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Sunspots: End of Cycle 23/24 solar minimum?
examiner.com ^ | 10-25-09 | Steve LaNore

Posted on 10/26/2009 3:15:43 PM PDT by steveo

No matter what conclusions one gravitates towards regarding climate change and potential solar impacts, the data is irrefutable: the sun is slowly becoming more active.

The 10.7cm radio flux spiked in late September with its highest reading in 18 months; now, and this is very significant compared to the pattern since March 2008, it has spiked again, exceeding the late September number and reaching a Cycle 24 maximum of 76.9.

This is still a very low value compared to the solar maximum flux numbers, which routinely exceed 200. However, it is an upward move from the “basement” numbers of the past 19 months which have typically run between 66 and 70.

The plot included with this report shows an gradual but definite upward slope in the radio flux during the past two months; such a consistent slope more strongly suggests (more than any other time in the past two years) that the sun is merging from its deepest solar minimum since 1913.

A well-defined sunspot group emerged on October 23, ending the 20-day blank streak and also emitting a moderate (class C) solar flare. The greater intensity of the flare is also a clue to heightened magnetism within the sunspot groups.

Given that there will no doubt be more blank days in 2009 between these solar spikes, this year may move upward from its present ranking of 6th place for lack of sunspots to perhaps 2nd or 3rd place. So the Cycle 23/24 solar minimum seems headed towards the history books as of this writing.

While confidence in this claim is not 100%, it’s definitely better than even money based on the data.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; godsgravesglyphs; ham; hamradio; hamradiohamradio; radio; science; solarscience; sunspots
I noticed this group the other day. It was interesting because it looked pretty complicated...

And if you look at some of the images here they show more activity than meets the eye...

1 posted on 10/26/2009 3:15:43 PM PDT by steveo
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To: AlexW; bikerman; Blue_Spark; bitterohiogunclinger; Bobalu; buccaneer81; camerakid400; ...
There may be hope yet! (the real kind, not the D.C. garbage)


2 posted on 10/26/2009 3:17:21 PM PDT by steveo (Two Thousand Ten - Never Again)
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To: steveo

Can we physically do something to the sun? This will only give credence to global warming.


3 posted on 10/26/2009 3:20:54 PM PDT by wastedyears (Clyde Shelton is my hero.)
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To: steveo

Where can I buy sunspot credits? How do we sequester sunspots? Can China and India pay their “fair share” to save the Sun? WWAD? What Would Algore Do? What does Lindsey Graham say to John F’n Kerry about this when they spoon at night? /rhetorical


4 posted on 10/26/2009 3:21:54 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: SERKIT

No matter the truth they will blame white male capitalism.


5 posted on 10/26/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by omega4179
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To: steveo

Finally, I am ready for some improved propagation.


6 posted on 10/26/2009 3:29:19 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.)
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To: 75thOVI; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; BBell; ...
 
Catastrophism
 
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic · subscribe ·
 

7 posted on 10/26/2009 3:33:38 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: steveo

We’ve got to do something about the sunspot crisis, which is all Bush’s fault of course. Convene a UN task force!


8 posted on 10/26/2009 3:33:41 PM PDT by colorado tanker (Mr. Flyingsaucerballoonboymediawhoreman - this Bud's for you!)
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To: StayAt HomeMother; Ernest_at_the_Beach; 1ofmanyfree; 21twelve; 24Karet; 2ndDivisionVet; 31R1O; ...

· join list or digest · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post a topic · subscribe ·

 
Gods
Graves
Glyphs
To all -- please ping me to other topics which are appropriate for the GGG list.
GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother, and Ernest_at_the_Beach
 

·Dogpile · Archaeologica · ArchaeoBlog · Archaeology · Biblical Archaeology Society ·
· Discover · Nat Geographic · Texas AM Anthro News · Yahoo Anthro & Archaeo · Google ·
· The Archaeology Channel · Excerpt, or Link only? · cgk's list of ping lists ·


9 posted on 10/26/2009 3:34:01 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: steveo

maybe someone should propose trading sunspot credits to tackle the issue.


10 posted on 10/26/2009 3:34:56 PM PDT by MNDude (The Republican Congress Economy--1995-2007)
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To: steveo

That’s all too bad. Better if the Sun stays quiet long enough to squelch this Global Warming VS. It seems medieval to look to the sun to determine if or when western civilization will enter a political dark age of unified totalitarian socialism and ever declining prosperity.


11 posted on 10/26/2009 3:40:11 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (di tray hoi den La Vang)
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To: steveo
So the Cycle 23/24 solar minimum seems headed towards the history books as of this writing.

If solar minimums are related to global cooling, the end of a solar minimum is a cause for celebration!

12 posted on 10/26/2009 3:49:14 PM PDT by TheDon
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To: steveo
I'll have to check back on this thread in a little while, I have some errands to run.

But yes, the past couple weeks there have been some honest to goodness F-layer 10M openings and they have been some fun.

Just in time, A few weeks ago I got my old HR2600 out of the storage room and all dusted off and spruced up. Working great - but I do need to get serious about building a good 10M antenna now. I have my portable setup but it is essentially a 3/4 wave vertical on 10, so I can do better.

13 posted on 10/26/2009 3:56:43 PM PDT by Clinging Bitterly (MMM MMM MM!)
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To: steveo

...can’t even see ‘em at around 67. I want my X-class flares! I want to sunbathe on an Arctic beach! ;-)


14 posted on 10/26/2009 4:09:06 PM PDT by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote)
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To: Clinging Bitterly
I love 10M, next to 40 my favorite. To those reading that have never operated on 10, when conditions are right you can talk all over the world with a modest radio and antenna set-up.

I could talk to hams in Europe and Africa in the morning and to the eastern Pacific in the afternoon.

Great hobby... keeps the brain cells working.

15 posted on 10/26/2009 4:17:55 PM PDT by steveo (Two Thousand Ten - Never Again)
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To: steveo

Thread bump.
Thanks for the ping.


16 posted on 10/26/2009 4:20:53 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: steveo

count me in steveo...


17 posted on 10/26/2009 4:50:22 PM PDT by ronnied
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To: TheDon

There are mixed emotions about emerging from this long, long minimum—though we’re not out yet. But for the sake of 3-4 billion souls who live very close to the soil this is a good thing, and that takes precedence.

Also, until we can define the “tail” of this inverted curve we are limited in proclaiming how totally this dwarfs Al Gore, the IPCC, and all the bogus science around AGW.

As we ponder a much weaker Cycle 24, the new, real science around Solar Cycle forcing of climate will help us predict whether we are in for 40 years of lower temps, with the possibility of millions dead from failed crops, starvation, war, and disease.

Combatting that may be the Marshall Plan of the 21st century.


18 posted on 10/26/2009 5:45:53 PM PDT by DJtex
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To: steveo
40 I haven't worked so much yet, I don't have quite enough antenna to compete. After my long hiatus from the hobby I went for a quick antenna solution at home and in my somewhat limited space I stretched out a G5RV early this spring (while it was still snowing). Now, I can testify to this particular antenna's effectiveness on 20M but despite the hype I'm not impressed with it on any other band. Sure it'll tune easy just about anywhere but 60M (and with some difficulty even there), but it is clear it doesn't deliver either efficiency or a good radiation pattern anywhere but 20M.

Now that the good antenna weather is returning (wind & rain plus some ice) I aim to get busy putting some other sizes/shapes of metal in the air. I can, after figuring out one far corner support, pretty easily fit a full wave 80M loop (at less than optimum height) and with balanced line and my tuner I might get something out of that. The biggest handicap at my location is received noise on the lower bands and perhaps the loop will solve some of that.

For a 10M antenna I seem to have collected an abundance of 75 Ohm TV coax and I'm going to try what I call a coaxial 1/2 wave (I have seen it called a vertical bazooka) or maybe an end fed like a j-pole, slim-jim, or zepp variant. I don't think there’d be much benefit in going to the extra trouble putting together a 5/8 wave but if someone gave me one ready made I'd take it.

19 posted on 10/26/2009 7:00:14 PM PDT by Clinging Bitterly (MMM MMM MM!)
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To: steveo
Yes, the solar data would appear to indicate that solar activity, a more active solar minimum than usual, has more to do with climate variability than human influence.
This is not to say that urban heat island effects don't increase temperatures as urbanization increases.
We are just getting more solar data in as new remote sensing platforms return new data. In the coming years we will have a much greater picture as far as the sun earth system due to new imaging. We are really just begining to understand how much space weather actually influences earth weather and climate. Therefore, everyone needs to realize how fragile life is on this planet.
It is always possible that if the sun alters its activity, by stepping up intensity we will all be in for potentially life threating consequences. Desertification is already on the increase globally. Fresh water is tapped out and contamination issues are everywhere. Increased radiation reaching the surface can destroy crops globally. We have some big storms on the horizon...
The solar storms could shut down our power grid to knocking down our network of satellites.
Therefore the sun has more to do with climate variability, however human influence through habitat destruction and contamination are altering our atmospheric chemistry and rainfalls all around the world. Our global environmental crisis is only getting more complex by the day.
20 posted on 10/26/2009 7:54:52 PM PDT by Soul Citizen
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To: ThanhPhero
It seems medieval to look to the sun to determine if or when western civilization will enter a political dark age of unified totalitarian socialism and ever declining prosperity.

Mankind is perverse in the fact that we repeat this particular pattern over and over again. In times of natural climate change the average man turns to soothsayers who claim to be able to cure the problem through sophisticated witchcraft and crazy schemes. Once upon a time these frauds would claim the best of every harvest and human sacrifices. Now they claim the best of every harvest (taxation) and they still demand that others sacrifice for their cause.

Same story, different era.

21 posted on 10/27/2009 12:14:45 AM PDT by coconutt2000 (NO MORE PEACE FOR OIL!!! DOWN WITH TYRANTS, TERRORISTS, AND TIMIDCRATS!!!! (3-T's For World Peace))
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To: steveo

More data here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/26/maybe-the-sun-really-means-business-this-time/


22 posted on 10/27/2009 2:11:46 AM PDT by AdmSmith
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To: steveo; Defendingliberty; WL-law; Normandy; TenthAmendmentChampion; FrPR; enough_idiocy; ...
 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

23 posted on 10/27/2009 2:12:02 AM PDT by steelyourfaith (Limit all U.S. politicians to two terms: One in office and one in prison! to s)
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To: steveo
Several years ago we worked a contest (CQWW) from Iceland with a /TF8 call. 10m opened up and oh my the pileups we had. We had something like 150watts, onto a slope antenna attached to a chain link fence, and a microwave tower. I think we worked 50 countries on 10m.
24 posted on 10/27/2009 10:16:12 AM PDT by DYngbld (I have read the back of the Book and we WIN!!!!)
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To: Soul Citizen
Reports on new discoveries ~

(1) Cyanobacter infected with certain viruses in the ocean increase their oxygen production several times over the unstimulated background level. This produces half the oxygen found in our atmosphere.

(2) Scientists reveal they can emulate the process and use genes from four different bacterial strains to load into cyanobacter and give it enough umph to take ordinary carbon dioxide and turn it into oxygen and a potential fuel not all that different from "light crude".

(3)Which means we have an entirely new category of bio-weapon which can also power our automobiles and every other machine on Earth at little cost directly from the Sun.

Shur 'nuf gon' be 'citin around here.

25 posted on 11/16/2009 4:52:08 PM PST by muawiyah (Git Out The Way)
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