Skip to comments.Rally monkey or a dead cat?
Posted on 03/10/2009 6:32:14 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
You decide. (Note, the DJIA currently ahead +321.22 points).
(Excerpt) Read more at ftalphaville.ft.com ...
I can see a reason to buy in, but I think something is coming that will shock the markets. A world type event.... some kind of conflict.
Dead as they come
Dead as they come
I believe it is another dead cat!
Dead as a doorknob. Wait until the socialists push for cap and trade, “card check”, more pork, etc. We have at least two years rough waters.
Too many reasons to not buy back in one is the exogenous events like Iran becoming a nuclear power, The administrations war on business, etc.
if it goes up I will sell , not buy more.
I’m of the opinion that the market was oversold the past two weeks, plus it was boosted by Citi’s statement that they are actually earning a profit, that the government may eliminate mark-to-market accounting rules, and they may reinstate the uptick rule.
Today was a great rally, but I still think we’re in a bear market, given that the rest of the economic news remains abysmal.
For me, it’s simple.
There was no fundamental reason for a 320 point rally. Nothing has changed. Nothing at all.
Won’t even take a catastrophic event to plunge it. Crappy corporate earnings will be enough.
Dead cat in Phase 2.
Tiger... my cat is simply aghast.
It’s dead alright, and it’s bouncing on a trampoline!
they believed CitiBank was profitable, they thought the bank problems were over.... but Citi forgot to mention the whole story.
The Rally Monkey frowns upon your shenanigans.
ROTFLMAO at your Pic and tag line!
My rationale for getting out wasn’t just a business-hating government, but concern for what the market will do when we’re attacked again, or Russia invades Poland, or Iran attacks Iraq, or Pakistan invades Afghanistan...
When the government is run by total buffoons, it isn’t time to jump back in. And if I lose money because of it, so be it.
Dead as they come
I went to cash last spring when I realized that Baraq had a plausible shot at POTUS.
Now I’m going Galt.
I call it a dead cat.
The lows will be tested. Volume will dictate the nature of it.
Its worth posting twice...
Ya’at’eeh my friend. :)
More dead cat than other.
The market is selling on fear and the increasing knowledge by more people that we are screwed (the economic fundamentals are simply terrible going forward 12-60 months). But these people are still brainwashed to “buy the dips”. The markets have gone down hard this year and very hard the past 3 weeks. People simply EXPECT a rally and at some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.
I was tempted to get in myself because it has become crystal clear a rally had to occur at some point, but this market is so screwy, I just didn’t have the nerve to commit to going long. I could easily the markets on a long, slow slide to 550 and I just didn’t want to get caught in that potential slide.
Rallys like this are caused by professional investors thinking “oh come on, it can’t keep going down like this. It just can’t. It has to turn around sometime, even if only for an intermediate rally.”
Call this self-fulfilling prophesy. I have no clue how high we go but I’ll be surprised if we see 800 on the S&P. I’m sure I’ll be corrected by the pros who are predicting that we retrace 1/2 our losses. I can’t see it.
The parade of bad news will keep coming and a rally will not be sustainable. Fear will return.
I thought it was key today when Meredith Whitney was talking to Maria Fartaroma saying “Citi’s operating profit in the first 2 quarters, didn’t count writedowns”. OK, so I got a $500 a month raise, but that didn’t count that my taxes went up $1,000 a month. Same difference. But hey, I’m EARNING so much more now!!
People are looking for an excuse to be hopeful. Some very quick traders will make a nice killing in this rally. Most pros and all amateurs will get slaughtered going long.
Oh well... Here kitty, kitty.
Call me when the DOW hits 720 so I can buy back in.
Isn’t today’s rally just because Citibank went from total crap to so-so ca-ca? And just because the geek who runs it made a few positive statements, probably about projections on how much more Citibank’s new credit card fees and interest are going to make them a lot more money (if people actually do find a way to pay their bills)?
AWESOME. THANK YOU.
I think today’s rally was because the votes aren’t there to pass the empty suit’s budget.
What you said...
You’re correct - dead cat bounce entirely. C’s news wasn’t positive enough to justify this irrational rally. Markets will see more bear rallies as they figure out that Obama-Geitne don’t have a clue about solutions for this mess.
I’m still buying though and will do so all the way down - long 20-year buy n hold gamble.
You’re welcome. I came across that today while doing some research.
good post...about the only one so far on the usual FR “Dow hits zero” refrain
i actually think some FReepers would like that....
and I don’t think many FReepers do much investing nor a lot of business period..not entreprenuership anyhow
I’m out of the market....i make more money doing what I do..when it doesn’t rain
though...buying back in might be good at some time...not just yet for me
i would prefer to see equities languish next 18 months so we can get back some power mid term
I agree with you that there’s nothing really to cause this “up-tick”, but I can see how the market may be making gains by shifting investments, not by business as usual.
For instance, if we’re seeing shares in banks and American automotive companies drop, but shares of other, recession-resistant companies (Wal-mart) rise, then what we’re experiencing is the market making lemons out of lemon-aid and investors thinking their way through the problem.
However, if the whole market really has gone up on one positive report from Citi, then this is an emotional play and most assuredly a “dead cat”.
For the unlucky few who’ve ridden this nightmare to the bottom, there might be a good opportunity to cash out in the near future.
Is Citi counting bailout money as “income”? Could that be why they “made money” last month?
Ya’at’eh indeed. Pleased to meet you. Hah’tish bah’nah’naa? (What are you doing?) Good to meet you, a fellow native here.