Posted on 02/16/2009 9:11:44 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Heavy rain and mountain snows will shift southward over California Monday as a strong winter storm drifts toward shore.
The focus for drenching rain Monday will be in Southern California, from greater Los Angeles to San Diego. Amounts through Monday here will be a widespread 1-2 inches, with rainfall to 4 inches inundating the mountains and foothills, particularly the southward-facing slopes. Flooding is likely with this event, and mudslides possible, especially in recent burn areas. Some roads may become blocked with debris or completely washed out, and drivers should exercise caution.
Gusty winds will further complicate matters, downing trees where the soil becomes loose and increasing driving dangers on wet roadways.
In central and northern California, showers will follow on the heels of Sunday's steady rain. Rainfall of a half inch is possible in the San Francisco Bay area through the afternoon. Don't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder either, especially near the coast.
Snow levels will lower to near 3,000 feet in the Sierra Monday with significant snowfall totals during the day. Travel across I-80 will be extremely hazardous and slow going. Travel may become impossible for a time during the heaviest snow.
Snow will also fall in the mountains of Southern California, but significant snow should be held above the major passes during the day. Snowfall could be substantial through the Grapevine Monday night, however, as snow levels fall below 4,000 feet.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins.
mudslides - stay safe.
*********************EXCERPT**********************
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
I think the I5 is shutdown at Grapevine....report I watched was on KTLA.
Over an inch and a half here since yesterday..
lots of watches and warnings in the area here as well.
It's greyed up here, 30 miles east of Palm Springs...but only a stray dribble about 20 minutes ago. TV weather heads predict anywhere from a trace to 1/4"...Storm Watch, desert style.
--as I have bored us with before, when I was a kid on the farm in the late '40's, we got a radio in the barn--technology on the march.
--big seasonal news then from California was either mudslides or brushfires wiping out (gasp) $20,000 homes--a figure almost beyond our comprehension--
La Palma: Consistent 61Rain with an occasional heavier shower; nothing beyond moderate.
How do you know it is raining cats and dogs? Did you step in a poodle?
Sorry, I just HAD to do that!
....Bob
—hoping a bunch of it gets to Death Valley and Pahrump—I like to see a lake at Badwater and the big playas SW and NW of town—
More coming your way...but letting up here a bit...guess we got the same picture up...I went back to yesterday’s thread and borrowed your link...so thanks again.
Significant up here in Santa Cruz too. The dirt is getting very saturated, and mudslides are certainly something to watch for.
Enough already!
How are you getting those weather maps? I went to the site and could not get to that information; maybe it’s an ID-ten-T problem?
Western Snowfall Measured In Feet
**********************
Updated: Monday, February 16, 2009 11:47 AM
California will feel the brunt of a potent winter storm Monday with heavy rain in the lower elevations and significant snow for the mountains.
Widespread snowfall of 6-12 inches will extend along the length of the Sierra Nevada with amounts locally in excess of 3 feet above 5,000 to 6,000 feet. Travel on I-80 will be brought to a standstill, and that's not just a figure of speech... travel may become impossible for a time while the heaviest snow falls. Travel restrictions are already in place for those traveling from Reno to Applegate, Calif.
Much lower amounts, mostly 1-3 inches, will spread eastward over Nevada and northward over central and eastern Oregon. Areas of Montana and Idaho will also get an accumulation of snow, albeit light.
The mountains of Southern California will have snow levels gradually drop throughout the day, and snow will begin to fall along sections of I-5. The Grapevine will have snow accumulate into the evening hours, with several inches likely. Heavier snow will fall above the passes, with up to 2 feet possible above 5,000 to 6,000 feet. Gusty winds will complicate travel further with blowing snow and drifts across the highway.
Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins.
ROF!....
If you do see them and want to post an Image then use the right mouse button to get a menu and click on Copy image Location...then do the HTML posting....
It let up for a bit....wind gusts still coming and then it started up pretty good again...I bet we get the 2 inches they were calling for,....
There is also a 2% chance of tornadoes in the LA Basin per the Storm Prediction Center. A new Mesoscale Analysis was just issued:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PARTS OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN SWD ALONG THE
COAST TO NEAR OR N OF SAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161651Z - 161815Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE EXTENDING GENERALLY W-E FROM N OF CATALINA ISLAND EWD TO NEAR
RAL. TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED A SELY
DIRECTION...WHEREAS TO THE N WINDS BACK TO ENELY. LOCAL RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER-LAYER VERTICAL
VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST BY AN
APPARENT MESOSCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD INTO THE
LOS ANGELES METROPOLITAN AREA.
DESPITE THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE HAS
ENHANCED ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES
AND NWRN ORANGE COUNTIES TO JUST E OF CATALINA ISLAND. LOCAL VWPS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /25-40 KT/ ALONG
AND TO THE S OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO IN
ADDITION TO SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
FARTHER S...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG
FRONTAL BAND TO THE W/SW OF SAN WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING THIS
ACTIVITY ONSHORE TO THE N OF SAN BETWEEN 1800-1830Z. HERE TOO...THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED BY THE VERY MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
I want to see an awesome spring bloom in Death Valley.
—yep—we went over about half a dozen times to see it a few years ago—
We went in Spring of 05 and really enjoyed it. Stayed overnight and we’d like to do it again this year. Keeping an eye on the wildflower reports.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
*******************EXCERPT********************
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 161703Z - 162100Z OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ASCENT WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A S/W TROUGH PIVOTING EAST AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF THE NRN CA COAST. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE SIERRAS BY 21Z. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER TO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE PASSING WAVE...RESULTING IN TRAJECTORIES PERPENDICULAR TO MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL YIELD INCREASING ASCENT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRAS...GIVING WAY TO SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 4500 FT MSL OF 2-3 IN/HR BY 21Z. ..GARNER.. 02/16/2009 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
We’re socked in and getting a good soaking here in the Angeles National Forest southwest of Palmdale. There’s snow on the hilltops just above us, and the washes are running pretty strong.
LOL!
Nexrad Mixed Composite Radar Map
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=d1&size=2x&type=loop
Good luck, I got all kinds of standing water, pool is full ,, which is OK by me with rationing set for this summer
Can you predict storms and send them in to that site or is it they predict only.? ;-)
I see major storms on the horizon for the next 4 years.. Oh yeah.
Got to show this:
NWS/SPC Watch, Warning, Advisory Display
(Ten minute update. Click map for larger legacy graphic, click here for 5 min. warning summary.)
Go to the link above to see detail:
ROFL!
***************************
Looks like San Diego is getting some heavy stuff ....it's let up here for the moment....
Yes, a Nation-wide Katrina as the anti-business role of Obama's government expands. Mexico has better "weather" despite the gangland murders.
Went up to Lake Tahoe from Sacramento on Friday and then traveled back on Sunday mid day.
It turned a 2.5 hour drive into a 4.75 hour drive. There were more wrecks on Friday as apparently Californians forget what driving in heavy snow is like each year and have to be retrained by experience.
On Sunday there were some near white out conditions west of Trukee. The locals were expecting that Sunday morning through Tuesday morning they would gain another foot to two feet of snow in the Tahoe residential area with more on the slopes.
LOL!!!!!
No problem...that one's on my favorites and gets a peek just about every morning.
It's 11:45 am, and I'd say it was almost two hours ago it started to rain a bit; now it's light-steady with maybe a couple of tenths....all the local stations will have their "Danger Boy reporters" doing their afternoon broadcasts from flooded Indio intersections.
Well first the I-5 was/is closed at the Grapevine near Fraser Park...don’t know about the I-15...if closed it would be southwest of Victorville...on the Cajon Summit...could be that it is....
Still got a strong offshore low, eh?
You have a graphic of the East coast...but your article is on SoCal??
I am confused.....
They can avoid the Tajon Pass by going across to south of Bakersfield and taking the State highway 158 I think... that goes to Barstow...
They can find several alternate routes to get across to routes to (for example ) Yucca Valley then south to Palm Springs....
Accuweather has changed the graphics again I see.....
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