Borel, Rachel Alexandra set for Preakness

Thoroughbred Times ^ | May 15, 2009 | Jeff Lowe

[gate2wire]

However you score it, Calvin Borel is the central human figure in the $1.1-million Blackberry Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course.

Whether he played his moves right will be obvious at about 6:17 p.m. EDT.

Borel will be under the microscope after making the unprecedented decision to jump off Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) winner Mine That Bird and ride Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Rachel Alexandra instead in the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown

Borel was not battling any second thoughts on Friday.

“It’s a good position to be in,” Borel said. “Like I said all along, I think she’s the best horse in the country, and I’m not going to go back on my word.”

Borel said as much before Mine That Bird had even finished cooling out after his stunning win in the Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs. Presented with a hypothetical choice between riding Mine That Bird or Rachel Alexandra, Borel said he would have to choose the filly.

Before that pick became a reality, Borel did not know for sure that it was his decision to make after Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick purchased Rachel Alexandra privately four days after the Oaks.

[gate2wire]

May 16, $1,100,000, 3yo, 1 3/16M, Pimlico Race Course, 6:15 PM ET
Post Horse Sire Weight Jockey Trainer
1 Big Drama 3, c. Montbrook 126 John Velazquez David Fawkes
2 Mine That Bird 3, g. Birdstone 126 Mike Smith Bennie Woolley, Jr.
3 Musket Man 3, c. Yonaguska 126 Eibar Coa Derek Ryan
4 Luv Gov 3, c. Ten Most Wanted 126 Jamie Theriot D. Lukas
5 Friesan Fire 3, c. A.P. Indy 126 Gabriel Saez J. Jones
6 Terrain 3, g. Sky Mesa 126 Jeremy Rose Albert Stall, Jr.
7 Papa Clem 3, c. Smart Strike 126 Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute
8 General Quarters 3, c. Sky Mesa 126 Julien Leparoux Thomas McCarthy
9 Pioneerof the Nile 3, c. Empire Maker 126 Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert
10 Flying Private 3, c. Fusaichi Pegasus 126 Alan Garcia D. Lukas
11 Take the Points 3, c. Even the Score 126 Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher
12 Tone It Down 3, c. Medaglia d'Oro 126 Kent Desormeaux William Komlo
13 Rachel Alexandra 3, f. Medaglia d'Oro

[gate2wire]

PREAKNESS EARLY BETTING

1. Big Drama - 9-1

2. Mine That Bird - 7-1

3. Musket Man - 18-1

4. Luv Gov - 25-1

5. Friesan Fire - 8-1

6. Terrain - 25-1

7. Papa Clem - 14-1

8. General Quarters - 17-1

9. Pioneerof the Nile - 7-1

10. Flying Private - 25-1

11. Take the Points - 14-1

12. Tone It Down - 19-1

13. Rachel Alexandra - 3-2

[gate2wire]

If FF is anywhere near 8-1 near post time, I will bet everything I have...everything I have left that is...

[ETL]

Thanks for the ping. Here again is some important race info:

***Free Past Performances for Preakness (pdf file - 743 KB):
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=PIM&rd=05/16/2009&cty=USA&de=D&rn=12
________________________________________

Video of Preakness contenders’ prior races and other info here:
http://www.preakness.com/raceInfo
________________________________________

National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA):
http://www.ntra.com/races.aspx?id=37073&section=races
________________________________________

More info here: ESPN website
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/index
________________________________________

YouTube video of Rachel Alexandra winning the Kentucky Oaks (filly equivalent of Kentucky Derby)... by 20 lengths!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8b8lmbwVnA

[ETL]

If FF is anywhere near 8-1 near post time, I will bet everything I have...

If he is, he'll almost certainly return $5 or more to show. That's $500 back for a $200 show bet ($300 profit). That's not bad. The horse should definitely put in a much better performance today.

[ETL]

I’m thinking of playing a few exactas with the fav on top. In a large field such as this, just about any exacta should pay well, even with a 7-5 fav on top ($40 or more).

[gate2wire]

Payoffs are normally inflated on Preakness day. Good day to try to hit some big ones.
7th race has a strong fav to single in pk 3s and 4s. #8 Dynaforce.

[ETL]

Payoffs are normally inflated on Preakness day. Good day to try to hit some big ones.

Not just the Preakness, but any of the Triple Crown races. It's because millions of people who don't normally play the horses are out in full force, basing their selections on every conceivable reason except the logical ones. This brings up the odds on the serious contenders.

[ml/nj]

I'll also be going back to FF. MTB, PotN, and RA would seem to be the other contenders in my order of BETTING preference.

ML/NJ

[gate2wire]

Okay, here we go...don’t have scratches yet so this could change...

1st Pimlico 8 w 2,4
2nd Pim Entry w 3,5
7th Pim 8 w 2,6,7
12th Pim if odds are anywhere near current(which I doubt) win bets on 1 and 5. Too many exotics to mention.

9 Cby 5 w 7,8

1 CD 5 w 2,3

3 Del 1 w 2,5
8 Del 5 w 1,8

7 Mth 5 w 8,10

Gotta go...good luck everyone.

[penowa]

Can't believe FF will be longer than 5-1, but it's possible after the Derby.

Big Drama cast in his stall early this morning, but other than a ding on his foot, no serious damage. Not a good thing any day, but a BAD thing to happen on race day.

[PGalt]

Thanks for the early betting line. I might try to get to a track this afternoon.

[Matchett-PI]

bttt

[ETL]

Free Past Performances for the entire Preakness field here (FREE!, no strings attached. Click and it's there):
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=PIM&rd=05/16/2009&cty=USA&de=D&rn=12

[jla]

I'm staying with Pioneerof the Nile, along with Big Drama.
Would bet the filly but odds will be too low.
Good luck today with F. Fire, gate2wire.

[spectre]

Borel made it clear that he was going to ride the filly in the Preakness BEFORE he won the Derby.

"Borel will be the first rider to leave a Derby champion at the Preakness in favor of another starter, brilliant filly Rachel Alexandra.

May 1, the day before the Derby, Borel rode her to a 20¼-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, a race for fillies. Borel said afterward that the filly was faster than any of the colts in the Derby field, and the oddsmaker agrees...snip

[ETL]

He also said that the decision to ride RA (over MTB) was a “no brainer”. That the only way he could lose the Preakness was to fall off the horse. (his words)

[supremedoctrine]

I have smallish win bets on Musket Man, Papa Clem and Take the Points. Neither Mine that Bird or Rachel Alex figure prominently into any of my superfecta bets.
I expect PioneeroftheNile or Musket Man to win.
They’ve been either knocking at the door or winning their entire short careers, esp. Musket Man.
There are only about 3 horses that can be eliminated from superfecta consideration though, and that leaves ten/
I was quite surprised when I finally was able to read the official Sat. Preakness edition of todays DRF , and see how many expert handicappers put this new shooter Big Drama on top. So, impressionable dolt that I am I put him on top in a few dollar supers. Gonna be a great race, and all eyes are going to be on both Borel and Rachel, and Smith and Bird, as they both disappoint. (But I am not so sure Smith will disappoint, he could do it, but like I saId before I fully expect the rail to be NO TRESPASSING territory for the entire race, as a half dozen horses “claim” it. Good luck to all .

[PGalt]

OK I got to the local track (it was packed), and lost a race at Hoosier (-30), won a race at Churchill (+10), won a race at Woodbine (+44).

Then I bet the Preakness and left. I’ve got $5 pefectas Rachel Alexandra over Big Drama, Mine That Bird, Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters and Pioneer of the Nile. I’ve also got each of those bets reversed in the perfecta for $2.

[NautiNurse]

I had the good fortune to see Rachel Alexandra win big in the KY Oaks. She is an amazing horse, and with Borel at the reigns again, they’ll be my pick for a solid win in the Preakness.

[Matchett-PI]

Safe trip to all horses and riders.

May the best horse win! And may all here win lots of money! bttt

[Eagles2003]

Preakness Day is amateur day at Pimlico, and who knows if the track will stay open. There’s two bidders so far for the tracks, only one wants to keep racing in MD.

My second choice is Big Drama, the fillie has the highest Ultimate PPs Prime Power number. I didn’t read the racing form or any other sources before making my picks. I’m not betting this race, didn’t even bet any other races.

I went to the Preakness for over 20 years with a group that included an excellent horseplayer from NYC who favored Belmont. The Preakness day was a big event for him, great overlays and a betting public skewing odds to his advantage more often than not.

I won’t even go into Baltimore city anymore, it’s dangerous, dirty and corrupt. Probably the only day it’s safe around Pimlico is Preakness day.

[spectre]

Riders UP!

Here we go!

[SomeCallMeTim]

Hope they all run safe... I’m betting it ALL on Rachel.

I know, she has a lot of knocks against her, and if she pulls up at the end, I’ll feel stupid... But, I think she is a special horse..

I have her to win, and exacta wheeled, and tri-wheeled...

Oh please... run girl run!!

[i_dont_chat]

Rachel Alexandra — You go, girl!

Great race.

Mind that bird #2.

[spectre]

Congratulations Tim!!

If I was over to Oaklawn, I'd have bet on her too :(

sw

[Matchett-PI]

WHAT a race!!! Mine That Bird coming from dead last to run second. One wonders if the jockey would have made a difference.

[spectre]

I think if Rachael hadn't been ridden by Borel, she wouldn't have won. Mine that Bird operates on automatic :)

sw

[eleni121]

If Burell were riding him he would have won.

What a great horse - Mine that bird

[spectre]

Agree..

[PGalt]

WOOOOHOOOO! Way to go Rachel Alexandra!

GRRRRREAT filly running a GRRRRREAT race!

GRRRREAT ride Calvin Borel!

[flintsilver7]

Doubtful. Mine That Bird is a horse that has unbelievable sprinting speed. If he had any room to run, he would’ve won by two lengths. He had to go all the way outside and still pulled to within a length. At the Derby, he had the inside with no obstacles, which is about all you can ask for. Here, he had no such opening.

Rachel Alexandra is a pretty special horse, leading wire-to-wire when it looked like she clearly was not running her best. I’m impressed.

[PGalt]

Good call Tim.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I love watching Mine That Bird come from the back like before. What a horse! Flying low to the ground like a rocket. RA is a beautiful horse and did great. Jockey said she was struggling.

[DainBramage]

5 more yards and it would have been different race.

[flintsilver7]

This just goes to show you that a jockey can do significantly more to lose a race than to win it. Horses win races. Mine That Bird simply didn’t have that opening he had at Churchill yet still came very close to winning.

[spectre]

MTB is my favorite. He's got a lot of heart.

I heard Borel say RA wasn't on her best game today. She came close to getting beat, IMHO.

If they're both in the Belmont, it's going to be exciting.

[DainBramage]

Yep, but I think the jockey that road mine that bird could have started to the front sooner and might have won.

[flintsilver7]

Borel didn’t do much today, which I think is good. Big Brown last year suffered from a terrible ride in the Belmont because Desormeaux tried to do too much. You have a good horse, you let them do their thing. This is in my opinion why Rachel Alexandra still won.

As for Mine That Bird, it’s hard to say. He did the same thing he did at the Derby, but he had to go all the way outside. Without seeing an overhead view, it’s hard to say if he would’ve had an opening regardless of the jockey. Then again, you could make the claim that he should’ve started sooner. This would’ve meant a win for sure since he was still gaining at the finish. It’s all a guessing game at this point.

[supremedoctrine]

Jockey wouldn’t have made any difference, and it’s amazing MTB even got second, considering the strategy I anticipated on one of these threads a few days ago, that half the field were going to make a point of monopolizing the rail so MTB and Smith couldn’t use it. He had to come out, swing wide, and closed REALLY well. I was only right about Musket Man, though, but none of the horses I really liked were disgraced by back of the pack finishes. Pioneerof the Nile did finish far back though.Surprising.
Great race,this Rachel looks awesome, even more so considering Borel said he felt she wasn’t handling the track very well, but won anyway.

[flintsilver7]

Great race,this Rachel looks awesome, even more so considering Borel said he felt she wasn’t handling the track very well, but won anyway.

Great point. This in my opinion marks Borel's status as a good jockey. The sign of a great horse is that they can win when they aren't on their game. Rachel Alexandra held on pretty much wire to wire, which is impressive given she wasn't 100%. This is in sharp contrast to the Belmont last year, when Big Brown wasn't 100% yet easily could've won had the jockey not ruined him by the half-mile marker.

[mickie]

I don't think Rachel can do mile and a half.
Sounds like Jackson wants to breed her.

I love MTB.

[Proverbs 3-5]

If the horse that wins the KY Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont wins Triple Crown, even with different riders, is there an honor for a jockey that wins all three races even if on different horses?

[ETL]

I had $300 to bet on the race. So I put $200 to win on RA (the winner, #13). She returned $5.60 to win for a profit of $360.00. I also bet five $20 exactas with the winner on top. Mine That Bird (#2) cost me $520 by running second! I had a $20 exacta with RA and the horse that ran third (Musket Man, #3). The exacta would have paid 52.00. That's $520 on a $20 bet! But I can't complain, I'm still up $260 on the race.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Here is a replay of the Kentucky Derby when MTB won. Just got to “Mine That Bird Gallery” on the right and click on the right play button.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contenders/mine-bird

[ETL]

Rachel Alexandra held on pretty much wire to wire, which is impressive given she wasn't 100%.

They went the first quarter in a very quick 23 seconds flat. That's normally way too fast for a long race like the 1-3/16th mile Preakness. Yet she held on anyway. She also didn't like the track surface very much. Early speed is a big plus for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes. Everyone thinks late runners have the advantage, however, most Belmonts have been run by quality speed horses like RA.

[Proverbs 3-5]

Borel made it clear that he was going to ride the filly in the Preakness BEFORE he won the Derby.

I'm no horse racing expert so I could be mistaken here but from all the pre race chatter I saw on NBC this afternoon they showed an interview with the filly's FIRST owner (and Calvin was standing there) who said the filly would not be raced in the Preakness as it was his belief that female horses shouldn't compete with male horses (or something to that effect). Then in the last two weeks that owner sold the filly who and THAT owner did decide to run her in the Preakness. It was then that Calvin had his first opportunity to consider riding her in the Preakness. Or did I miss something?

[sheikdetailfeather]

Here is the video replay of the Preakness today:

http://www.fandome.com/video/112201/Rachel-Alexandra-Wins-The-Preakness-Stakes-Race-Replay/

[ETL]

Source:
http://magna.equibase.com/eqbPDFChart.cfm?tid=PIM&dt=05/16/2009&ctry=USA&day=D&STYLE=PIM&RACE=A&BorP=B

[ETL]

Thanks.