Borel, Rachel Alexandra set for Preakness

Thoroughbred Times ^ | May 15, 2009 | Jeff Lowe

[gate2wire]

However you score it, Calvin Borel is the central human figure in the $1.1-million Blackberry Preakness Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course.

Whether he played his moves right will be obvious at about 6:17 p.m. EDT.

Borel will be under the microscope after making the unprecedented decision to jump off Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) winner Mine That Bird and ride Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Rachel Alexandra instead in the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown

Borel was not battling any second thoughts on Friday.

“It’s a good position to be in,” Borel said. “Like I said all along, I think she’s the best horse in the country, and I’m not going to go back on my word.”

Borel said as much before Mine That Bird had even finished cooling out after his stunning win in the Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs. Presented with a hypothetical choice between riding Mine That Bird or Rachel Alexandra, Borel said he would have to choose the filly.

Before that pick became a reality, Borel did not know for sure that it was his decision to make after Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick purchased Rachel Alexandra privately four days after the Oaks.

[gate2wire]

May 16, $1,100,000, 3yo, 1 3/16M, Pimlico Race Course, 6:15 PM ET
Post Horse Sire Weight Jockey Trainer
1 Big Drama 3, c. Montbrook 126 John Velazquez David Fawkes
2 Mine That Bird 3, g. Birdstone 126 Mike Smith Bennie Woolley, Jr.
3 Musket Man 3, c. Yonaguska 126 Eibar Coa Derek Ryan
4 Luv Gov 3, c. Ten Most Wanted 126 Jamie Theriot D. Lukas
5 Friesan Fire 3, c. A.P. Indy 126 Gabriel Saez J. Jones
6 Terrain 3, g. Sky Mesa 126 Jeremy Rose Albert Stall, Jr.
7 Papa Clem 3, c. Smart Strike 126 Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute
8 General Quarters 3, c. Sky Mesa 126 Julien Leparoux Thomas McCarthy
9 Pioneerof the Nile 3, c. Empire Maker 126 Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert
10 Flying Private 3, c. Fusaichi Pegasus 126 Alan Garcia D. Lukas
11 Take the Points 3, c. Even the Score 126 Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher
12 Tone It Down 3, c. Medaglia d'Oro 126 Kent Desormeaux William Komlo
13 Rachel Alexandra 3, f. Medaglia d'Oro

[gate2wire]

PREAKNESS EARLY BETTING

1. Big Drama - 9-1

2. Mine That Bird - 7-1

3. Musket Man - 18-1

4. Luv Gov - 25-1

5. Friesan Fire - 8-1

6. Terrain - 25-1

7. Papa Clem - 14-1

8. General Quarters - 17-1

9. Pioneerof the Nile - 7-1

10. Flying Private - 25-1

11. Take the Points - 14-1

12. Tone It Down - 19-1

13. Rachel Alexandra - 3-2

[gate2wire]

If FF is anywhere near 8-1 near post time, I will bet everything I have...everything I have left that is...

[ETL]

Thanks for the ping. Here again is some important race info:

***Free Past Performances for Preakness (pdf file - 743 KB):
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=PIM&rd=05/16/2009&cty=USA&de=D&rn=12
________________________________________

Video of Preakness contenders’ prior races and other info here:
http://www.preakness.com/raceInfo
________________________________________

National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA):
http://www.ntra.com/races.aspx?id=37073&section=races
________________________________________

More info here: ESPN website
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/index
________________________________________

YouTube video of Rachel Alexandra winning the Kentucky Oaks (filly equivalent of Kentucky Derby)... by 20 lengths!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8b8lmbwVnA

[ETL]

If FF is anywhere near 8-1 near post time, I will bet everything I have...

If he is, he'll almost certainly return $5 or more to show. That's $500 back for a $200 show bet ($300 profit). That's not bad. The horse should definitely put in a much better performance today.

[ETL]

I’m thinking of playing a few exactas with the fav on top. In a large field such as this, just about any exacta should pay well, even with a 7-5 fav on top ($40 or more).

[gate2wire]

Payoffs are normally inflated on Preakness day. Good day to try to hit some big ones.
7th race has a strong fav to single in pk 3s and 4s. #8 Dynaforce.

[ETL]

Payoffs are normally inflated on Preakness day. Good day to try to hit some big ones.

Not just the Preakness, but any of the Triple Crown races. It's because millions of people who don't normally play the horses are out in full force, basing their selections on every conceivable reason except the logical ones. This brings up the odds on the serious contenders.

[ml/nj]

I'll also be going back to FF. MTB, PotN, and RA would seem to be the other contenders in my order of BETTING preference.

ML/NJ

[gate2wire]

Okay, here we go...don’t have scratches yet so this could change...

1st Pimlico 8 w 2,4
2nd Pim Entry w 3,5
7th Pim 8 w 2,6,7
12th Pim if odds are anywhere near current(which I doubt) win bets on 1 and 5. Too many exotics to mention.

9 Cby 5 w 7,8

1 CD 5 w 2,3

3 Del 1 w 2,5
8 Del 5 w 1,8

7 Mth 5 w 8,10

Gotta go...good luck everyone.

[penowa]

Can't believe FF will be longer than 5-1, but it's possible after the Derby.

Big Drama cast in his stall early this morning, but other than a ding on his foot, no serious damage. Not a good thing any day, but a BAD thing to happen on race day.

[PGalt]

Thanks for the early betting line. I might try to get to a track this afternoon.

[Matchett-PI]

bttt

[ETL]

Free Past Performances for the entire Preakness field here (FREE!, no strings attached. Click and it's there):
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=PIM&rd=05/16/2009&cty=USA&de=D&rn=12

[jla]

I'm staying with Pioneerof the Nile, along with Big Drama.
Would bet the filly but odds will be too low.
Good luck today with F. Fire, gate2wire.

[spectre]

Borel made it clear that he was going to ride the filly in the Preakness BEFORE he won the Derby.

"Borel will be the first rider to leave a Derby champion at the Preakness in favor of another starter, brilliant filly Rachel Alexandra.

May 1, the day before the Derby, Borel rode her to a 20¼-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, a race for fillies. Borel said afterward that the filly was faster than any of the colts in the Derby field, and the oddsmaker agrees...snip

[ETL]

He also said that the decision to ride RA (over MTB) was a “no brainer”. That the only way he could lose the Preakness was to fall off the horse. (his words)

[supremedoctrine]

I have smallish win bets on Musket Man, Papa Clem and Take the Points. Neither Mine that Bird or Rachel Alex figure prominently into any of my superfecta bets.
I expect PioneeroftheNile or Musket Man to win.
They’ve been either knocking at the door or winning their entire short careers, esp. Musket Man.
There are only about 3 horses that can be eliminated from superfecta consideration though, and that leaves ten/
I was quite surprised when I finally was able to read the official Sat. Preakness edition of todays DRF , and see how many expert handicappers put this new shooter Big Drama on top. So, impressionable dolt that I am I put him on top in a few dollar supers. Gonna be a great race, and all eyes are going to be on both Borel and Rachel, and Smith and Bird, as they both disappoint. (But I am not so sure Smith will disappoint, he could do it, but like I saId before I fully expect the rail to be NO TRESPASSING territory for the entire race, as a half dozen horses “claim” it. Good luck to all .

[PGalt]

OK I got to the local track (it was packed), and lost a race at Hoosier (-30), won a race at Churchill (+10), won a race at Woodbine (+44).

Then I bet the Preakness and left. I’ve got $5 pefectas Rachel Alexandra over Big Drama, Mine That Bird, Musket Man, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, General Quarters and Pioneer of the Nile. I’ve also got each of those bets reversed in the perfecta for $2.

[NautiNurse]

I had the good fortune to see Rachel Alexandra win big in the KY Oaks. She is an amazing horse, and with Borel at the reigns again, they’ll be my pick for a solid win in the Preakness.