband for doing that!
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