Skip to comments.Sunspots: End of Cycle 23/24 solar minimum?
Posted on 10/26/2009 3:15:43 PM PDT by steveo
No matter what conclusions one gravitates towards regarding climate change and potential solar impacts, the data is irrefutable: the sun is slowly becoming more active.
The 10.7cm radio flux spiked in late September with its highest reading in 18 months; now, and this is very significant compared to the pattern since March 2008, it has spiked again, exceeding the late September number and reaching a Cycle 24 maximum of 76.9.
This is still a very low value compared to the solar maximum flux numbers, which routinely exceed 200. However, it is an upward move from the basement numbers of the past 19 months which have typically run between 66 and 70.
The plot included with this report shows an gradual but definite upward slope in the radio flux during the past two months; such a consistent slope more strongly suggests (more than any other time in the past two years) that the sun is merging from its deepest solar minimum since 1913.
A well-defined sunspot group emerged on October 23, ending the 20-day blank streak and also emitting a moderate (class C) solar flare. The greater intensity of the flare is also a clue to heightened magnetism within the sunspot groups.
Given that there will no doubt be more blank days in 2009 between these solar spikes, this year may move upward from its present ranking of 6th place for lack of sunspots to perhaps 2nd or 3rd place. So the Cycle 23/24 solar minimum seems headed towards the history books as of this writing.
While confidence in this claim is not 100%, its definitely better than even money based on the data.
And if you look at some of the images here they show more activity than meets the eye...
Can we physically do something to the sun? This will only give credence to global warming.
Where can I buy sunspot credits? How do we sequester sunspots? Can China and India pay their “fair share” to save the Sun? WWAD? What Would Algore Do? What does Lindsey Graham say to John F’n Kerry about this when they spoon at night? /rhetorical
No matter the truth they will blame white male capitalism.
Finally, I am ready for some improved propagation.
We’ve got to do something about the sunspot crisis, which is all Bush’s fault of course. Convene a UN task force!
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maybe someone should propose trading sunspot credits to tackle the issue.
That’s all too bad. Better if the Sun stays quiet long enough to squelch this Global Warming VS. It seems medieval to look to the sun to determine if or when western civilization will enter a political dark age of unified totalitarian socialism and ever declining prosperity.
If solar minimums are related to global cooling, the end of a solar minimum is a cause for celebration!
But yes, the past couple weeks there have been some honest to goodness F-layer 10M openings and they have been some fun.
Just in time, A few weeks ago I got my old HR2600 out of the storage room and all dusted off and spruced up. Working great - but I do need to get serious about building a good 10M antenna now. I have my portable setup but it is essentially a 3/4 wave vertical on 10, so I can do better.
...can’t even see ‘em at around 67. I want my X-class flares! I want to sunbathe on an Arctic beach! ;-)
I could talk to hams in Europe and Africa in the morning and to the eastern Pacific in the afternoon.
Great hobby... keeps the brain cells working.
Thanks for the ping.
count me in steveo...
There are mixed emotions about emerging from this long, long minimum—though we’re not out yet. But for the sake of 3-4 billion souls who live very close to the soil this is a good thing, and that takes precedence.
Also, until we can define the “tail” of this inverted curve we are limited in proclaiming how totally this dwarfs Al Gore, the IPCC, and all the bogus science around AGW.
As we ponder a much weaker Cycle 24, the new, real science around Solar Cycle forcing of climate will help us predict whether we are in for 40 years of lower temps, with the possibility of millions dead from failed crops, starvation, war, and disease.
Combatting that may be the Marshall Plan of the 21st century.
Now that the good antenna weather is returning (wind & rain plus some ice) I aim to get busy putting some other sizes/shapes of metal in the air. I can, after figuring out one far corner support, pretty easily fit a full wave 80M loop (at less than optimum height) and with balanced line and my tuner I might get something out of that. The biggest handicap at my location is received noise on the lower bands and perhaps the loop will solve some of that.
For a 10M antenna I seem to have collected an abundance of 75 Ohm TV coax and I'm going to try what I call a coaxial 1/2 wave (I have seen it called a vertical bazooka) or maybe an end fed like a j-pole, slim-jim, or zepp variant. I don't think there’d be much benefit in going to the extra trouble putting together a 5/8 wave but if someone gave me one ready made I'd take it.