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Rally monkey or a dead cat?
FT Alphaville ^ | 03/10/09

Posted on 03/10/2009 6:32:14 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster

Rally monkey or a dead cat?

Posted by Tracy Alloway on Mar 10 17:56.

You decide. (Note, the DJIA currently ahead +321.22 points).

Monkey rally or a dead cat bounce?


(Excerpt) Read more at ftalphaville.ft.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Humor
KEYWORDS: bounce; stockmarket

1 posted on 03/10/2009 6:32:14 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 03/10/2009 6:32:52 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (from "Irrational Exuberance" to "Mark to Zero": from '96 to '09)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

http://www.earlthedeadcat.org/


3 posted on 03/10/2009 6:34:27 PM PDT by Fast Moving Angel (There are no points for second place.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I can see a reason to buy in, but I think something is coming that will shock the markets. A world type event.... some kind of conflict.


4 posted on 03/10/2009 6:35:21 PM PDT by refermech
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Dead as they come


5 posted on 03/10/2009 6:35:32 PM PDT by clamper1797 (Zero parcus dies Nero Totus hail FUBO)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Dead as they come


6 posted on 03/10/2009 6:35:34 PM PDT by clamper1797 (Zero parcus dies Nero Totus hail FUBO)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I believe it is another dead cat!


7 posted on 03/10/2009 6:36:08 PM PDT by classified
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Dead as a doorknob. Wait until the socialists push for cap and trade, “card check”, more pork, etc. We have at least two years rough waters.


8 posted on 03/10/2009 6:38:54 PM PDT by bigcat32
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To: refermech

Too many reasons to not buy back in one is the exogenous events like Iran becoming a nuclear power, The administrations war on business, etc.
if it goes up I will sell , not buy more.


9 posted on 03/10/2009 6:39:13 PM PDT by omega4179 (Look out below! Thanks Obamanomics.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster; All

I’m of the opinion that the market was oversold the past two weeks, plus it was boosted by Citi’s statement that they are actually earning a profit, that the government may eliminate mark-to-market accounting rules, and they may reinstate the uptick rule.

Today was a great rally, but I still think we’re in a bear market, given that the rest of the economic news remains abysmal.


10 posted on 03/10/2009 6:41:13 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: TigerLikesRooster

For me, it’s simple.

There was no fundamental reason for a 320 point rally. Nothing has changed. Nothing at all.

Won’t even take a catastrophic event to plunge it. Crappy corporate earnings will be enough.


11 posted on 03/10/2009 6:42:08 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Party? I don't have one anymore.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

http://www.charlestonrealestateguide.com/frpt/


12 posted on 03/10/2009 6:42:28 PM PDT by Vn_survivor_67-68 (CALL CONGRESSCRITTERS TOLL-FREE @ 1-800-965-4701)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1XTBESG4BQ

Dead cat in Phase 2.


13 posted on 03/10/2009 6:44:49 PM PDT by Danae (Amerikan Unity My Ass)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Tiger... my cat is simply aghast.


14 posted on 03/10/2009 6:45:35 PM PDT by pointsal
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To: classified

It’s dead alright, and it’s bouncing on a trampoline!


15 posted on 03/10/2009 6:47:16 PM PDT by jwparkerjr (God Bless America!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

they believed CitiBank was profitable, they thought the bank problems were over.... but Citi forgot to mention the whole story.


16 posted on 03/10/2009 6:47:20 PM PDT by GeronL (Will bankrupting America lead to socialism?)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

The Rally Monkey frowns upon your shenanigans.


17 posted on 03/10/2009 6:48:54 PM PDT by RichInOC ("And Shiva spake and said, 'TOUCH my monkey! LOVE him!'")
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To: RichInOC

ROTFLMAO at your Pic and tag line!


18 posted on 03/10/2009 6:53:10 PM PDT by Danae (Amerikan Unity My Ass)
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To: Nervous Tick

My rationale for getting out wasn’t just a business-hating government, but concern for what the market will do when we’re attacked again, or Russia invades Poland, or Iran attacks Iraq, or Pakistan invades Afghanistan...

When the government is run by total buffoons, it isn’t time to jump back in. And if I lose money because of it, so be it.


19 posted on 03/10/2009 6:56:34 PM PDT by Mr Rogers (Obama - Making Jimmy Carter look like a giant!)
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To: clamper1797

Dead as they come

20 posted on 03/10/2009 6:58:02 PM PDT by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I went to cash last spring when I realized that Baraq had a plausible shot at POTUS.
Now I’m going Galt.
I call it a dead cat.


21 posted on 03/10/2009 7:02:03 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: TigerLikesRooster

The lows will be tested. Volume will dictate the nature of it.


22 posted on 03/10/2009 7:10:03 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (No prisoners. No mercy. 2010 awaits.....)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
It's dead Jim...

23 posted on 03/10/2009 7:11:35 PM PDT by TSgt (Extreme vitriol and rancorous replies served daily. - Mike W USAF)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Funny Pictures
24 posted on 03/10/2009 7:19:15 PM PDT by Redcitizen (The Death Star is the ultimate in peacekeeping.)
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To: MikeWUSAF

Its worth posting twice...


25 posted on 03/10/2009 7:20:54 PM PDT by Redcitizen (The Death Star is the ultimate in peacekeeping.)
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To: Redcitizen

Ya’at’eeh my friend. :)

1/8 Cherokee


26 posted on 03/10/2009 7:27:38 PM PDT by TSgt (Extreme vitriol and rancorous replies served daily. - Mike W USAF)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

More dead cat than other.

The market is selling on fear and the increasing knowledge by more people that we are screwed (the economic fundamentals are simply terrible going forward 12-60 months). But these people are still brainwashed to “buy the dips”. The markets have gone down hard this year and very hard the past 3 weeks. People simply EXPECT a rally and at some point it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I was tempted to get in myself because it has become crystal clear a rally had to occur at some point, but this market is so screwy, I just didn’t have the nerve to commit to going long. I could easily the markets on a long, slow slide to 550 and I just didn’t want to get caught in that potential slide.

Rallys like this are caused by professional investors thinking “oh come on, it can’t keep going down like this. It just can’t. It has to turn around sometime, even if only for an intermediate rally.”

Call this self-fulfilling prophesy. I have no clue how high we go but I’ll be surprised if we see 800 on the S&P. I’m sure I’ll be corrected by the pros who are predicting that we retrace 1/2 our losses. I can’t see it.

The parade of bad news will keep coming and a rally will not be sustainable. Fear will return.

I thought it was key today when Meredith Whitney was talking to Maria Fartaroma saying “Citi’s operating profit in the first 2 quarters, didn’t count writedowns”. OK, so I got a $500 a month raise, but that didn’t count that my taxes went up $1,000 a month. Same difference. But hey, I’m EARNING so much more now!!

People are looking for an excuse to be hopeful. Some very quick traders will make a nice killing in this rally. Most pros and all amateurs will get slaughtered going long.

Oh well... Here kitty, kitty.


27 posted on 03/10/2009 8:50:33 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Depression Countdown: 58... 57... 56...)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
“1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators”

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

28 posted on 03/10/2009 9:10:02 PM PDT by 444Flyer (Don't beLIEve Obama.............................Never give up, never give in, never give out!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Dead cat.
Call me when the DOW hits 720 so I can buy back in.


29 posted on 03/10/2009 9:17:11 PM PDT by Chewbacca (Buy gold and silver coins to profit from the comming dollar melt down!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Isn’t today’s rally just because Citibank went from total crap to so-so ca-ca? And just because the geek who runs it made a few positive statements, probably about projections on how much more Citibank’s new credit card fees and interest are going to make them a lot more money (if people actually do find a way to pay their bills)?


30 posted on 03/10/2009 9:24:00 PM PDT by hunter112 (SHRUG - Stop Hussein's Radical Utopian Gameplan!)
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To: 444Flyer

AWESOME. THANK YOU.


31 posted on 03/10/2009 9:27:39 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Depression Countdown: 58... 57... 56...)
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To: hunter112

I think today’s rally was because the votes aren’t there to pass the empty suit’s budget.


32 posted on 03/10/2009 9:31:44 PM PDT by zeebee
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To: Nervous Tick
There was no fundamental reason for a 320 point rally. Nothing has changed. Nothing at all.

What you said...

33 posted on 03/10/2009 10:22:08 PM PDT by politicket (1 1/2 million attended Obama's coronation - only 14 missed work!)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

You’re correct - dead cat bounce entirely. C’s news wasn’t positive enough to justify this irrational rally. Markets will see more bear rallies as they figure out that Obama-Geitne don’t have a clue about solutions for this mess.

I’m still buying though and will do so all the way down - long 20-year buy n hold gamble.


34 posted on 03/10/2009 11:46:16 PM PDT by indcons (An eye for an eye; a tooth for a tooth.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

You’re welcome. I came across that today while doing some research.


35 posted on 03/10/2009 11:53:26 PM PDT by 444Flyer (Don't beLIEve Obama.............................Never give up, never give in, never give out!)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

good post...about the only one so far on the usual FR “Dow hits zero” refrain

i actually think some FReepers would like that....

and I don’t think many FReepers do much investing nor a lot of business period..not entreprenuership anyhow

I’m out of the market....i make more money doing what I do..when it doesn’t rain

though...buying back in might be good at some time...not just yet for me

i would prefer to see equities languish next 18 months so we can get back some power mid term


36 posted on 03/11/2009 12:02:06 AM PDT by wardaddy
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To: Nervous Tick

I agree with you that there’s nothing really to cause this “up-tick”, but I can see how the market may be making gains by shifting investments, not by business as usual.

For instance, if we’re seeing shares in banks and American automotive companies drop, but shares of other, recession-resistant companies (Wal-mart) rise, then what we’re experiencing is the market making lemons out of lemon-aid and investors thinking their way through the problem.

However, if the whole market really has gone up on one positive report from Citi, then this is an emotional play and most assuredly a “dead cat”.

For the unlucky few who’ve ridden this nightmare to the bottom, there might be a good opportunity to cash out in the near future.


37 posted on 03/11/2009 5:42:58 AM PDT by Marie ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: hunter112

Is Citi counting bailout money as “income”? Could that be why they “made money” last month?


38 posted on 03/11/2009 6:07:47 AM PDT by Marie ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: MikeWUSAF

Ya’at’eh indeed. Pleased to meet you. Hah’tish bah’nah’naa? (What are you doing?) Good to meet you, a fellow native here.


39 posted on 03/11/2009 5:36:01 PM PDT by Redcitizen (The Death Star is the ultimate in peacekeeping.)
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