Skip to comments.Dull Sun could spark off next “Little Ice Age” in future
Posted on 05/10/2009 7:05:20 PM PDT by Signalman
Washington, May 5 (ANI): Some scientists say the prolonged lull in solar activity hints towards the next Little Ice Age, which could occur in the near future.
The sun is the least active its been in decades and the dimmest in a hundred years.
The lull is causing some scientists to recall the Little Ice Age, an unusual cold spell in Europe and North America, which lasted from about 1300 to 1850.
The coldest period of the Little Ice Age, between 1645 and 1715, has been linked to a deep dip in solar storms known as the Maunder Minimum.
During that time, access to Greenland was largely cut off by ice, and canals in Holland routinely froze solid.
Glaciers in the Alps engulfed whole villages, and sea ice increased so much that no open water flowed around Iceland in the year 1695.
For hundreds of years, scientists have used the number of observable sunspots to trace the suns roughly 11-year cycles of activity.
Sunspots, which can be visible without a telescope, are dark regions that indicate intense magnetic activity on the suns surface.
Such solar storms send bursts of charged particles hurtling toward Earth that can spark auroras, disrupt satellites, and even knock out electrical grids.
In the current cycle, 2008 was supposed to have been the low point, and this year the sunspot numbers should have begun to climb.
But of the first 90 days of 2009, 78 have been sunspot free. Researchers also say the sun is the dimmest its been in a hundred years.
The Maunder Minimum corresponded to a profound lull in sunspots. Astronomers at the time recorded just 50 in a 30-year period.
If the sun again sinks into a similar depression, at least one preliminary model has suggested that cool spots could crop up in regions of Europe, the United States, and Siberia.
According to Jeffrey Hall, an astronomer and associate director at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, during the previous event, though, many parts of the world were not affected at all.
Even a grand minimum like that was not having a global effect, he said.
Scientists say that even if the current solar lull is the beginning of a prolonged quiet, the stars effects on climate will pale in contrast with the influence of human-made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). (ANI)
All part of a Bush/Rove/Cheney/Limbaugh plot to stave off global warming and make Algore look like an idiot...
So, global warming would be a GOOD thing then?
God sure works in mysterious ways!
I’m going to get me a hummer and take off all the pollution control crap and drive it everywhere. I’m doing it for the planet, you know.
that last sentence is a LOL
Brilliant scientists, these Warmists. They can predict the ocean depth a century in the future due to warming, but can’t predict cooling, until a decade after it has started.
It’s not enough we gotta come up with cold fusion, jet packs, and robot mates.
Now we gotta start on artificial sun spots!
Can we come up with a tax for this?
Yes we can
But not Canada.
see that tiny blue dot in the center of the box?
cow farts and other carbon emissions make more difference in the climate than that...sun
What happened to “Global Warming”?
Yeah—why would cool spots show up in the US and not Canada?
I fixed it in post 14....unbelievable.
Who's buying that one?
LOL...... Our little bacteria life spans and effects compared to that ancient giant fusion reactor. Riiiiiiight.....
Cool pic. I’m told by an old timer here in western N.C. that when he was a boy (in the 30’s) everybody he knew had a pair of ice skates. Could happen again.
I believe these scientists are a bit like Lying Louis the old time weather reporter who looked out the window before he gave his report.
It mutated into "Climate Change."
Get yr sunspots (or lack of them) here on a daily basis http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/
Good until the last sentence.....CO2 IS STRONGER THAN THE SUN...
get up at sunrise.....notice the Temperature....watch the Sun rise...wait 3 hrs ....notice the Temperature rise.
Repeat until you are smarter than a 5th grader.
Noticed that. Check the source: “Scientists say”.
I think the latest mutation is "Climate Crisis".
TRANSLATION: Even though the Sun may be on the verge of causing a new Little Ice Age, that doesn't mean us evil humans aren't screwing up the environment.
They must have realized that the Sun was making the Goracle, and his delusional followers, look bad.
Welcome to Minnesota!
and the White House won’t be cool until about another 4 yrs, when the election votes out the hot air.
1. The solar flares diminished and caused a mini ice age (average drop of what, 3-8 degrees C? — see Little Ice Age Wikipedia).
2. The solar flares returned and warmed up the entire planet to our current condition (an average increase of what 3-8 degrees C?).
3. But it was man's activity in the last 100 years that really warmed up the planet (by .7 degrees C).
4. If the solar activity remains low (risking a drop of what 10 degrees?), the planet will still stay warm because of man's activity (a net decrease of possibly 8.3 degrees?)??
In the future he**! The little ice age happened in one summer, suddenly without warning. It is a matter of written record, of course records were not as good then I would not think but if they think it will take 100 years to reach a little ice age again they had better get ready, we are already headed that way from the looks of the weather we had this winter, and are still getting somewhat, in Northern CA.
IOW, why let facts get in the way of agenda?
I remember in the mid 1980's when I was in high school all the enviromental fanatics had their bumper stickers warning of the coming ice age....
Then the past several years of the coming global warming...from the same useful idiots.
Again...proof...never let facts interfere with Agenda...
"The Year Without a Summer (also known as the Poverty Year, Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death, and the Year There Was No Summer) was 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities destroyed crops in Northern Europe, the American Northeast and eastern Canada. Historian John D. Post has called this "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world". It appears to have been caused by a volcanic winter."
Good point. NewSpeak is constantly evolving.
How does he know?
Nobody seems to be talking about the possibility we're really approaching a "Big Ice Age."
For the last few million years the earth's climate has consisted of roughly 100k year long ice ages, interspersed with roughly 10,000 year long interglacial periods.
We're about 12,000 years into the present interglacial. Why couldn't the present cooling be the start of something really big?
What if man's present carbon contribution to the atmosphere is actually delaying the start of the next ice age?
hmmm just normal cycles...like we were all taught in school...well except al gores school....
Thank God we’re creating a little warming now.
The “Little Ice Age” WAS world wide, as nearly every study since 2000 has demonstrated. It appears to have been on the order of 2-3F cooler (an 8C drop would be major Ice Age territory.) Earlier data was somewhat questionable, but now that it we realize that Bristle-Cone pine studies are of no use to serve as temperature proxies, it is very clear that both the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age were world wide events. See Junk Science, and Anthony Watts’ sites for the data. The “scientist” cited in this article has not kept up with the field. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Wikipedia:Little_ice_age includes references to some of the evidence for this, but is by no means definitive.
Quite a few scientists have stated things like “the next Ice Age could start any century now”. I agree with that. We are quite overdue, thank goodness, as can be seen from temperature graphs using ice core proxies. I suspect that being ‘overdue’ will simply mean that the fall in temperatures early will occur more rapidly. However, that is MERE opinion, and based on nothing I would call science, but simply history. The reason we may be “overdue” likely stems primarily from man’s changing the albedo of the planet a bit due to agriculture, and the Sun being quite warm, until the last decade. I hope it continues being warm.
As far as the Sun’s role: This article- http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html -shows that there is a correlation in Solar Cycle length with Earth temperature. It amounts to -0.1C every 4months the Solar Cycle is longer. During the years 1944-May’96 the cycle averaged 125months. If the current “Dec’08 Minimum” ends up being accurate, Solar Cycle 23 will have lasted 151months... This would imply a (151-125)/(4mo/0.1C) = 0.65C lower than the last half of the 20th Century SIMPLY DUE to the Sun’s activity.
If this comes to pass during this coming 5-10 years, the global temperatures will virtually be the same as they were in the early 1900s.
Time, and the data will tell the truth here. I see no reason to hype anything until we see what that truth is.
Back when I was a youth the rising CO2 levels were thought to indicate a coming ice age.....................
Spotless years & Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
the April number for AMO is not out yet, but AMO has dipped negitive January, Feb. and March
-yeah, if the sun went totally quiet, according to this, we would still have gorebull warming, all because of man-made CO2, which is less then 1% of a trace gas!