NRF Forecasts One Percent Decline in Holiday Sales

Yahoo Finance ^ | 10-06-2009 | Press Release/National Retail Federation

[Captain Peter Blood]

WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The National Retail Federation today released its 2009 holiday forecast, projecting holiday retail industry sales to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion.*

[Captain Peter Blood]

This forecast is overly and I mean overly optomistic. A couple of weeks ago I read where between 18% to 25% of all Bulk Container Cargo Ships are sittin at anchor in Asian Ports.

Christmas merchadise for retailers was ordered months ago and is saling for here now. Takes at least six weeks to make the trip from Asia.

So all retailers are looking at a lean Christmas, I work for Wal-Mart and I don't see a big Christmas season. To think that this article implies that we will see only a 1% decline this year is absurd.

My Personal opinion is that we are going to see at least a 5% decline or worse.

There are over 12 Million people out of work, millions more part-time or worse.

So where are the sales coming from?

People will be spending less money this year, a lot less.

Any opinions out there on this??????????

[a fool in paradise]

I generally do my Christmas shopping through the year so my buying habits for “the season” aren’t reflected in the fourth quarter sales figures.

[tioga]

I finished shopping for me daughter and am about to start for my son, both live on the opposite coast and I want to be done early for once.

[Common Sense 101]

Guess again, nitwits... it looks as though the members of the NRF are leary of being called “racists”.

[misterrob]

Ahhh....you have been reading Karl Denninger too!

[Captain Peter Blood]

I read him every day along with others and find the informtion first rate.
MSM just will not report the “sobering” facts and don’t want to.
The next crash is coming and I fear sooner than we think.

[Petronski]

Any opinions out there on this??????????

I'd say your assessment is spot-on.

[Freddd]

stimulus dollars!

[Freddd]

I haven’t been buying since the state run, fringe media ushered the immature one in to office.

Only necessities. Doing it on purpose. I don’t go to the movies, rent or buy DVD’s, I don’t save that money, I use it to donate money to the opponents of those in office in Washington, and buy books to support people like Joe The Plumber, and Governor Palin who the left, Saul Alinskyites tried to destroy. They used those tactics on the former President for years, but I didn’t know what they were then. I will buy his book too. And Cheney’s.

[Le Chien Rouge]

My opinion....(and yours is spot on)

I am employed in the trucking industry.

Normally, this is the busiest time of year due to the coming holidays.

Right now, truck traffic is waayyy down for everyone.Not much is being shipped. UPS and FEDEX are hiring fewer seasonal package handlers this year.Many trucking companies have idle trucks.

For those who are not familiar with logistics, nearly EVERYTHING in this country is shipped via trucks.

Christmas retail is going to be horrendous and I’m using that word generously.

[fightinJAG]

Yes, the forecast is WILDLY, practically IRRESPONIBLY optimistic.

OTOH, apart from the economic impact, I won’t be so sorry to see the end of Retail Christmas as we know it.

[proudpapa]

Look for the retailers that appeal to shoppers in their 20’s to be the hardest hit.

[Dark Wing]

>Christmas merchadise for retailers was ordered months ago
>and is saling for here now. Takes at least six weeks to
>make the trip from Asia.

There was so much slack in cargo box shipping that a huge supply of intermediate goods can still be in the world supply chain sitting in boxes, feeding what production is left for months, before new orders of goods are placed.

This is what the Economist said in it’s 27 July 2009 issue:

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14115878&source=features_box1

WORLD trade has been one of the worst casualties of the global economic slowdown and the source of some particularly startling figures. Towards the end of last year trade all but collapsed. According to the World Bank, the value of exports from a sample of 65 countries accounting for 97% of world trade rose by 20.2% in September, compared with a year earlier. But by November exports were worth 17.3% less than a year earlier, before slumping by a whopping 32.6% in the year to January. In March the managers of South Korea’s Busan port, long one of the world’s busiest, said that it had run out of space to store nearly 32,000 empty containers. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for the ships that transport bulk goods such as iron ore or coal, fell from 11,793 at the end of May last year to a pitiful 663 in early December.

Estimates by the World Trade Organisation suggest that trade volumes will shrink by around a tenth this year. But recent figures from big economies give reasons to hope that the worst of the slump may now be past. Even in May, the value of trade was nearly a third lower than a year earlier. But the recent awful figures mask the fact that exports and imports have held more or less steady since January.

[nascarnation]

I just heard it again on CNBC.
The liberals are trying to portray 10% unemployment as the “new normal”.

We can’t let that happen.
Unemployment has to be the hammer we use to pound Democrats in 2010.

[Dark Wing]

All those cargo containers are acting as mini-warehouses in the trade supply chain for intermediate goods.

This means trucking will now be a lagging indicator until the slack in the supply chains is eaten up. See:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/truck-tonnage-index-declined-24-percent.html

“ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said truck tonnage is likely to be choppy in the months ahead. “While I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight tonnage is about to rise significantly or consistently,” Costello said. “The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term.” He also noted that inventories, relative to sales, are still too high in much of the supply chain, especially in the manufacturing and wholesale industries. “As a result, this is likely to be the first time in memory that truck tonnage doesn’t lead the macro economy out of a recession. Today, many new product orders can be fulfilled with current inventories, not new production, thus suppressing truck tonnage.””

The number of train cars filled with intermediate goods in the train yard of outside the Arlington, Tx GM “AKA Government Motors” SUV plant is huge.

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

Christmas officially started on Oct 1. My local Walgreens was already stocking the shelves with Christmas stuff. I even talked to the guy at the store. He wasn't happy about it, either, but he just does what he's instructed to do.

A big BOO to Walgreens for starting the holiday two months early. Chistmas now officially lasts over three months long. It finally ends when the last Christmas tree gets thrown out - usually the middle of January. But there are some diehards who extend it even to the end of January.

It's weird to have Christmas stuff already up when Halloween hasn't even happened. And forget about Thanksgiving. I saw ONE Thanksgiving decoration last year, and that was it. The merchants are only interested in making money for Christmas - that's all this holiday is about. That's why they keep extending it & extending it. Thanks to all you Santa Claus Christians who make it possible!

[Dark Wing]

This is from the ATA web site. The media reported that trucking was up:

“What happened with the index this month?
ATA Editor Bob Costello

ATA’s seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage increased 1.2 percent in July. That gain doesn’t counteract June’s 2.4 percent decrease, but any rise in tonnage is good news. The not seasonally adjusted tonnage index dropped 0.9 percent.”

This is the part that was left out:

“How does this July’s index compare to the same time last year?

ATA Editor Bob Costello

Compared with July 2008, the tonnage contracted 10.4 percent. That’s a significant year-over-year decrease, but it’s the best reading we’ve seen since February 2009.”

[Dark Wing]

Minus 10% truck traffic from 2008 is the “New Normal.”

See:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/truck-tonnage-index-increased-in-august.html

[indylindy]

My family stopped Christmas gifts when it became all about the gifts. I am not interested in Holiday trees or Winter trees.

We enjoy a great evening with family and friends and actually discuss the real meaning. The little kids get some gifts until they are 12.

But, I think you are right. The money isn’t there for people this year.